Causes of the demographic explosion. The concept of population explosion The main reason for the population explosion is

Modern population explosion

Until the 17th century The world's population increased slowly. It was approximately 150 million in the 1st century. n. e. and reached 500 million by the 17th century. Then the growth rate increased sharply. Thus, the world population increased daily by 254 thousand people per year, less than 13 thousand of them were in industrialized countries, the remaining 241 were in developing countries. 60% - Asia, 20% - Africa, 10% - Latin America. Such striking differences are determined by the modern demographic explosion, which is much stronger in power than what took place in Europe. It began in the 1950s and continues to the present day, although it is rapidly declining.

Currently, the trend of a decline in the birth rate in accordance with the norm of the demographic transition has already affected all developing countries, which is due to socio-economic changes in the developing society as a whole and changes in the family, in the position of women, and her involvement in production. Overall mortality rates continue to decline, reflecting a very young population structure in most developing countries, which to some extent contributes to the continuation of the modern population explosion. On the other hand, in some countries in tropical and southern Africa, mortality has been rising in recent years due to the ongoing AIDS epidemic.

According to research by the German Population Foundation Deutsche Stiftung Weltbevölkerung(DSW), the global population is currently approximately 7 billion, with a population increase of 82 million in 2007

Features of the modern population explosion

in developing countries there is rapid population growth, significantly outpacing their socio-economic development, exacerbating the already complex problems of employment, social sphere, food supply, economy, etc.;
power is significantly less than in the last century;
a large-scale phenomenon.

The modern demographic explosion not only occurs in a large number of countries, directly affecting a significant part of the world population, but, in fact, directly or indirectly affects the entire world community, turning a local demographic problem into one of the global problems of our time.

The end of the population explosion

At the same time, it is necessary to take into account that the relative growth rate of the Earth's population reached its peak in the 60s. last century; and since the late 80s. The absolute growth rate of the world population also began to decline. Currently, population growth rates are declining in almost all countries of the world; and we can say that we live in the era of the end of the demographic explosion. At the same time, the threat of relative overpopulation levels reaching catastrophic levels still persists in relation to individual countries, where the rate of demographic growth still remains extremely high, and it is slowing down at an insufficient pace (primarily we are talking about the countries of Tropical Africa, such as Nigeria, DRC, Angola, etc.).

Literature

Vishnevsky A.G. World demographic explosion and its problems. M.: Knowledge, 1978.
Vishnevsky A.G. Selected demographic works. In two volumes. T. I. Demographic theory and demographic history. M.: Nauka, 2005. ISBN 5-02-033776-5
Kapitsa S.P. General theory of human growth: How many people have lived, are living and will live on Earth. M.: Nauka, 1999. ISBN 5-02-008299-6
Korotaev A.V., Malkov A.S., Khalturina D.A. Laws of history. Mathematical modeling of the development of the World System. Demography, economics, culture. 2nd ed. M.: URSS, 2007.
Dolnik V.R. Are there biological mechanisms for regulating human numbers? // Nature. - 1992. - № 6.

Notes

See what “population explosion” is in other dictionaries: POPULATION EXPLOSION - DEMOGRAPHIC EXPLOSION, a figurative designation for the rapid growth of the world population, which began in the 1950s. From journalistic literary term D. v. passed into modern scientific research, including works examining the concept of demographic... ...

See what “population explosion” is in other dictionaries: Demographic Encyclopedic Dictionary - “DEMOGRAPHIC EXPLOSION”, a sharp acceleration in population growth rates. In developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America in the 50s and 60s. 20th century caused by a decrease in mortality (see MORTALITY), especially among children, while maintaining a high birth rate... ...

See what “population explosion” is in other dictionaries: encyclopedic Dictionary

See what “population explosion” is in other dictionaries:- sharp acceleration of population growth rates. In developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America in the 50s and 60s. 20th century due to a decrease in mortality, especially among children, while maintaining a high birth rate. The population explosion has exacerbated the problems... ... Big Encyclopedic Dictionary

See what “population explosion” is in other dictionaries:- (D.v.) a sharp increase in the rate of population growth. D.v. associated with socio-economic conditions: increasing food resources, energy, improving medical care, etc. Currently, D.v. takes place in developing countries... Ecological dictionary

Population explosion- sharp acceleration of population growth rates. In developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America in the 50s and 60s. 20th century due to a decrease in mortality, especially among children, while maintaining a high birth rate. The “population explosion” has exacerbated the problems... Political science. Dictionary.

