Currency quotes are of interest not only to financial analysts; ordinary Russians are no less interested in the forecast for the exchange rate of the dollar, euro and ruble. It is difficult for an inexperienced citizen without special education and knowledge to understand how justified this or that forecast published in the press is. Often even knowledgeable analysts interpret the same event in their own way.

The portal has examined the most significant information and, based on it, provides a forecast of the dollar exchange rate for the near future and until the end of 2019.

What will happen to the dollar: expert opinion

Analysts on the Russian foreign exchange market have noticed a new trend - a decrease in the dependence of the ruble exchange rate on the cost of a barrel. Especially in the short term. At a particular point in time, the national currency shows greater stability than oil. And in other periods it declines much faster than the price of “black gold” changes. This is due to the so-called “budget rule”: when revenues received from the oil sector exceed those budgeted, they are converted into foreign currency and sent to the reserve fund.

This strategy reduces the volatility of the Russian ruble, that is, it reduces the limits of currency volatility or the range of its prices over a certain period of time. The more the oil price rises relative to the previous month, the more interventions are directed to the reserve fund. As the indicator decreases, the infusions decrease.

But the Russian currency still cannot completely break away from the oil and gas industry. The increase in the dollar exchange rate over the three months of summer from 63 to 67 rubles per unit was due, among other things, to the price of a barrel - from 68 to 57 $. The September strengthening of the ruble is also associated with the price of oil. Brent rose by $5.5 over the summer, from 57.5 to 63.

Therefore, if we ignore short-term changes in the ruble exchange rate, we should evaluate the general prospects for a fall or rise in prices on the oil and gas market in the next 3-4 months.

Barrel: optimistic scenario

Oil production and trade is a global process, involving all developed and developing countries of the world. It is influenced by many political and economic factors. According to the main economic law, the price on the market is set based on the balance between supply and demand. But for this product, much more indicators are involved in pricing. In particular, the OPEC+ deal significantly controls the supply of crude oil. In the near future, the established limit of 1.2 million barrels per day will not be revised. Therefore, oil prices will not change dramatically until the end of this year.

In September, the world community received real proof of the market’s dependence on oil production in the Middle East. Terrorist attacks on rigs in Saudi Arabia led to a drop in pumping by 6 million barrels per day, and this is a significant indicator for the global balance. Although the country is striving to neutralize the consequences of the attacks and is carrying out repairs urgently. In the coming days, SA will restore production and will likely increase it to catch up.

The supply is also influenced by the production of “black gold” in the United States of America. Since the beginning of autumn 2019, the indicators have been at historical maximum levels of 12.4 million barrels. per day. But the media persistently announces information about a decrease in drilling activity in the United States. As a result, if the United States reduces production, the demand for imported petroleum raw materials will increase. At the same time, the US Department of Energy forecasts the price per barrel at $65.15 by the end of this year.

This state of affairs in America allows us to make an optimistic forecast about the exchange rate of the Russian currency to the dollar in the range of 64-65 rubles. But it’s not just oil that dictates prices, so it’s important to take other factors into account.

Declining oil demand

The second factor that determines the market price is demand. In this area, the main driving force is trade wars between countries. When there is a surge in the economic and political life of world powers and an escalation of conflicts, a redistribution of roles occurs between participants and dependent states.

Analysts and experts rightly draw a parallel between the growing trade conflict between the United States and China and the decreasing demand for oil. The PMI fell below 50 points in China and the Eurozone. And then this figure fell in the United States. A fall below 50 units results in:

• reduction in purchases;
• reduction in the output of goods;
• decrease in exports;
• decline in employment in the manufacturing sector.

The most serious macroeconomic factor that had a negative impact on the European Union was that the German economy contracted by 0.1% compared to the previous quarter. If such a low indicator remains in one of the leading EU countries, not only will the euro exchange rate fall, but it will pass the psychological threshold in the Russian Federation of 70 rubles. This has already been observed several times during September trading on the Moscow Exchange.

