Socio-economic potential of the region and its elements. The economic conditions of recent years are characterized by deepening interregional contrasts and the continuing concentration of economic activity and financial results in a limited number of subjects of the Federation. A number of Russian territories are experiencing the problem of declining or underutilization of socio-economic potential. Therefore, the task of a general assessment of the region’s potential and analysis of its structure, the causes of economic and social difficulties, anticipating further developments of the situation and identifying priority areas of economic growth is urgent.

The concept of “economic potential” of a region is widely used in the literature and in practice. Potential comes from the Latin word potentia, meaning the degree of power in some respect, the totality of means, capabilities necessary for something. Thus, potential is not something that has been revealed, but something that is latent and can be manifested under certain conditions. Hence, " economic potential “is a set of resources to achieve economic goals.

The economic potential of the territory includes:

1) geopolitical potential, determined by geographical location, socio-political conditions and development factors;

2) natural potential– natural conditions that surround a person and are used by him to ensure his life; forces of nature that are directly involved in material and intangible production to meet the needs of society (in market conditions they acquire a value form, provide revenue to regional budgets, and form the material basis for the growth of well-being of the region’s population);

3) demographic potential (labor)– population size, its gender and age structure. Characterized by the possibility of involving the active part of the population and labor resources in production;

4) production potential– this is the material and technical base of the territory, the possibility of its use in various sectors of the economy;

5) financial potential– financial resources of the region and the possibilities of attracting them.

6) potential of the social sphere, determined by the capabilities of the functioning of healthcare, housing and communal services, trade, public catering, etc.;

7) spiritual potential determined by the historical experience of society, traditions, the state of science, culture, education;

8) managerial potential determined by the level of personnel, the state of organizational forms, management methods, etc.

A comprehensive consideration of the regions' potential, including its temporal and spatial parameters, structural composition, quantitative and qualitative assessments, conditions and mechanisms for implementation, allows us to identify the current state and develop a strategy for the development of the territory. The correct choice of strategy allows you to concentrate efforts and resources on realizing the potential for economic development and thereby ensure the effective development of regions in market conditions.

Asocial factors that arise in the absence of complexity in the development of the regional economy and in the presence of long-term imbalances have a negative impact on the economic potential of the region and its capabilities. They are formed under the influence of internal and external reasons.

Most often, asocial factors appear as a result of ill-conceived economic decisions and the low socio-cultural potential of the region. Naturally, asocial factors lead to losses in the region’s economy.

Currently, the concept is becoming relevant socio-economic potential (SEP), the result of which is, first of all, an increase in the level of well-being of the population. It is in this aspect that we can talk about the degree of effectiveness of using SES.

The UN identifies two components of well-being: standard of living (consumption level) and quality of life, which includes indicators such as population health, level of education, environmental quality, and level of social tension. Sustainability refers to the ability to maintain a level of well-being without sudden downturns. Accordingly, a socio-economic system that provides a consistently high level of well-being for citizens can be considered to have high development potential. In this case, prospects and the future state of the system must be taken into account, i.e. there is a need to evaluate not only the achieved level, but also the system’s ability to change. This problem can be solved only with a comprehensive analysis of economic growth factors.

The magnitude of socio-economic potential is characterized by the potential reserves and capabilities of the region when using the entire complex of resources available on the territory, using the features of its structure, geographical location, inertia of economic growth, and social and institutional factors. Therefore, the analysis of the regional economic system is based on the consideration of the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the three components of the territorial-economic system - territory, population and economy.

Regional socio-economic potential is the “economic” sum of its constituent potentials (Table 2.5):

SEP = RP + EP + SP,

where: SEP – socio-economic potential of the region;

RP - resource potential;

EP – economic potential;

SP – social potential.

Traditional assessment systems are based on the study of the constituent elements of socio-economic potential by determining the values ​​of indicators characterizing particular types of potential, such as production, natural resource, labor, financial and others.

Resource potential is an important characteristic of the development of the region, which is the total value of spatial, natural resource potentials and the potential of the population.

Economic potential represents the total value of production, transport and financial potentials.

Social potential, being an important indicator of the development of the territory, characterizes the standard of living of the population and the degree of development of the social sphere of the region.

Of great importance for the development of the region is the possibility of using its economic potential, which is defined as “resources, sources, funds and reserves of the territory, as well as mechanisms (ways and forms) for their involvement in economic circulation at the present time or in the coming period to achieve specific goals” . Recently, the following methods have begun to be used to assess the economic potential of a territory.

Using the region's production potential is a multifaceted and complex process. Therefore, in our opinion, the analysis of the achieved level of its use should be carried out using a system of indicators. A central place in this system should be occupied by a general indicator that makes it possible to compare the actual output of products by enterprises located in the region with its potential output, which enterprises are able to provide with the most efficient use of these production capacities, as well as labor, material and energy resources. As such a general indicator, you can use the coefficient of utilization of production potential Kipp, determined by the formula:

Kipp = Вр/N р, (4.1)

where Вр is the volume of output in the region (or any economic system of a regional nature);

N r - production potential of the region (economic system of a regional nature).

The calculation of a general indicator is fraught with some difficulties, since the methodology for determining the value of production potential has practically not yet been developed.

Some scientists believe that the production potential of a territorial complex is equal to the sum of the production capacities of the enterprises that form it, minus the losses of production capacity caused by the discrepancy between the availability of individual production resources and the need for them. When determining the value of a region’s production potential, one cannot limit oneself to taking into account the influence of only non-

provision of resources to enterprises in the region.

Regional factor markets have always been and are local markets. The degree of localization of regional markets for the three most important factors of production - labor, land and capital - decreases as the division of labor develops and the internationalization of production. Among the three listed factors, capital is the least localized resource; it can be least controlled within a particular region.

Capital as an economic resource exists in two forms: as financial and as physical. Physical capital invested in machinery and equipment has limited mobility, while a key characteristic of financial capital is its spatial mobility. Unlike labor and especially land, the regional supply of which is determined by regional conditions and is almost inelastic, especially in the short term, the supply of capital is elastic.

The regional elasticity of capital depends on many factors, so the degree of localization of regional capital markets varies greatly from country to country, as does the regional elasticity of capital supply.

The most important of these factors are:

 features of the organization of production in a particular country and region;

 structure of the banking system;

 the degree of development of interregional ties and the level of internationalization of the economy.