Population explosion- DEMOGRAPHIC EXPLOSION, a sharp acceleration in world population growth (in 1900 50 by an average of 0.9% per year, in 1950 2000 by 2.1% per year) mainly due to the growth of the population of developing countries (over 70% of world population). In these... Illustrated Encyclopedic Dictionary

See what “population explosion” is in other dictionaries:- a sharp acceleration in population growth due to the establishment of an intermediate type of population reproduction. There are three main types of population reproduction: archetype, traditional (intensive) type and modern (extensive) type.… … The latest philosophical dictionary

See what “population explosion” is in other dictionaries:- (from the Greek demos people and grapho I write) English. demographic explo sion; German demographische Explosion. A sharp acceleration in population growth rates against the background of a decrease in mortality while maintaining a high birth rate. Antinazi. Encyclopedia of Sociology, 2009 ... Encyclopedia of Sociology

By the beginning of the 19th century, the world population approached the billion mark. Then it took two centuries to double the previous number. The next doubling occurred after 120 years; The two-billion mark was crossed in the 20s of our century. It has already taken 50 years for the planet's population to double again, because in the 70s it exceeded the four billion mark. This continuously accelerating rate of population growth, observed since the second half of the twentieth century, is called the “demographic explosion.”

However, this phenomenon is not new in the history of mankind. The demographic explosion is caused by a demographic revolution, which means a radical change in the sphere of population reproduction. As a result of such changes, a time gap arises between birth rates and deaths. The population explosion is the result of the incompleteness of the demographic revolution.

What causes the demographic revolution? The main reason is the sharp decline in mortality. Causes of mortality are usually divided into two types: exogenous and endogenous. The first type of causes of mortality includes external circumstances in relation to a person, such as an accident, war, unsanitary conditions, hunger, etc. Endogenous (internal) causes associated with natural aging and negative environmental influences.

A sharp decrease in mortality occurs due to a decrease in exogenous mortality. A demographic revolution occurs due to a sudden decrease in exogenous mortality. However, in order for the demographic revolution to lead to a demographic explosion, it is necessary to simultaneously maintain the procreation behavior of the population (i.e., behavior associated with the birth of children; from the Latin word procreatio - birth, bringing into being).

Using the example of Europe, we can show two types of demographic revolutions - French and English. At the beginning of the 19th century, these countries experienced a sharp decline in mortality. However, in France, along with mortality, the birth rate also decreased, and in England, the procreation behavior of the population did not change. This led to the fact that during the 19th century the population of England grew by 3.4 times, i.e. England experienced a population explosion, while for France this process passed unnoticed.

The modern demographic explosion is distinguished by the fact that there has been a sharp, unprecedented in the history of mankind, reduction in mortality among a significant part of the world's population. In other words, a global demographic revolution occurred while maintaining the same procreative behavior. We are facing a global demographic explosion, the power of which exceeds all previous ones that were local in nature.

As follows from the essence of the demographic explosion, this phenomenon is temporary, which means that sooner or later it must stop. But how soon will this happen, and what needs to be done to stop it as quickly as possible?

The historical experience of Europe and those countries where demographic revolutions have already occurred and the population has stabilized indicates that the world population must ultimately become stationary.

The population explosion will stop as soon as the gap in birth and death rates disappears. The causes of mortality - exogenous and endogenous - have already been discussed by us. But no matter how difficult it is to predict mortality, the reasons that cause changes in fertility are less studied, which in turn makes it difficult to forecast fertility.

The birth rate is usually determined by the number of girls born, using gross and net coefficients. The gross coefficient (r) is the number of girls born to each woman on average. To determine it, take the average number of children (n) per woman of childbearing age and multiply it by 0.485. Thus, the gross coefficient is determined by the formula r = 0.485 n. However, not all girls(r) will live to reach the average age at which women in a given country begin to give birth. The percentage of those who survive to this age is determined by the coefficient l. The product of r and l, i.e. the average number of girls born to one woman and who replace them is called the net population reproduction rate - r*.

Thus, when r*= 1 - the population does not change;

· Now in Europe and Japan - r*~ 1.08;
· North Africa - r*~ 2.29;
· Central America - r*~ 2.71.