In the medium term, analysts predict that the euro will not only have a parity rate with the American currency, but also its decline compared to the dollar. The internal politics of the United States can prevent this if significant exporters enter into confrontation. It is unprofitable for them to strengthen their own currency so harshly.

Realistic scenario

The decline in business activity in trade and production led to negative consequences in a number of industries:

1. International air travel fell 3.2% year over year at midsummer.
2. New car purchases in China decreased by 5% during the same period.
3. Passenger vehicle sales in India, Asia's second-largest market, fell by 30%.

Analyzing demand is many times more difficult than supply. Therefore, the accuracy of the calculations is always approximate. But at the end of the summer of 2019, the International Energy Agency lowered its oil demand forecast for 2019 and 2020. This is not the first decrease in the indicator. Therefore, a second revision of the data is possible before the end of this year or at the beginning of 2020.

Taking into account demand analytics, we can assume the exchange rate of the Russian currency to the dollar at the end of autumn or closer to December at 67 rubles.

Currency returns

All currency pairs are affected by real interest rates. They are calculated based on the return the investor receives. It depends on investing in financial instruments - shares, bonds, which are issued in different currencies. Real profitability is also determined by the nominal rate, which is regulated by the main bank of the country.

Russia has maintained high real rates in relation to the inflation rate in recent years. Even after repeated reductions, the real rate on 10-year federal loan bonds (OFZ) remains at 3%. This situation encourages investors to purchase Russian rubles to purchase reliable financial instruments, and to invest, in particular, in OFZs. At the same time, in the United States the real rate is at a negative level of -0.2%.

From September 12, 2019, the EU Central Bank kept the base rate at zero, and reduced the rate on deposits from -0.4 to -0.5%. German bonds yield losses of -0.6%, Italian bonds yield +0.8%, Italian bonds yield +0.15%. At the same time, the EU Central Bank warned about the implementation of an asset purchase program from November 1, 2019. The planned volume is 20 billion euros per month. Such actions against the backdrop of a soft monetary policy inevitably provoke a weakening of the position of the national currency, in this case the euro.

Taking into account all the calculations and after subtracting inflation, the return on currencies can be expressed in the table:

The more real rates in the EU and the US decline, the more favorable the situation will be for strengthening the position of the Russian ruble.

Macroeconomic factors

The introduction of the “fiscal rule” in the Russian Federation led to a stable surplus. For global trends, such a situation is currently very rare. The increase in reserves also strengthened the country's gold and foreign exchange reserves, exceeding the $500 billion mark. This position is second in its class of countries after China. Government debts have been reduced to zero. Russia's focus on exports has led to a positive current account position.

A stable macroeconomic position should keep the national currency of the Russian Federation from significant jumps. Even with short-term fluctuations in the price or demand for oil, geopolitical changes or the introduction of new sanctions, the ruble will not succumb to excessive volatility.

Therefore, foreign exchange market experts do not predict sharp jumps in the dollar exchange rate at the end of 2019. It is unlikely, under all other conditions, that its level would exceed the figure of 69 rubles. Analysts are inclined to believe that the dollar will cost between 65 and 67 rubles per unit in December. The forecast for the euro exchange rate at the end of the year is in the same range, with a small upper adjustment from 65 to 72 rubles.

Being the most popular and most liquid currency pair, it attracts the attention of financial specialists around the world who develop their trading plans on this instrument. A novice investor will always be able to find a lot of fairly high-quality analytics, and an experienced player will receive a stable and liquid instrument for increasing capital.

Euro-Dollar forecast (online) for today

The euro to dollar forecast has different timeframes and meanings. It is best to pay attention to the strongest forecast - Active buy or Actively sell. In addition, it is worth saying that a strong signal will be the repetition of one signal on all timeframes.

Forecast Euro - Dollar compiled based on a variety of technical analysis and does not include fundamental indicators.

