Stock reports. How to pick stocks during earnings season

Follow the financial reports of leading companies in a special reporting calendar! You will find out how to make money from this and other details below.

The dates of reports and important events are published in the calendar; all data is official and published on company websites.

This reporting calendar will be useful not only to investors, but also to traders, since important events in companies create strong fluctuations in the market. Increased volatility provides an opportunity to make money in the short term.

  1. If a financial or quarterly or annual report talks about an increase in profits or production, then this generates positive interest from investors, which creates increased demand, and shares begin to rise in price.
  2. If a company announces a decrease in profits, revenue, or increase in expenses, then after such news, stocks will fall.

Publication of reports can move quotes in a previously known direction. On the day of publication, you can make money on a new and strong trend.

  • Below we will show you with a real example how to make money from reports.

To find out when the report will be released, we use the Yahoo Finance calendar (https://finance.yahoo.com/calendar/earnings). By default, only US companies are reflected in it; to add shares from other countries, you need to add them in the filter:

Click on the button Event Filters and add the required countries. The Yahoo calendar indicates whether the report will be published before the start of trading or after the close:

An example of how to make money from company reports

In the reporting calendar we saw an entry that Alibaba Group will publish an annual financial report. The exact time of publication is usually indicated on the company’s official website in the section Investor Relations- most often this is a separate site that can be easily found via Google using the query “ Company name Investor Relations", in our case - " Alibaba Investor Relations«.

A couple of minutes before the opening of trading, report data appears on the company’s website :

The results are simply amazing!

The report says this is the fastest growing year since IPO, and Alibaba shares have been traded on the NYSE since 2014, on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange since 2007. Revenue increased by 60% , income from online trading increased by 47% , from cloud technologies - to 103% , from media entertainment - to 234% ! There were other key positive data points further down in the document. The company's accounts have accumulated 10 billion free funds.

Do you think, after such data, will shares rise or fall?

We also think, of course, to grow, and we already know in advance how the market will behave today.

We prefer to make money on, since only here you can get a fixed profit per transaction from 70%.

  • All you need to do is indicate the price higher or below at the time of closing the transaction, the time of which you specify yourself.

At 16:30 the NYSE opens trading, we open and select stocks

We indicate the transaction time at 17:30 ( in an hour the deal will close automatically):

We already know that stocks will rise today, therefore, the main condition of the option is the growth forecast - UP and buy the option:

If at 17:30 the price of Alibaba shares is higher than at the time of purchase by at least 1 cent, then we will receive a 75% profit on the investment amount, since the growth condition is met.

Since we learned from the report that Alibaba is doing well, naturally the shares will rise. To avoid walking around for a long time, take a look at the chart a few seconds before the option closes:

The stock rose significantly from $114 to $118 in just the first hour of trading on the exchange. Our profit was $90, although all we did was open the calendar and spend two minutes reading and opening a trade. We did not sit at the monitors all day, but only arrived at the time indicated on the calendar.

By and large, we could open several transactions, for 15 minutes, for an hour, for two... - the shares were growing all this time.

Poll: The reporting calendar is:

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Many traders make money only on the results of quarterly reports.

Trades are opened once every day or two, but they are reliable and do not require much time. During earnings season, up to hundreds of companies are published per day, but it is necessary to choose only the most resonant results that are sure to stir the market.

Use data from company reports and make a stable profit!

If you cannot find a report on the company’s official website or do not understand its results ( this happens to us too), we open Google and indicate the section NEWS, In the tools we indicate the time - in the last 24 hours:

All news from the original source is published in English, but this should not be a barrier for you.

We also don’t always understand English and use a browser Chrome in which you can right-click and select “ Translate to Russian".

Based on the news that has opened, we see the results of the report, with explanations and analytics. As a rule, such data is published first by publications - Bussines Insider, Barron's, Reuters, Wall Street Journal and others.

Glossary

  • Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4— Quarterly reports of companies. The year is divided into four quarters, so quarterly reports will be abbreviated below: Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4.
  • Fiscal Year (FY)— Accounting report for the year (financial year). In some companies, the financial year begins not on January 1, but on another specific date, but in total it still amounts to 12 months. Here are some examples of FY accounting dates for US companies:

— From February 1 to January 31
— From October 1 to September 30
— From June 1 to May 31