When forecasting population size, it is necessary to remember the so-called demographic growth potential. Suppose that in developing countries in the early 70s the net coefficient became equal to one. We know that when r* = 1 the population does not change. Therefore, the population of these countries can be expected to remain unchanged. However, as calculations show, by 2050 their numbers would increase by more than 60%. This change in population size is due to its age structure. The potential for demographic growth can be both positive and negative. In developing countries, due to high birth rates, there is a very “young” age structure and therefore the population growth potential is positive and very high.

According to UN calculations, the world population in 2075 according to the “middle” option will be 12.2 billion people, according to the “lower” option - 9.5 and 15.8 - according to the “highest”. demographic russia population

The share of the population of more developed regions will decrease by almost 2.3 times. South Asia will remain the most populated region of the world. But Africa will take second place, significantly displacing East Asia, which contains the most populous country in the modern world - China.

Another equally important problem associated with stopping the demographic explosion is the aging of the population. The fact is that throughout the history of mankind up to the present, the birth rate has always been quite high, and therefore the age composition of the population has always been “young”. However, by the end of this century, the proportion of older people in Europe will exceed 13%. And although the same figure for developing countries will hardly reach 5%, nevertheless, the process of population aging is inevitable for them too.

Aging slows the flow of labor and simultaneously increases the burden on the social security system. According to the French demographer J. Bougois-Pich, average life expectancy (with the complete elimination of exogenous mortality) can reach 77-78 years. UN demographers consider the age of 74.8 years as the limit for the foreseeable future.

The population size in ancient times can only be estimated approximately. Scientists believe that by the beginning of the Neolithic (7-8 thousand years BC) there were about 10 million inhabitants on earth, and the population growth rate was 10-20% per millennium. The average life expectancy did not exceed 20 years.

After the Neolithic Revolution, population growth accelerated markedly, and by 2000 BC. its number had already reached 50 million, and by the beginning of our era - 200-250 million people. However, the average annual increase was only 0.1%.

The growth of the world's population is presented in table 13.

Table 13. – World population growth

As can be seen from the table, in order to “print” the first billion, the entire previous history of mankind was required, and in the 20th century alone, the population increase by this round figure was achieved 5 times. This increase in the world's population is called population explosion. In the second half of the 20th century alone, the world's population increased 2.4 times (from 2.5 to 6.1 billion people) with an absolute increase of 70-80 million and even 90 million people. in year. This corresponds to a growth rate of 1.5-2% per year. However, global figures mask very significant differences between developed and developing countries. In the second half of the 90s. 95% of the world's population growth occurred in developing countries. The demographic explosion in developing countries has become a natural consequence of the demographic situation, which is characterized by 2 main distinctive features:

Firstly, a significant reduction in mortality (the use of medical advances, the first successes of young independent states in the economic and cultural spheres),

Secondly, the persistence of high birth rates.

This has led to the fact that today, out of 145 million children born annually in the world, 125 are born in developing countries.

The peak of world population growth occurred in the 50-70s. In the 1980s the overall rate of population growth began to gradually slow down, and among developing countries internal differentiation in the nature of population reproduction became noticeable. On this basis, developing countries can be divided into three groups:

1) countries at the peak of a population explosion. The population growth rate is 2.1 - 3.7% per year, which means that on average there are 6-8 children per woman in these countries. Most of the countries in this group are located in Tropical Africa and South-West Asia: Libya, Togo, Niger, Chad, Palestine, Yemen, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands and several others. The doubling of the population in this group of countries occurs in 25 years or even less.

2) countries in which the demographic explosion has begun to decline due to a decrease in the birth rate. These are, as a rule, more economically developed countries: Brazil, Chile, India, Indonesia, Iran, Lebanon, Turkey, Tunisia, Morocco. The doubling of the population of these countries occurs in 35-55 years.

3) countries that have entered a period of stabilization of population reproduction. The population growth rate in these countries is 1% per year. These countries are: China, Thailand, Argentina.

The continuation of the population explosion poses a great threat. It is believed that the solution to all other global problems largely depends on the solution to the demographic problem. First of all, it is important to predict the further development of the demographic situation in the world. Demographic forecasts for 2025 have already been changed and refined several times, each time in the direction of decreasing indicators. It is currently believed that the world population will reach 7.8 billion people by 2025. At the same time, the share of developing countries in the world population will increase even more and reach 85%. In terms of absolute growth, the first place will remain with foreign Asia - more than 1 billion people, and in relative terms - with Africa, where the population will increase by 60%. Such growth threatens to complicate the already difficult problems of socio-economic development in third world countries.