Euro to Dollar (EUR USD) exchange rate for today and for all time

Visually examining the chart of the euro/dollar exchange rate, you can see that the quote trades price levels well, as if giving the opportunity to exit a losing position with minimal losses even to the most leisurely trader. In general, the EUR/USD chart is a reference in terms of technology for all other banknotes of developed countries.

general characteristics

The currency pair is an extremely popular instrument.

More than a third of the total trading volume on the foreign exchange market comes from the Euro-Dollar quote.

This is explained by the scale of the economies of national currencies.

The base currency is the euro, the dollar is the quote currency. That is, the euro/dollar exchange rate tells you how many dollars you need to pay for one euro.

• If positive news comes out in America and you predict a rise in the dollar, then you need a quote sell.
• If you predict the growth of the European currency against the dollar, then you need a quote buy(in this case, the exchange rate increases, since more and more dollars will need to be paid for 1 euro)

In the Forex market with quotes, they work in standard lots of $100,000. Brokers provide the opportunity to trade fractional lots and work with extremely small volumes, down to 1 euro. Euro-Dollar futures are traded in lots of 1,000 euros with a guarantee amount of only 3,500 rubles.

Factors influencing EUR USD and what the exchange rate depends on

The main influencing factors that can change EUR USD quotes are centered around the monetary policy of the United States. There are several levers that help the Fed regulate and otherwise change the flow of funds:

• Open market interventions;
• Increase or decrease in the discount rate;
• Managing the level of reserve requirements.

The Fed Board can directly change reserve requirements and the discount rate. A special committee works with open market operations. By making changes in one of three factors, the Fed affects the volume of funds and ultimately changes the physical relationship between the US dollar and other currencies, including the euro. Thus, the Fed’s decisions are priority factors in the long-term existence of the EURUSD currency pair.

The primary factor influencing EUR/USD is the Federal Reserve's government funds rate. This is the indicator by which credit institutions (banks) pay interest on a daily loan. The US financial regulator changes the interest rate when the national currency needs to be strengthened or weakened. Traditionally, such actions have a significant impact on both the currency and stock markets.

European Central Bank or for short « ECB" regulates the monetary policy of the European Union countries. The main decisions on the European currency rate are made by the board, which is formed from representatives of national banks of EU member countries.

The primary goal of the ECB is financial stability and complete overcoming of the consequences of the global financial crisis of 2008.

Like most reserve currencies, the euro/dollar reacts accordingly to political instability. As an example, we can cite changes in the composition of parliaments and cabinets in countries such as Great Britain, France or Germany.

Serious financial problems of all members of the European Union could negatively affect the euro exchange rate. This can be seen in the dynamics of euro prices during the economic crisis in Greece and Spain. The release of macroeconomic statistics is also a very important factor influencing the strengthening or weakening of the European currency.

News of primary importance comes from Germany. This is due to the fact that Germany is the largest economy in the European Union, leaving the UK and France in second and third place. The most important information is the state of the gross national product (GNP), indicators of theoretical and real inflation, growth ratesor falls in industrial production and unemployment claims rates. In Germany, the lion's share of statistics falls into the majority of published financial market indicators. It is important to take into account the budget deficit and the effectiveness of current measures aimed against a recession in the economy.

How to trade Euro-Dollar profitably

There is a strong inverse correlation between EUR/USD and , showing the approximate relationship between the euro and the franc. This is due to the fact that the financial condition of Switzerland itself is very dependent on the economic and political events of the European Union. Most often, a decline in the euro and dollar is followed by an immediate collapse in EUR/CHF. In rare exceptions, the situation repeats itself, but exactly the opposite. There is also a significant correlation with the pair due to the correlation between the pound and the euro.

In order to make money on the euro-dollar, a trader will need some skill. Quick trades in 15 or even five minutes allow you to make significant profits. A high degree of trading and excellent liquidity makes the euro/dollar the most popular instrument on the international foreign exchange market.

Frequent fluctuations of this quote allow you to implement the most daring and risky trading strategies. , or combined indicators (such as) will be able to provide fairly accurate entry points. Exit from positions can traditionally be based on breaking through the price channel. When working with charts of 1 day or more, exiting a position and reversing can also be done based on the intersection of moving averages.