Features of the organization of production in the regions relate to the concentration of production and ownership. In large companies that produce throughout the country, financial resources are concentrated, as a rule, in the region where the company's head office is located. Decisions on the development of production and investment, promotion of new technologies and goods are made by the head office; capital in this case is exogenous for the individual region.

At a high level of capital concentration, the sectoral structure of the economy dominates over the regional one, since, as a rule, financial resources are concentrated in a relatively small number of regions, most often capital ones. All other regions, especially peripheral and underdeveloped ones, in which production is represented

only regional branches of large companies find themselves dependent on decisions regarding the allocation of capital made by parent organizations.

The sectoral structure of production and ownership has a different impact on the regional market of financial resources, if the regional economy is dominated by small and medium-sized enterprises, whose economic interests are concentrated in a given region, investment decisions are made within this region.

Features of the concentration of production and ownership determine the formation of demand for investment in the region: whether it is exogenous, that is, formed independently of the region, or formed within the region itself.

The current structure of the banking system and the distribution of financial institutions have an impact on the regional capital market that is similar to the sectoral structure of production and property, but this impact concerns the regional supply of capital.

Different countries have historically developed different banking systems: either dominated by large national banks or dominated by regional banks. The regional supply of capital is not strictly determined by its intraregional reserve, since capital is mobile; nevertheless, the regional concentration of banks

and financial institutions has a strong influence on the supply of capital resources in various regions.

The third factor from among the above is similar in its influence to the sectoral structure of production, but is associated with the activities of transnational companies in the region, the scale and capabilities of which are limited by the national economy. It should also be taken into account that enterprises may have some

other very real situations with the provision and use of production resources.

Thus, some enterprises in the region may be abundantly provided with certain types of resources, that is, the availability of certain types of resources may exceed the need for them calculated according to progressive standards to fulfill the production plan, corresponding to the fullest utilization of production capacity. Enterprises

can also improve the use of living labor, raw materials, materials, fuel, energy, and more widely involve waste material resources into economic circulation. The result is a kind of excess of resources created by the efforts of the enterprise itself. The incomplete provision of some enterprises with labor, material and energy resources leads to partial underutilization of the production capacities of each of them, and ultimately to a decrease in their production potential and the production potential of the region as a whole.

The excess resources we are considering can be used by enterprises to increase their ability to produce products, that is, their production potential. This increase can occur in several ways. The first is a slight increase in the production capacity of the enterprise. The second one is for

through the use of incomplete reserves of production capacity in individual workshops and in individual areas, in groups of equipment, as well as cooperation in the use of production capacity with other enterprises in the region. The third (mixed) - partly due to an increase in production capacity, and partly - without increasing it. There is every reason to consider the third way to be the most acceptable and most promising in increasing the production potential of enterprises in the region due to the excess supply of certain types of resources, as well as a more rational use of resources. Thus, the value of the region’s production potential N p can be determined by the formula:

where N p is the value of the region’s production potential, thousand rubles. gross or standard net production;

Mi is the production capacity of the i-th enterprise in the region;

NM is the amount of underutilized (underutilized) capacity of the i-th enterprise due to its incomplete provision of labor, material and energy resources;

∆N i is the increase in the production potential of the i-th enterprise without increasing its production capacity;

k is the total number of enterprises in the region;

l is the number of enterprises in the region with underutilized (underutilized) capacity due to incomplete provision of labor, material and energy resources;

m is the number of enterprises in the region that provide an increase in potential without increasing production capacity.

The remaining indicators, with the exception of the coefficient of utilization of production potential, can be divided into three relatively separate subsystems.

Production, being the main sphere of economic activity, influences socio-economic development and provides most of the economic processes. It can be presented as an independent object of economic assessment. However, there are methodological difficulties here. How can they be overcome?

Basic principles of the methodology

In accordance with the well-known paradigm, production potential is:

1) The real volume of production that can be produced with full use of available resources;

2) Existing and potential production capabilities, the availability of production factors, the provision of its defining types of resources.

These concepts embody a complete contradiction. If the first determines output at the expense of available resources, then the second, on the contrary, determines the resources to ensure output. What is production potential really about – output or resources?

When exploring the production potential of a country, region, or enterprise, one cannot fail to mention a more general concept - economic potential.

Economic potential is the total ability of sectors of the national economy to produce industrial and agricultural products, carry out capital construction, transport goods, and provide services to the population at a certain historical moment. Economic potential is determined by:

• the quantity of labor resources and the quality of their professional training,
• the volume of production capacity of industrial and construction organizations,
• agricultural production capabilities,
• the length of transport routes and the availability of vehicles,
• development of non-production sectors,
• achievements of science and technology,
• resources of explored minerals,

that is, the elements that together constitute the productive forces of society. Economic potential depends on the size of national wealth.

The given definition of economic potential is not subject to any comprehension at all. It has everything: abilities, people, opportunities, industries, infrastructure, natural resources, national wealth. How can all this be simultaneously measured and assessed, and what will such an assessment yield? Logically, economic potential should include production potential, but how is also a question that currently has no answer. In addition, in determining economic potential there are parameters that cannot be determined by direct measurement (professional training, achievements of science and technology, explored mineral resources, etc.), which complicates the calculation.

According to Yu.V. Erygin and T.R. Ulitskaya, potential in the general understanding is considered as a set of sources, opportunities, means and reserves that can be put into action and used to achieve a certain goal. However, potential is more than just a given set of defined capabilities of a system to function effectively for various purposes. Potential is the basic element of an enterprise, combining the goals, driving forces and sources of its development. Its content is determined by the following characteristics:

• potential is a dynamic characteristic and manifests itself only in the process of its use;
• the use of potential must be accompanied by its growth;
• the process of using and building capacity is continuous and mutually reinforcing.

The definition of potential given earlier has its drawbacks. According to the indicated characteristics, potential cannot be a dynamic characteristic, since in the broad scientific understanding it is a reserve, that is, “static”, and reduced to a certain point in time. The use of potential is not necessarily accompanied by its growth. Quite the contrary, use reduces production potential if its reproduction is not provided for. Capacity utilization and capacity building are generally not continuous and complementary. That is, in the real economy, everything does not happen as indicated in the definition.

It is well known to characterize economic potential as a complex that includes a number of interrelated components.