The demographic forecast for 2050 provides even more food for thought. According to the UN forecast, the world's population will reach 9 billion people by this time. Moreover, the population of developed countries will be 1.2 billion, developing countries - 7.8 billion people, including the population of the group of least developed countries will increase to 1.6 billion people. UN experts also believe that by the middle of the 21st century. Approximately 30 countries around the world will experience population decline. Among these countries are most countries of Western Europe, Russia, Ukraine, and Japan. And the populations of India, Pakistan, and Nigeria will grow at the fastest rates.

The solution to the demographic problem lies in the implementation of demographic policy. Demographic policy is the purposeful activity of government bodies and other social institutions in the sphere of regulating the reproduction of the population, designed to maintain or change the trends in the dynamics of its population and structure. In other words, this is a policy that affects the processes of fertility, marriage, divorce, age structure of the population and its mortality.

Demographic policy is based on a set of measures:

Economic, aimed primarily at stimulating the birth rate (paid leaves, benefits for the birth of children, benefits for children depending on their number, age and family composition, various loans, credits, housing and tax benefits),

Administrative and legal (legislative acts regulating the age of marriage, divorce, attitudes towards abortion and the use of contraceptives, the property status of the mother and children in the event of family breakdown, the working regime of working women, etc.),

Educational and propaganda, aimed at shaping public opinion, norms and standards of demographic behavior, determining attitudes towards religious and other traditions and customs of population reproduction and family planning policy, sex education and youth education, etc.

See what “population explosion” is in other dictionaries:

DEMOGRAPHIC EXPLOSION - a sharp acceleration of population growth due to the establishment of an intermediate type of population reproduction. There are three main types of population reproduction: archetype, traditional (intensive) type and modern (extensive) type. The archetype belongs to the early period of human history, to pre-class society, its existence is a hypothesis. The traditional type dominates in pre-capitalist class agrarian societies and in the early stages of capitalism; the modern type arose first in countries of developed capitalism and is gradually spreading to almost all countries of the world. For the archetype and traditional type, the population growth rate is determined mainly by the mortality rate, which is quite high; The birth rate is also high and compensates for the high death rate. For the modern type of population reproduction and transitional demographic development regimes, the population growth rate is determined by the birth rate, while the mortality rate is relatively low. The transition from one type of population reproduction to another does not occur instantly, but over a period of time, when the so-called intermediate type of population reproduction is established, combining the features of the outgoing and incoming types. During the transition from traditional to modern types of population reproduction, as a rule, the decrease in mortality significantly outpaces the decrease in fertility, which leads to an accelerated increase in population - D.V. It should be noted that in rare cases, a change from a traditional type to a modern one occurs without D.V. (France, 19th century), but this is an exception to the rule. D.V. There are two types: small D.V. and big D.W. Maly D.V. It is of regional importance and does not have a major impact on the world population. This pattern of demographic transition was typical for most European countries. With a large D.V. There is a huge excess of the number of births over the number of deaths, and therefore the rate of population growth increases sharply. Big D.V. characteristic of most developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, and its beginning dates back to the 1950s. V. stops. However, according to the most optimistic forecasts of demographers, D.V. will stop on Earth no earlier than the middle of the 21st century. Currently, the world's population continues to grow rapidly, its number has already reached approximately 5.7 billion people, and by the year 2000 it is predicted to exceed 6 billion people. Over the course of one hour, the number of earthlings increases by 10,000 people, and of these, less than 800 children appear in industrialized countries per hour. At the same time, rapid population growth in developing countries is outpacing the economic and social development of these countries, significantly, which aggravates the problem of providing a rapidly growing population with food, water, raw materials and energy resources, maintaining the required level of education, creating a sufficient number of jobs, etc. All this turns the problem of D.V. not only one of the global population problems, but also a global problem of our time. The consequences of the global D.V. are the growing gap in the living standards of the population of developed and developing countries, the deterioration in the quality of life of the population of the countries covered by D.V., uncontrolled urbanization in these countries, rising unemployment, etc. These phenomena are called “paradoxes of backwardness” and, of course, contain a potential danger for the development of the world demographic situation. In assessing the consequences of D.V., two opposing assessments mainly predominate: negative and positive. Proponents of the first point of view, for example, P. Ehrlich (USA), call population growth a “great evil”, giving the most gloomy forecasts. Representatives of another, opposite camp, for example, D. Simon (USA), believe that the larger the population, the more talented people, the more opportunities to solve all the problems that arise in connection with population growth. At the same time, it is even noted that all the most significant scientific discoveries in the history of mankind occur at the peaks of growth in its population. To cope with the current situation, the world community is making quite a lot of attempts to regulate population growth in developing countries: from the development of national birth control programs (China, India and other countries) to the implementation of international projects in this area (World Conference on Population and Development, Cairo , 1994). However, the problem of world D.V. it is not easy to solve; its solution requires the efforts of many specialists and government officials, changing the psychology of people in the field of population reproduction, and implementing effective demographic and social policies.