Example

For trading we chose a broker and a derivative financial instrument - . Only here can you get the maximum profit with the simplest analysis of the euro-dollar exchange rate.

The thing is that to make money on options, you only need to determine the future direction of the quote. Options have a fixed profit that does not depend on the level of price changes.

First, let's select an asset:

Let us indicate the expiration time of the option:

We did a little analysis, compared the forecast for the euro dollar and came to the conclusion that the quote EUR/USD will continue to fall in the near future. In the option conditions, we entered the amount and clicked the button DOWN — fall forecast:

Features of the EURUSD currency pair

The Euro-Dollar has a so-called cross rate effect. The euro/dollar exchange rate is often influenced by changes in the prices of currency pairs in which the dollar is not present ( for example EUR/CAD or EUR/AUD). The rate may decline due to the release of positive statistical data and news from Japan, which will be transmitted through the movement of the EUR/JPY pair.

The greatest trading activity occurs during two trading sessions in a row - American and European, but often the peak of trading occurs during the intersection of trading sessions from 16:00 to 18:00 Moscow time.

The main feature is the ease of forecasting a currency pair due to the huge flow of information, at the same time, thanks to it, it is often difficult for a trader to determine the direction due to the dominance of news. However, the Euro-Dollar currency pair is an indicator for many strategies due to its volatility and liquidity.

If you find an error, please highlight a piece of text and click Ctrl+Enter.

Successfully forecasting the dynamics of the Russian currency exchange rate is the key to profitability of several types of investments. In this section you will find data on changes in the exchange rate of the US dollar (USD) and euro (EUR) to the Russian ruble (RUB) over the past 30 days, which will help you decide on the choice of strategy. You can also find the latest Forex market news and financial analysts' forecasts for world currencies. The section also presents the Top 5 independent user ratings of forex brokers licensed by the Central Bank or foreign regulators. According to the requirement of the new law on the forex market, which came into force in October 2015, the presence of a Russian forex dealer license is mandatory for companies providing currency trading services to individuals. To date, the Bank of Russia has issued only a few licenses to operate a forex dealer. Some major market participants are in the process of completing paperwork, while the majority continue to operate through their foreign structures.

Change in the exchange rate of the US Dollar (USD) to the Russian Ruble (RUB) by

In the information block “Rate Changes” you will find the official exchange rate of the US dollar to the Russian ruble, established by the Bank of Russia. You can not only find out the exchange rate for today, but also see all the dollar to ruble exchange rates for the last 30 days. Monitoring the dynamics of changes in the dollar exchange rate, presented for convenience in the diagram, will allow you to promptly notice a trend towards a decrease or, conversely, an increase in the value of the dollar against the ruble. Forecasting exchange rates is a difficult task, which is why currency risk insurance is widespread among both investors and companies. At the same time, most market participants understand the importance of predicting the dynamics of exchange rates, for example, for the real estate market, and strive to understand the mechanisms of their formation. The basic methods for forecasting exchange rates are the theory of purchasing power parity, the principle of relative economic stability, the construction of an econometric model and time series analysis. You can read about these and other methods of forecasting exchange rates in the section “Analytics and Forecasts”.

Data on USD/RUB exchange rates from the Central Bank for the last 30 days are provided.

Change in the exchange rate of EURO (EUR) to Russian ruble (RUB) by

This block provides information on the euro to ruble exchange rate established by the Bank of Russia. The graph shows the dynamics of the exchange rate over the last month, so you will see that the highest official euro exchange rate set by the Central Bank in September was September 3—73.7199, the lowest was September 24—71.5854. The presence of representative chronological data makes it possible to trace the trend of the euro exchange rate and helps to make a forecast for the near future. In the Financial Forecasts - Cash section you will find financial analytics and expert forecasts to help you shape your EUR/RUB strategy.

Data on EUR/RUB exchange rates from the Central Bank for the last 30 days are provided

The dollar exchange rate in Moscow banks is necessary every day for every resident of the capital, region and numerous guests of the city.