Based on the definition of potential as the material basis of economic systems, the following types of potentials can be distinguished:

• natural resource or, in a broader sense, environmental and economic potential, taking into account the level of environmental well-being of the territory and its recreational capabilities;
• production potential, which includes investment potential (when investments are directed to the development or renewal of fixed assets);
• innovation potential, reflecting scientific and technical factors in the functioning of economic systems. Educational potential is directly adjacent to it. In total, they can be characterized as intellectual potential, which includes the cultural level of the people of a given country or region;
• labor (personnel) potential, taking into account the scale and quality factors of labor resources. The monetary assessment of the labor potential of an enterprise, taking into account qualitative factors (qualification, health, structure, etc.) is considered as personnel potential and is an important component of the price of the enterprise.

Economic literature also uses such concepts as financial potential, export potential, potential for integration relations, etc., which play the role of private characteristics of the country’s economic potential.

This definition provides the basis for the classification of economic potential, which most accurately reflects the capabilities of economic systems, but has some drawbacks. The indicated components of economic potential do not represent a structured system. There are no rational proportions of the components of the potential, objective units of measurement have not been defined, as well as methods for integrating the components into the overall economic potential.

There is a classification of economic categories proposed by the French researcher Gilles Deleuze in his work “The Nature of Flows”. Referring to the works of the famous specialist on flows in political economy Daniel Antje and his work “Flows and Stocks”, as well as the results of his own analysis, he proposed the following conceptual apparatus of economic flows: “From the point of view of economics, a flow can be called the value of certain quantities of services or money transferred from one pole to the other. This is what flows from one pole to the other, what goes in and out, and the stock is what is represented as the material or legal possession of one of the considered poles; here we clearly see the correlative nature of the two concepts"

In this regard, economic action can generate a flow, and economic potential can generate a stock. As a result of this approach, the economic system is described most rationally and adequately.

To reveal the essence of economic potential, let us consider its structure, derived from the reproduction cycle presented in Fig. 1.

Rice. 1. Derivation of the concept of economic potential from the reproduction cycle

As is known, the reproduction cycle begins with production, then distribution occurs, then exchange and consumption (K. Marx pointed this out). The completion of the consumption process gives a signal to the economic system, and the reproductive cycle repeats. In the real economy, these phases of reproduction, as a rule, are shifted in time and are superimposed on many factors. Therefore, the process looks like a continuous circulation of resources, goods, finances, and factors of production.

In the presented diagram, the economic potential is distributed among the phases of the reproduction cycle. At the same time, production potential refers to the “production” phase of the cycle and includes the potential of non-current assets, the potential of working capital and the integrated potential of jobs.

The “production” phase of the cycle also includes reproduction or investment potential, which ensures intermediate consumption and consumption of fixed capital. The “distribution” phase of the cycle is characterized by the infrastructural potential of the economic system and is determined by its ability to provide exchange transactions. Exchange occurs under market conditions (between institutional units) or in a planned manner (within an institutional unit).

The “exchange” phase of the cycle reflects market relations in the economy and is characterized by marketing potential. Marketing potential determines intermediate and final consumption in the system, as well as consumption of fixed capital. In this case, a functional relationship is established between marketing and investment potentials. Final consumption determines a new cycle of production and, accordingly, intermediate consumption. Human potential determines consumption potential, demographic and labor potential. The consumption potential forms the value of final consumption at the corresponding phase of the cycle. Labor potential is functionally related to the potential of jobs and, accordingly, to production potential. Innovation potential is functionally connected with production, infrastructure, marketing, investment potentials and affects the phases of the cycle: “production”, “distribution”, “exchange”.

As can be seen from the diagram presented in Fig. 1, the types of economic potential under consideration are functionally combined into a common structure, and the connections of the potentials determine its rational proportions. It follows from this that each of the considered types of economic potential must have a strictly defined meaning. This will optimize losses in the economic system.

Economic potential is an integral function of the listed components of potentials, taking into account their interrelations.

Quantitative and qualitative assessments of potential in the economy

Let's consider an economic system in which a reproduction cycle operates.

It is advisable to express quantitative assessments of the system’s operation in terms of “input – output”, as proposed by V. Leontiev. In this case, the amount of output, measured in physical or value terms, will reflect the economic characteristics of the system. However, the output of the economy must be consumed in the conditions of the existence of the reproduction cycle. Consequently, it is necessary to take into account not only the output capabilities of the economy, but also the possibilities of consuming output, which do not always correspond to each other. For example, an increase in consumption in an economic system implies an increase in output, that is, new potential opportunities. A decrease in consumption, on the contrary, limits output. As a result, we obtain some potential quantitative characteristic, which is determined by the closedness of the economic system.

Qualitative assessments of economic potential are relative indicators that allow us to determine the effectiveness of its use. For example, a comparison of several economic systems based on key indicators makes it possible to determine their relative efficiency and competitiveness. In one economic system, due to changes in certain factors, the input-output indicators can significantly change, which allows us to draw conclusions about the qualitative side of the potential. Due to the specificity of their assessments, in practice it is advisable to reflect qualitative indicators in relative units or indices.

In economics, there are horizontal and integral indices and indexing systems. Horizontal indices represent the ratio of changes in one parameter over different periods of time (horizontal time axis). Dynamics indices reflect changes in a parameter in a given time interval. Vertical indices represent the ratio of several parameters (vertical axis of values) for a strictly defined, uniform time. An example of vertical indexing is the ranking of several subjects at a specific time.

The concept of potential extends to both quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the economic system and its individual elements. If we imagine the potential in the form of a certain reserve, we obtain a basic concept for the economic category under consideration: “Potential is a generalized reserve in the economic system, accumulated in past periods, which can be used in current economic activity.”

In this case, the generalized stock should be interpreted not only as available resources, but also as management, established institutions, infrastructure, living standards of the population, etc. Considering the continuity of the reproduction cycle in the economic system, trends in output changes (trend), taking into account consumption restrictions, can most relevantly reflect potential function of the system, that is, to characterize the capabilities of the economy. Consequently, the output trend, expressed in physical or value terms, is, in its economic essence, equivalent to economic potential.

It is advisable to identify the potential in the economy with the trends of the main indicators of the economic system, and this applies to both quantitative and qualitative indicators.