The latest philosophical dictionary. - Minsk: Book House.

A. A. Gritsanov.

Demographic Encyclopedic Dictionary - “DEMOGRAPHIC EXPLOSION”, a sharp acceleration in population growth rates. In developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America in the 50s and 60s. 20th century caused by a decrease in mortality (see MORTALITY), especially among children, while maintaining a high birth rate... ...

encyclopedic Dictionary

1999. Big Encyclopedic Dictionary

See what "DEMOGRAPHIC EXPLOSION" is in other dictionaries: Political science. Dictionary.

- (from the Greek demos people and grapho I write) English. demographic explo sion; German demographische Explosion. A sharp acceleration in population growth rates against the background of a decrease in mortality while maintaining a high birth rate. Antinazi. Encyclopedia of Sociology, 2009 ... Encyclopedia of Sociology

Sharp acceleration of population growth rates. In developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America in the 50s and 60s. 20th century due to a decrease in mortality, especially among children, while maintaining a high birth rate. The population explosion has exacerbated the problems... ... Sharp acceleration of population growth rates. In developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America in the 50s and 60s. 20th century due to a decrease in mortality, especially among children, while maintaining a high birth rate. The “population explosion” has exacerbated the problems... Ecological dictionary

"POPULATION EXPLOSION"

- periodic sharp increase in population associated with the improvement of socio-economic or general environmental factors (settlement of a new territory, etc.). Characteristic of the current stage of the demographic revolution of mankind.... ...

Introduction

The concept and essence of the demographic explosion

The impact of the population explosion on international economic security

"POPULATION EXPLOSION"

Conclusion

Bibliography

In the demographic history of mankind, two large periods can be roughly distinguished. The first of them corresponded to the so-called agrarian civilization and lasted until approximately the second half of the 17th century. It was characterized by relatively low population growth. In the conditions of a primitive society, even in the presence of polygamy (i.e., polygamy), natural growth was insignificant, since the birth rate and death rate, being at a high level, were mutually balanced.

The most noticeable changes in the number of inhabitants of the globe, which marked the transition to the second period of demographic development, have occurred over the past three-plus centuries. But even against this background, the growth rate in the 60s turned out to be unprecedented. Then the concept of a demographic explosion arose - a sharp increase in population growth, and gloomy forecasts of the rapid overpopulation of the planet appeared.

The purpose of this work is to study the impact of the population explosion on international economic security.

Consider the threats to international economic security caused by the population explosion.

The object of this work is the population explosion.

The subject of this work is the peculiarities of the influence of the population explosion on international economic security.

1. The concept and essence of the demographic explosion

The population explosion is a figurative designation for the rapid quantitative growth of the world population that began in the 1950s. From journalistic literature, the term “Demographic Explosion” has passed into modern scientific research, including works examining the concept of demographic transition. From the standpoint of this concept, a demographic explosion is a sharp acceleration of population growth due to the establishment of an intermediate type of reproduction of us. As a rule, during this period, the decrease in mortality significantly outpaces the decrease in fertility, which leads to an accelerated increase in population, which may not be consistent with the objective requirements of the socio-economic development of society.

The transition from the traditional to the modern type of population reproduction began at the end of the 18th century in a number of capitalist countries of Western Europe, gradually spread to other countries and by the middle of the 20th century covered the whole world. In different countries, the demographic transition has its own characteristics, determined by the entire course of historical development, the economic, political, social and cultural restructuring of society along the path of industrial development, and the socio-economic system under which this transition takes place in a particular country. Hence, in particular, the differences in the duration and power of the demographic explosion.