Therefore, the dollar exchange rate in Moscow is displayed on the page “Dollar exchange rate in Moscow banks for today.”

Why is it convenient to find out the dollar exchange rate in Moscow from the page of our portal?

On our service, information is provided according to the following principles:

• Information on each position for buying and selling US currency changes in real time, meaning you can use the most current information;
• We report data from all the largest, and the banks in our table are sorted in descending order of profitability of exchange rates, but you can also apply your own sorting;
• We have placed a block at the top of the page with the best dollar and euro rates in Moscow;
• You can go to pages with exchange rates for this currency in other major cities of Russia.

Why do you need to receive information on this service?

We hope that thanks to our service you will be able to:

• Determine the optimal one;
• By tracking the dynamics of fluctuations, you will be able to make a forecast of changes in exchange rates using the archive (the interactive window “Specify date”);
• You can quickly find a suitable branch of the desired bank.

To calculate the exchange of the planned amount, you can refer to our currency converter.

The exchange rate is falling due to currency purchases, capital outflow and cheaper oil.

The Russian currency is in a state of permanent weakening. Since the beginning of spring, the dollar has risen in price by more than 15% - from 55 to almost 64 rubles. Now there are even more reasons for the further collapse of the “wooden” one. The “war of tariffs” unleashed by the United States against the whole world, capital outflow and unstable oil prices could lead to the fact that by the fall the value of the American banknote will exceed the 70 ruble level.

The reasons why the ruble exchange rate has been steadily falling for the past four months are both external and internal. Recently, the main lever of pressure on the exchange rate is the so-called “war of tariffs” - an exchange of economic restrictions that is currently taking place between the United States and China, as well as the United States and the countries of the European Union.

At the end of May, President Donald Trump announced the introduction of customs duties of 25% on goods imported into the States from the Middle Kingdom. Subsequently, the increase in duties also affected aluminum imported to the United States, including from the EU countries and Russia.

Europe and China responded with their own defensive instruments. For example, from June 22, the European Union will begin levying tariffs of 25% on a range of American goods. China made a similar decision a week earlier. Russia has also joined them - according to the head of the Ministry of Economic Development, Maxim Oreshkin, our country will tighten its duty policy towards the United States due to losses from duties on steel and aluminum.

Against the backdrop of confrontation in the international space, the Russian currency progressively fell in value. If at the beginning of March, when Washington’s claims to Beijing took on real shape, about 55 rubles were asked for a dollar, now the quotes for the “American” are around 64 rubles. This happened due to a fall in stock prices of large domestic export companies, which indirectly affected the exchange rate of the Russian currency.

Our currency also feels additional negative pressure due to increased capital outflow - in December 2017, the Central Bank raised its estimate of this indicator for 2018 from $10 billion to $16 billion, and three months later raised it to $19 billion. By the way, capital flight was observed for the currencies of most developing countries, Chinese, Indian, Mexican and Turkish businessmen actively transferred their funds abroad.

Meanwhile, as First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov said, the dollar exchange rate could drop to 50 rubles, but such a development of the scenario is hampered by the budget rule, which limits federal budget expenditures. The fact is that the base price of oil included in the budget is about $41 per barrel. The Ministry of Finance directs oil and gas revenues above this level to purchase foreign currency, which subsequently goes to replenish the National Welfare Fund. In the first five months of the year, Siluanov’s department purchased currencies worth 1.3 trillion rubles. In June, similar operations promise to be record-breaking - the Ministry of Finance plans to spend almost 380 billion rubles for these purposes.

Oil prices, which have fallen in price from $80 to $74 per barrel over the past month, are also adding fuel to the fire. Considering that at the next OPEC+ summit, which will be held in Vienna on June 22-23, a decision may be made to increase the production of raw materials, the price of oil risks falling back to the area of ​​$60-65 per barrel, and the Russian currency, the key to a strong exchange rate of which is the hydrocarbon component , may fall to 70 rubles per dollar and higher.

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