Thus, by determining the trend of the functioning of the economic system in the past, normalized time interval, it is possible to relevantly display the magnitude of the potential. The trend is determined by approximating functions (arithmetic mean, linear, quadratic, polynomial, etc.), which make it possible to obtain the divergence of the potential according to the trend parameter.

Absolute and relative potential values

Features of the economic system lie in the impossibility of relevant display of all its parameters. So, for example, in production, available resources, inventories, technological processes, and control actions cannot guarantee the expected amount of output. Moreover, in value terms, output cannot be decomposed in detail into its constituent elements of costs and production process (parameters), since the parameters include material and intangible components. The same control action or quality of the production process, under certain conditions, can generate completely different volumes of output in value terms. Consequently, direct transfer of the cost of material output to an intangible control action will be incorrect. The way out of this situation is to move to a description of economic processes and potentials in absolute and relative terms. In this case, absolute values ​​determine material components that can be measured in natural and monetary terms. Relative values ​​are used as some dimensionless coefficients that determine intangible components and complement the absolute values ​​of production potential.

Production potential as part of economic potential

Analysis of the structure of economic potential allows us to determine the relationship between production and economic potentials. This is shown in the diagram (Fig. 2).

In accordance with existing views on the problem, economic potential includes innovation, production, infrastructure, marketing and labor potential.

Production potential includes the following components: potential of non-current assets, potential of working capital, potential of jobs, investment potential. In the diagram, the dotted lines indicate the functional relationships between the component potentials.

Rice. 2. Structure of economic potential

Production potential is part of economic potential. It is functionally connected with labor, innovation and marketing potentials. At the system level, it is production potential that creates jobs, which act as functional feedback for labor potential. As a result, there is a balanced redistribution of flows and stocks in the system; potentials are structured. Determining the weights of the components of economic potential in the structure is an important task of scientific research, as it makes it possible to determine the state of the system and make objective forecasts.

Reproduction cycle in the national accounting system

Let's consider the reproduction cycle in terms of the SNA and economic statistics. A feature of the SNA is the reflection of reproduction in a group of sequentially related accounts according to the system of statistical observations adopted in the world economic community. Invoices are formed in cost terms. They cover operations of production, income generation, income distribution, use of income and capital accumulation, that is, they reflect the main phases of the reproduction cycle in the economy. Based on data from individual items of accounts in value terms, we will make comparisons of SNA indicators characterizing individual components of economic potential. This approach allows you to objectively determine the weights of the constituent elements. This is an important condition for the formation of the structure of economic potential.

As an example, we will use the statistics of sectoral accounts of Ukraine for 2010. Table 1 presents the types of potentials, associated indicators of the SNA and statistics, volumes expressed in cost indicators and weights calculated as a percentage of economic output.

Analysis of the presented table allows us to draw a conclusion about the structure of economic potential, in which the main share is made up of production potential (73.8%), working capital potential (60%), added value potential (35.1%), marketing potential (11.8% ), labor potential (22.6%). The income potential (12.4%) is combined and reflects the processes of consumption and savings, which ensures a closed reproduction cycle.

Table 1. Determination of the structure of economic potential.

№	Potential name	SNA and statistics indicator	Volume, million UAH.	Weight, %
1.	Economic potential	Economics Issue	2388289,0	100,0
2.	Production potential	Production release (NFK)	1761515,0	73,8
3.	Potential of revolving funds	Intermediate consumption (IFC)	1434130,0	60,0
4.	Investment potential	Consumption of fixed capital	115338,0	4,8
5.	Added Value Potential	Added value	838821,0	35,1
6.	Innovation potential	Innovation	8045,5	0,3
7.	Marketing potential	Retail turnover	280890,0	11,8
8.	Labor potential	Wage	540651,0	22,6
9.	Divergence	Losses in the economic system	2929,0	0,1
10.	Income Potential	Net income, mixed income	295241,0	12,4

The resulting weights of the potential components make it possible to make objective assessments of the economic system and its potential capabilities. Taking into account the inertia and slowness of economic processes, the resulting weights can be accepted as stationary.

Structure of production potential

Production potential is a comprehensive indicator of productive activity in an economic system, including quantitative and qualitative characteristics. According to the existing tradition, production potential was determined exclusively by quantitative characteristics - production resources. Resources include: non-current assets, working capital, investments expressed in cost terms. Thus, we had to operate with the simple cost of resources, which during the production process is transferred to the finished product. Under certain conditions, this was considered as production potential.

However, in the modern economy, quantitative assessments of production potential are clearly insufficient. The cost of resources taken separately does not give an idea of ​​the quality characteristics of production. This required the introduction of additional relative measures of production potential, which should more accurately determine (strengthen or reduce) the effectiveness of quantitative characteristics.

The structure of production potential is presented in Fig. 3.

Rice. 3. Structure of production potential

Quantitative characteristics of production potential in value terms are defined as non-current assets, working capital and investments.

Non-current assets have the following structure: fixed assets, intangible assets, other non-current assets.

Working capital includes: working capital in inventories, working capital in production, finished goods, cash.

Investments are an independent block of the structure; their classification is not considered in this work.

Production potential includes, in addition to the listed quantitative characteristics, additional qualitative characteristics (indices), including: non-current assets index, working capital index, investment index, jobs index, value added index, industry development index, innovation index and market conditions index market. The listed indices reflect the “quality margin” of production potential.

As a result, we obtain two types of assessments of production potential - quantitative and qualitative, which complement each other. Consequently, the generalized (integral) production potential can be presented as the product of its quantitative characteristics and the index that determines the quality of production:

PPi = PPs x 1k, (1)

PPi – integral production potential;

PPP – production potential in value terms;

Iк – index of quality of production potential.

Production potential in value terms is determined by the trend value of its function. As a trend, we take the arithmetic average of production potential in value terms for the period under study:

where: PPP – production potential in value terms; PPсn – production potential in the nth year; T – number of years of study.

The quality index of production potential is defined as the weighted average of the component indices of quality characteristics:

where: Ik – integral index of the quality of production potential; Iкi – private quality index of production potential; В – weight of the private index in the structure of the integral index; i – number of the private quality index of production potential; m – number of private indices.

The partial quality index of production potential is defined as the ratio of the i-th quality parameter to the corresponding quality potential:

where: Iкi – private quality index of production potential; Ki – indicator of the i-th quality parameter; Ркi – potential of the i-th quality parameter.