Three typical patterns of development of the modern demographic transition can be distinguished (see Fig. 1). The first (A) was typical for France, where the change in types (and corresponding regimes) of fertility and mortality occurred almost in parallel, due to which this country practically did not experience a demographic explosion. This scheme is an exception to the general rule; in most countries where the demographic transition unfolded in the 19th century, it proceeded according to scheme B. In Great Britain, for example, the decline in mortality began at the same time as in France (at the end of the 18th century), and the decline birth rate - 100 years later, as a result of which during the 19th century the country's population increased by almost 26 million people or 3.4 times (the population of France - by a little more than 40%); at the same time, at least 10 million people emigrated (emigration from France was insignificant).

Scheme B was typical for most European countries, and therefore Western Europe as a whole experienced a demographic explosion in the 19th century. Its population almost doubled over the course of a century (in the 18th century it increased by less than one and a half times) and, moreover, several tens of millions of people emigrated from Western European countries. The demographic explosion in Western Europe ended quite quickly - at the beginning of the 20th century. He left a noticeable mark on history, because he contributed to a significant increase in the population of this region and the settlement of the New World, but still had limited, regional significance and could not have a significant impact on the growth rate of the world population.

Figure 1 - Typical development patterns of the demographic transition and demographic explosion: A - absence of a demographic explosion (France); B - small population explosion (Sweden); B - Big Population Explosion (Sri Lanka)

Since the current extremely high growth rates of the world's population are decisively determined by the rate of its increase in the developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America (where about 70% of the world's population lives), the population explosion in these countries is turning into a global one.

The population explosion is a temporary phenomenon; As the demographic transition develops, the disrupted consistency of types and regimes of fertility and mortality is restored, the intermediate type of population reproduction is replaced by the main one, and the demographic explosion stops.

However, the pace of the demographic transition depends on general socio-economic development, and if it, as is the case in most liberated countries, proceeds relatively slowly, the intermediate type of population reproduction persists for a long time. In many developing countries, demographic policies are being pursued aimed at overcoming the transitional nature of population reproduction, in particular at an accelerated decline in the birth rate.

Forecasts for the development of the global population explosion proceed from the fact that the process of demographic stabilization will everywhere end in approaching the state characteristic of a stationary population. In different regions of the world this will happen at different times (in accordance with the passage of these regions into the final phases of the demographic transition), but in most developing countries no earlier than the middle of the 21st century.

It is expected that, although some growth in the world population will continue into the 22nd century, the bulk of the upcoming growth will occur in the 1st half of the 21st century, by the middle of which there will be 10-12 billion people living on the globe. At the same time, the share of the population of individual countries and regions in the entire world population will change significantly, in particular, the share of the current economically developed countries (30% in 1970) will be reduced by approximately half, foreign Europe will move from 3rd place (after South and East Asia) to 5th , Africa from 4th to 2nd, ahead of East Asia.

2. The impact of the population explosion on international economic security

The demographic situation in the modern world is very diverse. In general, the planet is experiencing a significant increase in population, which is called the “demographic explosion.” Thus, in 1800, about 1 billion people lived on Earth; It took 130 years to double the human population from 1 to 2 billion (in 1930), and for the subsequent doubling - only 45 years (4 billion people - in 1975). The five billionth earthling appeared in 1987. At the turn of the 20th century XXI centuries The number of inhabitants of our planet has reached 6 billion.

However, the “demographic explosion” in our time does not occur throughout the entire world community, but primarily in the countries of Asia, Africa and partly Latin America. For example, in India, 56 thousand new residents are born every day, and, according to forecasts, by 2016 India will become the first country in the world in terms of population. Such a rapid increase in population leads to an exacerbation of social, economic, environmental and other problems (increasing number of illiterate people, people living below the poverty line, etc.). Let us note the main problems arising as a result of the population explosion and threatening international economic security.

Fresh water shortage problem

The growth in fresh water consumption by the population on the planet is estimated at 0.5-2% per year. At the beginning of the next century, total water intake is expected to be 12-24 thousand km³. Water consumption increases due to increasing prosperity, as can be seen in the following example. Water consumption by one urban resident in the southern regions of Russia is: in a house without sewerage 75, in a house with sewerage 120, with a gas water heater 210 and with all amenities 275 l/day.