The potential of a private quality index (standard) is defined as the arithmetic mean value (trend) of the quality parameter over T years (horizontal averaging):

where: Iкi – private quality index of production potential; Iкi n – private quality index of production potential in the nth year; T – number of years of the study period.

The considered structure of production potential allows us to comprehensively take into account its components and perform relevant assessments of production at the level of the economic system. This structure does not contradict the structure of economic potential, it is its integral part and addition, and therefore is completely compatible with it.

A feature of the proposed structure for calculating production potential is the joint use of natural, cost indicators and quality indices of production potential, and for the comparability of results, a transition is made to relative displays of the parameters of the economic system.

Methodology for assessing the production potential of a region

It is advisable to assess the production potential of a region in the following sequence:

1. Formation of a system of evaluation indexes.

Based on the analysis, the necessary data were obtained for calculating indices for assessing the production potential of the region.

The existing opinion about potential as the maximum possible value of the parameter being studied is postulated in almost all potential studies. But for market conditions, this approach is unacceptable: in the economy, potential can always be transformed into losses, and maintaining its maximum value, as a rule, reduces the efficiency of the economic system. For example, changes in market conditions with insufficient sectoral development can significantly reduce the production potential of a region, calculated on the basis of available production resources.

The basis of the methodological approach to assessing potential is to represent it as a trend of a potential function in a given time interval. The arithmetic mean value of the parameter indicator for the previous period is taken as a trend in the assessment methodology. This most relevantly reflects the capabilities of the economic system (calculated using formula (5)).

2. Calculation of the region's production potential in value terms.

Calculations of production potential were carried out on the basis of statistical data using formulas (1) – (2). The calculation results are given in Table 2.

Table 2. Production potential of the Lugansk region in comparable prices in 2010, thousand UAH.

Year	Fixed assets	Working capital	Investments	Production Potential, pps
2006	56947195,2	37819594,4	9675553,8	104442343,4
2007	53507675,8	39879357,4	14615692,0	108002724,1
2008	53153121,8	47167924,1	11026400,0	111347445,0
2009	53662734,8	48484976,9	4775865,8	106923575,6
2010	45118862,7	42695958,2	4705423,1	92520243,0
Average	52477918,1	43209562,2	8959786,9	104647266,2

A diagram showing the dynamics of production potential and its components in value terms is shown in Fig. 4.

Fig.4. Production potential in value terms

As a result of the calculations, the production potential of the Lugansk region was determined in value terms in the period from 2006 to 2010:

Pps = 104647266.2 thousand UAH.

3. Dynamics of regional production potential indices

In accordance with statistical data, we calculate indices of the production potential of the Lugansk region in the period from 2006 to 2010. The calculation results are given in table. 3. For the calculations, statistical data were used, which were reduced to comparative prices through the corresponding inflation coefficients. The quality index of production potential was determined as the arithmetic mean of the component indices according to formulas (3) – (5).

Table 3. Dynamics of potential indices of the Lugansk region

Year	Iva	iOS	In	Irm	IDs	Ig	In	Ікр	Ik
2006	1,06	1,15	0,94	0,98	1,02	0,99	0,93	1,09	1,02
2007	1,09	0,88	0,94	0,96	1,03	1,22	1,21	0,99	1,04
2008	1,02	0,92	0,94	0,96	0,97	1,09	1,31	0,87	1,01
2009	1,01	1,09	0,94	0,90	1,01	0,92	0,92	0,75	0,94
2010	1,02	1,12	0,94	0,89	1,01	0,93	0,94	0,81	0,96
Avg.	1,04	1,03	0,94	0,94	1,01	1,03	1,06	0,90	0,99

4. Analysis of the obtained results of calculations of indices of the region's production potential (using the example of the Lugansk region).

Non-current assets index in the period 2006-2010. had a general downward trend. This is explained by the aging of fixed assets and the impossibility of updating the production base in a crisis. According to conflicting statistics and expert estimates, today the level of production in the region is 60-80% of the 1990 level.

Revolving Funds Index in the period 2006-2010. had a failure in 2008-2009. This is explained by the influence of global crises - financial and economic.

Investment Index in this period was stable, which indicates the preservation of the existing investment potential of the Lugansk region.

Jobs index in the period 2006-2010. tended to a constant decline, which is explained by a decrease in the level of employment of the population and the aggravation of socio-economic processes.

Value added index had a failure in 2008, but then stabilized. Products of the manufacturing industries of the Lugansk region with high added value turned out to be unclaimed on the market.

Industry Development Index in the period under review, it had a local maximum in 2007, after which it began to decline. This indicates an imbalance in the production structure towards the extractive sectors of the economy.

Innovation Index had a local maximum in 2008. This is explained by the modernization of the Alchevsk Iron and Steel Works, which required significant innovative resources (continuous steel casting machines were put into operation). This improved the overall performance of metallurgical production and ensured the absorption of additional investments.

Market Condition Index had a downward trend. This indicates a drop in economic activity in the Luhansk region, which can be explained by the crisis in the global economy.

Production Potential Quality Index is the resultant for all listed indexes. It has a general downward trend. Index values ​​less than 1.0 indicate stagnation of the regional economy, which requires urgent government regulation measures.

5. Comparative analysis of profiles of production potential of regions of Ukraine.

To compare the qualitative characteristics of production potential using the accepted methodology, indices were calculated for other regions. During the analysis, the component indices and the overall quality index were calculated for Ukraine as a whole, the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, the Donetsk region, the Dnepropetrovsk region, the Lugansk region, the Odessa region, the Kharkov region and the city of Kyiv. These subjects were accepted as an analytical base due to the significant development of their production sector. Index calculations were made for 2010. The calculation results are given in table. 4.

We get a general idea of ​​the comparative analysis by comparing the values ​​of Ik for the regions and Ukraine as a whole. As can be seen from table. 4, the quality index of the production potential of the Lugansk region is inferior to the average for Ukraine, Crimea, Donetsk region and Kyiv. At the same time, the quality index of the production potential of the Lugansk region exceeds the corresponding indices of the Odessa region and Dnepropetrovsk region. and Kharkov region.

Region	Iva	Ioz	In	Irm	IDs	Ig	In	Ікр	Ik
Ukraine	1,03	1,08	0,89	0,92	1,01	0,98	0,98	0,91	0,97
Autonomous Republic of Crimea	1,01	1,06	1,02	0,96	1,00	1,34	1,00	0,96	1,04
Donetsk region	1,04	1,08	0,94	0,89	1,08	1,04	0,94	1,09	1,01
Dnepropetrovsk region	0,94	0,88	0,98	0,92	1,03	0,90	0,94	0,79	0,92
Lugansk region	1,02	1,12	0,94	0,89	1,01	0,93	0,94	0,81	0,96
Odessa region	0,95	0,74	0,96	0,96	1,00	1,01	0,96	0,88	0,93
Kharkov region	0,78	0,76	0,95	0,92	0,98	0,95	0,97	0,86	0,90
Kyiv	1,09	1,09	0,97	1,24	0,96	0,91	0,98	0,85	1,01

6. Calculation of the generalized production potential of the region

The generalized production potential of the region using the example of the Lugansk region can be calculated using formula (1).

For 2010 it will be equal to:

PPi2010 = 92520243.0 x 0.96 = 88819433.3 thousand UAH. (conditional)

For the period 2006-2010. it will be:

PPi = 104647266.2 x 0.99 = 103600793.6 thousand UAH. (conditional)

Generalized indicators are conditional values, as they are calculated by multiplying the real cost by the dimensionless quality index of production potential.

As a result of the analysis, data was obtained on the production potential of the Lugansk region, which allows a relevant assessment of the state of the economic system of the region.

7. Assessment of the region's production potential as part of its economic potential. Calculation of economic potential.

As shown above (see Table 1), the weight of the production potential of the Lugansk region in the economic potential is 73.8%. Then the economic potential of the Lugansk region can be determined as follows:

For 2010:

EPs2010 = 88819433.3/0.738 = 120351535.6 thousand UAH. (conditional)

For the period 2006-2010:

EPS = 103600793.6 / 0.738 = 140380479.1 thousand UAH. (conditional)

The research carried out and the calculations performed make it possible to determine the relevant values ​​of potentials in the economic system. As a result, the theoretical provisions on potential in economics were clarified, which ensure widespread practical use of this scientific category.

conclusions

The refined concept of potential as a generalized reserve of an economic system is considered. It is shown that the potential can be relevantly reflected by past states of the system.

The index method for assessing the economic indicators of the system is analyzed, its advantages for determining the qualitative characteristics of production potential are determined. Absolute and relative methods for assessing potential in the economy are proposed. The concept of production potential indices and their economic content have been clarified.

The reproduction cycle in the economic system and its phases are considered, the components of economic potential are combined with the phases of the reproduction cycle. Based on the analysis of existing theoretical principles, the structures of economic and production potentials have been developed. The SNA methodology was applied to determine the weights of the constituent elements of the structure of production potential. Based on a study of Ukrainian statistics, it is shown that the production potential of this country is 73.8% of its economic potential.

Analysis of modern ideas about production potential made it possible to develop its refined structure, which includes quantitative and qualitative characteristics. A calculation scheme is proposed, including calculations of the quantitative value of production potential in cost terms and the qualitative value in the form of indices. The generalized (integral) value of production potential is determined by the product of quantitative and qualitative values.

It is proposed to use the trend of potential functions of the economy of past periods as potential, which most accurately reflects the essence of potential as a generalized reserve. The concept of relative potential has been developed, which is determined by the ratio of the current value of the potential function to its trend. This makes it possible to compare the parameters of the economic system expressed in different units of measurement.

Indices for assessing production potential and formulas for their calculation are determined. Selections of statistical data for Ukraine and the Lugansk region were made to perform calculations and comparisons of production potential. The calculation of the production potential of the Lugansk region in value terms was carried out. Indices of production potential have been calculated, their dynamic characteristics have been studied, and a general index of the quality of production potential has been calculated.

A calculation of the generalized production potential of the region was made using the example of the Lugansk region. The structuring of production potential as part of economic potential has been completed.

Literature

1. Sosnenko L. Analysis of the economic potential of an operating enterprise. M. – Ed. Home Economic Literature. – 2003. 208 p.
2. Business models. – Electronic source. - Access mode. – http://elib.org.ua/economics/special/Book_Business_in_internet/Glava%201/Index3.html
3. Erygin Yu. V., Ulitskaya T. R. Potential: the content of the concept and its structure. – Electronic source. - Access mode. – http://science-bsea.narod.ru/2008/ekonom_2008/erygin_potencial.htm
4. Materials on regional economics / Assessment of the economic potential of the region. – Electronic source. - Access mode. – http://allendy.ru/regecon/56-ocenka.html
5. Deleuze J. The Nature of Flows (lecture November 12, 1971) / translation - Kralechkin D. 06/21/2006. – Electronic source. - Access mode. – http://www.politizdat.ru/outgoung/40
6. The system of national accounts as a theoretical model of national reproduction. Macroeconomic indicators. – Electronic source. - Access mode. – http://modern-econ.ru/makro/nac-econom/nac-schet.html
7. National reports/State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Elektronne dzherelo. – Access mode. – http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/
8. Links to state economic sites for statistics of regions of Ukraine. – Electronic source. - Access mode. –

The production potential of an economic system characterizes the potential capabilities of production occurring within its boundaries to ensure maximum output per unit of time. In the economic system of the region, industry, agriculture, construction and other important sectors of the sphere of material production are primarily distinguished. Each of them, in turn, is subdivided into a number of smaller industries. In this regard, it is legitimate to talk about the sectoral structure of the production potential of the economic system of the region (its economic complex), that is, to highlight the production potentials of industry, agriculture, construction, etc. within the production potential of a given complex.

The magnitude and level of use of the production potential of the economic system depend on many factors. Let us first consider the set of factors that determine the increase in the region’s production potential. They include all factors that contribute to increasing the production capacity of enterprises located in a particular region.

This provision is based on the fact that the production capacity of each individual enterprise is the basis for the formation of the value of its production potential, that is, it acts as its central link.

Factors for increasing the production capacity of enterprises in the region can be divided into two groups:

 affecting the expansion of the scope of work;

 leading to increased productivity of technological equipment and workplaces.