For a city in central Russia, the water consumption rate according to the "Household and Drinking Consumption Standards for Settled Settlements" (SNiP-I.31-74) is: in houses without bathtubs 125-160, with bathtubs and heaters 160-230 and with centralized hot water water supply 250-350 l/day.

Fresh water losses increase with the growth of per capita consumption and are associated with the use of water for household needs. Most often this is due to imperfect technology in industrial, agricultural production and public services. Water losses from water-carrying communications in Russian cities amount to 30-50%. In regional cities, water losses amount to approximately 10-15 million tons per year and double every 5 years. Large losses of fresh water occur during the development of mineral deposits and during construction drainage of urban areas.

Now there are armed conflicts due to lack of fresh water. Also, a lack of fresh water can lead to manifestations of separatism and terrorism. An example is the incident that took place on March 26, 2008 on the Kyrgyz-Tajik border. About 150 residents of the Tajik district of Isfara, led by the governor and accompanied by Tajik police, broke through the border into the Batken region of Kyrgyzstan and tried to destroy a dam built several years ago with financial assistance from the World Bank. Thus, they wanted to restore the previous flow from Kyrgyzstan to Tajikistan of the Aksai River, which is the main source of water for Isfara. The governor criticized the Kyrgyz authorities, saying they had no right to build the dam because the area is disputed.

In 2013, the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, devoted seven of its meetings to the problem of water scarcity. One result was that the rich world had to save water - it was time to end the snow cannons. But developing countries also need to change their thinking. The problem of water scarcity cannot be solved by carrying out one campaign after another. Instead, it was proposed to create an intermediary network designed to maximize the value of projects by coordinating them, seeking to meet the needs of both people and industry. This problem is also being raised at the UN. The General Assembly proclaimed 2005-2015 the International Decade for Action “Water for Life”.

The problem of water shortage is also being solved in certain regions. Thus, Israel has adopted a project on the reuse of water from air conditioners. Representatives of the Water Corporation want to offer it to other cities in Israel. After all, using water from air conditioners for irrigation is really beneficial. Firstly, it is saving such a valuable resource in the country - water. Secondly, this will allow us not to raise prices for drinking water, which is becoming increasingly expensive to purchase in other countries. Thirdly, in conditions of water shortage, this will allow residents to preserve green spaces in the city.

The problem of limited food supplies

As a result of the demographic explosion, the problem of food shortages is most acute in many developing countries (according to UN statistics, these also include a number of post-socialist states). In particular, Mongolia is one of the most needy countries, where average per capita food consumption by energy value is less than 2000 kcal per day and continues to decline.

Global agricultural production is constrained by limited land in both developed and developing countries. This is due to the high level of urbanization, the need to preserve forests, and limited water resources. The problem of food shortages is most acute in the poorest countries, which are unable to allocate significant funds for food imports.

Reduction of agricultural land

The traditional rural landscape with its national characteristics is undoubtedly the national cultural heritage of each country. With the decline in the agricultural population, there is a threat of its loss. This problem is especially relevant for Western European countries, which have long tried to solve this problem by economically supporting their own farmers. The special relevance of agricultural protectionism is evidenced by the fact that throughout post-war history the problem of its elimination occupies the most important place among the problems of international trade. This issue was central to the development of the Treaty of Rome, which began the European Economic Union.

Currently, virtually all or almost all cultivable land is used. Plowing up new, less convenient areas can lead to higher prices for agricultural products and negative consequences for the environment, as has already happened in areas of unstable agriculture, for example, in a number of African countries. Although agricultural area is still expanding, it is doing so at a slower pace, with the growth of arable land notably lagging behind the expansion of agricultural land. According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the share of agricultural land over the past 30 years has increased from 33.13 to 35.71% of all land, and the share of arable land - from 10.41 to 11.03%, that is, by a fraction of a percent . The area of cultivated land during 1961-1990 increased from 1.3 billion hectares to 1.4 billion hectares. The area of arable land has practically stabilized. population population explosion reproduction

According to calculations by scientists from the World Hunger Program (Brown University, USA) R. Cates, R. Chen and others, the world harvest of field products in the 80-90s of the 20th century with an even distribution and without their diversion to feed livestock could be enough to provide a vegetarian diet for 6 billion people. With a diet in which almost 15% of calories come from animal products (typical of South America), 4 billion people could be fed. A diet in which livestock products accounted for about 30% of calories consumed (mostly in developed countries) would feed only 2.6 billion people.