The expansion of the scope of work does not depend on all the means of labor available at the enterprise, but only on the amount of technological equipment and production space. With an increase in the number of equipment and jobs, conditions are created for expanding production in space. At the same time, equipment and workplaces must be selected so that their structure matches the structure of the products being manufactured, in other words, the maximum level of consistency must be achieved in their throughput.

A certain ratio must also exist between the production capacities of the sections and workshops of the enterprise. Production capacity does not reflect the total energy capacity of the enterprise and does not consist of the sum of the capacities of individual working machines. It depends on the level of compliance of the structure of equipment and jobs with the structure of machine intensity (labor intensity) of manufactured products. One of the important conditions for production carried out by a system of machines and based on the cooperation of “partial machines” is compliance with the norms and proportions between their number, size and operating speeds. Ignoring the principle of proportionality in constructing a system of machines narrows the scale of production in relation to the available number of machines and jobs, leading to a decrease in the efficiency of using the production apparatus of enterprises.

Factors increasing the productivity of machines (workplaces) are mainly associated with improving the quality of technological equipment. The more advanced the machines and equipment, the higher their productivity per unit of operating time, the greater the production capacity of the departments and the enterprise as a whole. The productivity of machinery and equipment also depends on the quality of the objects of labor. The higher the quality of materials and semi-finished products, the less time it takes to process them, the more products the enterprise can produce, the greater its production capacity.

Improvement of the technological process has a significant impact on increasing machine productivity. The introduction of advanced technology makes it possible to intensify the production process, that is, to reduce both machine and total time for manufacturing a product. Increasing the productivity of machines largely depends on the perfection of the designs of manufactured products. The simplicity of the design scheme of products and individual components, their high manufacturability in production are the most important prerequisites for reducing the machine intensity (labor intensity) of manufactured products.

The productivity of machines also depends on the qualifications of workers. Systematic improvement of their general and technical education, improvement of production skills and, on this basis, an increase in the level of qualifications create favorable social preconditions for increasing the productivity of labor. Staffing industrial enterprises with qualified personnel accelerates the development of modern technology, makes it possible to make maximum use of its potential capabilities, more widely introduce progressive technological processes and thus systematically increase the production capacity of enterprises.

Consequently, the factors for increasing the production capacity of an enterprise are associated with all the main elements of the production process. With the means of labor, this connection is manifested in quantitative and qualitative aspects, and with the objects of labor and labor itself - only in the qualitative aspect. The growth of the production capacity of the enterprise, which is due to the improvement of factors influencing the increase in the productivity of technological equipment and workplaces, is expressed in the value of the machine intensity (labor intensity) of manufactured products. Knowing the size and structure of machine intensity (labor intensity) of products, as well as its correspondence to the structure of the equipment fleet and jobs, it is possible to determine the possible increase in product output through the use of reserves for increasing the production capacity of individual divisions and the enterprise as a whole.

The system of factors influencing the value of the region’s production potential also includes factors that are associated with such elements of the production process as living labor and objects of labor, with the provision of regional enterprises with workers and material and energy resources in the amounts necessary for the full use of their production capacity. The mechanism of influence of these factors has specific features.

Among the factors that improve the production capabilities of living labor at enterprises in the region and thereby increase their production potential, we should first of all include the group that influences the productivity of machines (workplaces). These include:

 technical level of machinery and equipment, their modernization; improvement of existing and introduction of new progressive technological processes;

 constructive improvement of manufactured products;

 increasing the level of its unification and standardization;

 ensuring proper quality and standard sizes of consumed material resources;

 increasing the level of qualifications of workers and, on this basis, better mastery of the tools they use. All these factors, having a direct impact on reducing the machine intensity (labor intensity) of the production program, ensure an increase in the productivity of machinery and equipment (workplaces) and ultimately determine an increase in the production capacity of the enterprise. However, reducing the labor intensity of the production program at the same time leads to savings in human labor costs or the release of the number of workers in the main production, which is specifically expressed in the growth of the production potential of the enterprise. Consequently, the listed groups of factors influence the value of the region’s production potential through an increase in the capacity of enterprises and an increase in the production capabilities of living labor employed in the main production of these enterprises.

The value of the region's production potential is affected by the production capabilities of living labor employed in the region's auxiliary production. These possibilities themselves depend on factors that ensure a reduction in the labor intensity of products and work in auxiliary production, as well as work on servicing the production process in the main and auxiliary workshops of enterprises. These include:

 increasing the technical level of equipment used in auxiliary and servicing processes and the degree of mastery of it by workers;

 improving the qualifications of workers employed here;

 providing auxiliary and servicing processes with high quality materials of the required brands and sizes;

 improvement of the applied technology in a labor-saving direction;

 improving the organization of labor of workers involved in these processes and increasing the level of its mechanization. The availability and use of material resources, which directly affect the value of the enterprise’s production potential and, consequently, the value of the region’s production potential, in turn, depend on a number of factors. Among them, the main ones are the factors of design improvement of products of the main and auxiliary production, improvement of the technological processes operating in these industries in a material-saving direction, as well as factors ensuring

reducing the cost of material and fuel and energy resources for repair and maintenance needs.

Improving the use of production waste is one of the factors that improves the use of material resources and, on this basis, increases the production potential of the region.

At present, quite a lot of experience has already been accumulated in involving waste in production at the regional level.

The magnitude of the region's production potential depends on the provision of enterprises located on its territory with labor, as well as material, raw materials and fuel and energy resources. This means meeting the need for resources, calculated according to progressive, technically sound standards for the costs of living and material labor to implement the production programs of enterprises, ensuring the full use of their production capacities.

Among the factors influencing the level of use of the region's production potential, the central place is occupied by those that determine the level of use of the production capacities of its enterprises. Factors that contribute to improving the use of production capacity find their quantitative expression in the ratio of work time and time lost when using the potential of the enterprise in the planning period to produce products, in other words, they cover the area of ​​organizing the functioning of the means of labor over time.

More complete utilization of production capacity is facilitated by reducing the time of unproductive operation of equipment.

Time losses are divided into regulated and unregulated. Regulated time losses (preparatory and final work, equipment repairs, lunch breaks, non-working shifts, non-working days and weekends) are provided for by current regulations. Unregulated wastage of time

include whole-shift and intra-shift equipment downtime.

Whole-day downtime, as a rule, is caused by the action of socio-economic factors (lack of machine operators of various professions, reduced operating hours of the enterprise, deficiencies in organizing the remuneration of machine operators and stimulating the use of production capacity, a decrease in the market for products or their national economic needs, etc.).

Intra-shift downtime is mainly associated with the effect of organizational and technical factors (incompleteness of cooperative supplies, insufficiently high level of material and technical supply of workplaces and concentration of production of homogeneous products without taking into account the technological capabilities of the equipment, shortcomings in the organization of production, labor and management).

Factors influencing the level of use of that part of the region’s production potential that depends on the production capabilities of living labor and material and energy resources (at individual enterprises) in comparison with the production capabilities of the means of labor determined by production capacity can be divided into two groups: regional in nature and internal.

In the first group of factors (regional), the main ones are:

 complete or partial transfer to other enterprises of the region of a certain excess of labor and material resources generated at individual enterprises (for reasons of logistics or for internal reasons depending on themselves) over the need for them for the successful implementation of the planned production program, maximizing available available resources production capacity;

 rational use by recipient enterprises of received resources to increase their production potential, preventing losses of these resources;

 development of cooperation in the use of incomplete reserves of production capacity between enterprises in the region in order to use the surplus of material and labor resources noted by us to increase regional production potential.

Internal factors (acting within enterprises) are:

 complete (without losses) and rational use of surplus resources to increase the production potential of the enterprise;

 mobilization for this purpose of incomplete reserves of production capacities of individual divisions of the enterprise;

 implementation, if necessary, of some increase in the throughput of individual parts of the enterprise (sections, groups of equipment) to maximize the use of existing opportunities to increase its production potential.

The listed factors influence the level of use of the region's production potential. Most of them cover activities related to the use of reserves of an organizational nature and do not require significant capital investments in main production. In this classification, the factors are presented in a generalized form. However, this does not exclude the possibility

their differentiation, which equally applies to factors influencing both the magnitude and the degree of use of production potential.

The classification of factors that determine the increase in production potential and improvement of its use is of great importance for managing the process of increasing and using production potential in the region, as well as individual enterprises (associations). The use of such classifications in management practice will allow us to achieve organic unity in the field of planning the development and use of production potential, and rationally distribute material and financial resources for this purpose.

The industrial basis of the industry consists of oil refining, electric power, production of building materials, food products, mechanical engineering and metalworking. Despite the insignificant share of the volume of shipped goods of own production, work and services performed on one's own by the types of economic activity "Mining", "Manufacturing" and "Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water" of the region in the total volume of shipments of the Central Federal District and the Russian Federation , which is 2.1% and 0.6% respectively, the region has industrial enterprises that are significant not only for the economy of the region, but also for Russia as a whole.

The largest of them are: - Ryazan Oil Refinery Company (RNPC) - the largest refining enterprise, part of OJSC NK Rosneft, with a processing capacity of 17 million tons of oil per year. Ryazan Oil Refinery Company produces high-quality gasoline, lubricating oils, diesel fuel, aviation kerosene, boiler fuel (mazut) and bitumen; - a branch of JSC OGK-2 - Ryazan State District Power Plant in the city of Novomichurinsk, Ryazan region - the largest thermal power plant in Europe and one of the five largest in Russia.

The installed electrical capacity of the state district power station is 3070 MW; - CJSC "Russian Leather" is a leather production and processing enterprise that produces about 35% of leather in Russia. At the same time, 48% of products are exported. The company supplies products to more than 100 leading companies in Russia, Europe, Asian countries, etc.

In terms of per capita industrial production, the Ryazan region in 2013 occupied an average position among the regions of the Central Federal District - 10th place. A powerful research and production base has been created in the region based on enterprises of the military-industrial complex, the capabilities of which make it possible to develop and master new high-tech science-intensive products: radar equipment, gas lasers, gas-discharge switching devices, solar power plants, plasma monitors for special and industrial purposes, automated systems control and management of technological processes, information and analytical systems, systems for maintenance and control of special equipment.

Unused production capacities and reserves of basic minerals available in the Ryazan region are of potential interest to investors. The main problems in the development of industry are: - lack of personnel, including highly qualified ones; - low rates of technical re-equipment; - poor implementation of innovative developments; - insufficiency of available financing, limiting investment activity; - insufficient pace of formation of modern investment infrastructure; - concentration of production in large cities

Agricultural production in 2013 reached 38.7 billion rubles. Despite unfavorable weather conditions for agribusiness since 2010, the agricultural production index has increased by 19.8% since 2005. The agro-industrial complex of the Ryazan region includes 328 agricultural organizations, 2,538 peasant (farm) enterprises, more than 200 food and processing industry enterprises.

There are 289.5 thousand private subsidiary farms of citizens in the region. The total land fund of agricultural enterprises, organizations and citizens engaged in agricultural production is 2556.2 thousand hectares, including farmland occupying 2328.5 thousand hectares, arable land - 1470.6 thousand hectares, fodder land - 813.5 thousand. ha. The production of grain, milk, meat, eggs is carried out mainly by agricultural organizations and peasant farms, potatoes and vegetables - by personal subsidiary plots of citizens.

Grain production is of great importance for the economy of the Ryazan region. Occupying on average over 5 years more than half of the sown areas, it produces 26.5% of all marketable products and 68.7% of crop production, accumulates almost 30% of total costs, and serves as the main source of profit in crop production and agriculture in general. In the livestock sector, from 2005 to 2013, there was a decrease in the number of cattle by 33.3%, while in the last three years the average annual rate of decline slowed from 7.4% to 1.5%. Over the same period, the number of pigs increased 2.2 times, and the number of sheep and goats increased 1.5 times. The Ryazan region is traditionally a large producer of milk, but during the period from 2005 to 2013 its production decreased from 383.6 thousand tons to 355.9 thousand tons. At the same time, dairy cattle breeding in the region makes it possible to fully meet the population's needs for dairy products.

Having its own processing facility, the Ryazan region is a stable supplier of raw materials for large dairy companies in other regions.

The most pressing problems of the agro-industrial complex today are: - insufficient level of profitability of agricultural producers to invest in the development of production and the transition to innovative development; - imperfect market infrastructure: the growing role of retail networks and poor development of cooperation; - financial instability; - insufficient inflow of investment; - impact of natural and climatic factors; - poor development of insurance; - insufficient resource and information support at all levels of agricultural production; - personnel shortage.