Solving the food problem is associated not only with increasing food production, but also with the development of strategies for the rational use of food resources, which should be based on an understanding of the qualitative and quantitative aspects of human nutritional needs.

As a result of the implementation of measures aimed at weakening protectionism in the production of agricultural goods, we can expect a strengthening of the positions in the world food market of those countries that have the most developed agriculture, focused on the needs of the external market (USA, EU, Canada, Australia, Argentina, etc. ). At the same time, agricultural producers in net food importing countries, if they fail to adapt to new conditions, will suffer significant losses due to reductions in subsidies for their production.

The problem of provision of fuel, raw materials and energy resources

Minerals are the input material of any production process, so they have an impact on the economy and can cause serious disruption. Tension in the use of mineral resources is associated with the limited nature of natural resources, the discrepancy between the distribution of mineral resources and the level of development of productive forces; in addition, the mining industry as a whole creates 10% of the world's GDP.

It is necessary to strengthen the regime for saving raw materials, reduce the material intensity of production, create reserve reserves of critical types of mineral raw materials, increase the use of secondary raw materials, and pursue a policy to increase self-sufficiency. France: More than 70% of electricity is produced by nuclear power plants. During the period of the 70-80s. last century, a powerful mining industry was created in industrialized countries (Australia, Canada, South Africa, USA). Two oil production areas were discovered: the North Sea and Alaska. Developed countries have set a course to spread their influence. USA - Persian Gulf. Japan began exporting capital.

Developing countries are developing their own gas production industry and are pursuing a policy of retaining part of the income from the export of raw materials. Interstate organizations of mineral producing countries were created in order to obtain a stable income. However, only OPEC achieved significant results.

Thus, it should be stated that, according to researchers, the ever-increasing world population requires more and more food and energy, mineral resources, which causes increasing pressure on the planet’s biosphere and leads to conflicts.

The concept and essence of the demographic explosion

Growth of the Earth's population in the middle of the 20th century. acquired a rapid pace and was called the demographic explosion. A demographic explosion is a sharp increase in the rate of growth of the Earth's population associated with changes in socio-economic or general environmental living conditions.

Currently, approximately 180 people are born on the planet every minute, 21 people are born every second, and 19 people die every second. Thus, the population of the Earth increases by 2 people per second, by 250 thousand daily. The annual increase is approximately 80 million, almost all of it in developing countries. In our time, the number of people on the planet doubles in 35 years, and food production grows by 2.3% per year and doubles in 30 years.

It should be noted that the population problem is not directly related to the number of inhabitants on our planet. The land can feed more people. The problem is the uneven distribution of people across the surface of the planet.

Bibliography

1. Vishnevsky A.G. World population explosion and its problems. - M.: Knowledge, 2010. - 244 p.

Vishnevsky A.G. Selected demographic works. In two volumes. T. I. Demographic theory and demographic history. - M.: Nauka, 2013. - 344 p.

Dolnik V.R. Are there biological mechanisms for regulating human numbers? // Nature. 2012. No. 6. - P.5.

Elizarova V.V., Dzarasova I.V. Demography and socio-economic problems. - M.: MAKS Press, 2011. - 272 p.

Kapitsa S.P. General theory of human growth: How many people have lived, are living and will live on Earth. - M.: Nauka, 2010. - 290 p.

Kovalev E.N. Global food problem. // World economy and international relations. 2004. No. 10 - P.26-34.

Korotaev A.V., Malkov A.S., Khalturina D.A. Laws of history. Mathematical modeling of the development of the World System. Demography, economics, culture. - M.: URSS, 2011. - 276 p.

Stadnitsky G.V., Rodionov A.I. Ecology. - St. Petersburg: Chemistry, 2011. - 240 p.

Causes of the demographic explosion. The concept of population explosion The main reason for the population explosion is

Modern population explosion

Features of the modern population explosion

The end of the population explosion

Literature

Notes

see also

Admetus of Pyrrhida

A. A. Gritsanov.

"POPULATION EXPLOSION"

1. The concept and essence of the demographic explosion

2. The impact of the population explosion on international economic security

The concept and essence of the demographic explosion

Bibliography