  • Full Year - Total report for the whole year
  • H1- Half 1, i.e. report for the first half of the year. (Second half trading update, H2- second semester).
  • Blackout period- a certain period during which transactions with securities (shares) of the company are prohibited for all insiders (they are also the owners and each employee of the company). This period is necessary if some information has appeared within the company that has not yet been declassified to the outside world, but which can greatly change the price of the company’s shares. Then persons who have access (direct or indirect) to such information (for example, directors) can easily take advantage of their position and begin to sell or, conversely, buy shares in any way. This is unfair to the market and also illegal. In this regard, the following restriction is introduced: insiders, for example, the same directors, cannot perform any actions with their own shares (those that they own).
  • Bernstein Annual Strategic Decisions Conference— Annual Conference on Strategic Planning
  • Sustainability Report— Development report
  • Investor Day— Investors Day, a meeting of shareholders at which the company’s activities are discussed and new decisions are made.
  • Annual Shareholders Meeting— The annual meeting of shareholders at which the results of the past year are summed up, the annual financial report is approved, the payment of dividends is announced, directors and auditors are elected.
  • Announcement of Interim Results— Interim report
  • Sustainability Report— Company development report
  • Financial report- Financial report
  • Earnings Call— Telephone conference or, as is always implied lately, an Internet conference. On them, the company discusses financial statements for a certain period via the Internet, as well as a toll-free number (800). According to the American National Institute of Investor Relations, 92% of all companies hold such conferences dedicated specifically to financial activities, and virtually all of them are Internet conferences.

Addition

In addition to quarterly reports (4 times a year: Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4), which are of great importance both for investors and for the company itself, the share price can be affected by:

  • new decisions adopted at annual shareholder meetings;
  • new data from various financial reports, such as monthly sales reports;
  • conferences or launch of new company products;
  • statement about a change of management or changes in the company;
  • release of new products.

FOLLOW THE TIME OF SALES OF NEW PRODUCTS!

For example, a corporation is launching a new iPhone, MacBookor Apple Watch... Accordingly, on this day the company will receive huge revenue from the fresh product, which will entail an increase in the share price. We never miss these dates as they bring guaranteed profits. But it is precisely for such cases that we like them more, since here you can earn more than 70% in a short time, for example, in 15-30 minutes.

If you find an error, please highlight a piece of text and click Ctrl+Enter.

) reported a loss of $0.7 billion for the fourth quarter of 2017, but without taking into account the effect of a one-time payment in accordance with new tax requirements, the company's profit amounted to $5.2 billion. Intel management reports that in the form of tax deductions for money located abroad, will have to pay $5.4 billion. At the same time, Intel will return about $39 billion at a tax rate of 15.5%. Part of this money will be used to pay dividends, which the corporation increased by 10%, or $631 million, in 2018. The largest investments (about $10 billion) will be aimed at building high-tech production and attracting highly qualified personnel. About $7 billion more will be spent on implementing a share repurchase program from the market, which will operate for five years. Strategic acquisitions could cost more than $10 billion, but in the current market situation, I believe that Intel is mainly looking at companies with a capitalization of less than $3 billion after the large deal with Mobileye.

The company's revenues in the 4th quarter of 2017 increased by 4% over the year and amounted to $17.1 billion. The main contribution to the growth was made by sales of equipment for data centers, revenue from which increased by 19%, as well as the Internet of Things segment, where the growth rate reached 23.6%. Revenue from providing data centers is generated through the sale of expensive processors. A noticeable improvement in the financial results from this segment indicates Intel's confident position in this market. We expect revenue from this line of business to grow by 20% in the 1st quarter, and we expect this pace to continue until the end of the year.

At the same time, revenue from sales of personal computer processors, the production of which remains Intel's core business, decreased by 2%. Coupled with recent reports of discovered vulnerabilities in the company's products, this does not add optimism. I believe that the decline in revenue from this area of ​​the corporation’s activities will reach 5% in the first two quarters of this year. However, new business segments in which the company has invested recently (programmable chips, memory chips) are seeing revenue growth. This indicates that Intel has chosen the right development strategy. In 2018, I expect an increase in research and development spending by 15%, to $15 billion. First of all, these funds will be used to solve problems with the security of personal chips and search for new sectors of the digital economy. The target price for Intel shares is $53.41. It will be achieved provided that revenue from equipment for data centers increases at an accelerated pace. If sales growth from this segment slows down, the current price of $45 will remain fair for the corporation's securities.

Vadim Merkulov, senior analyst at Freedom Finance Investment Company

Hi all!

Today I will talk about what stock earnings season is, how it affects the market and how to make money from it.

Companies release their earnings reports every 3 months. During reporting periods, volatility in the stock market increases significantly. In this case, an increase can occur even before the release of the report.

Both investors and speculators are watching the release of reports. You can follow the company reporting calendar on my website (). Stocks can react very strongly to reports, while the report may be good, but the stock falls and vice versa. This can be seen very often on the Russian market. The market reaction may not be predictable. Why does this happen and what do you need to know so as not to lose money during this period?

What you need to know about earnings season?

First, follow the release of company reports. At the same time, there is often no relationship between the report and the movement of the stock. For example, the report comes out positive, but the paper falls down. This situation happened in our market a couple of months ago. And this happens not necessarily in our market, but also in any other. Why is this happening? There are a lot of reasons.

Perhaps this information was already known in advance to a certain circle of people and the positive report was acted upon. For this reason, it is very common to see a strong movement of an instrument before the release of important news or a report. Accordingly, when positive news comes out, the paper begins to fall. There is a saying, “buy the rumors, sell the facts.”

It also happens the other way around: the news is negative, but the market begins to grow. Due to the fact that all the negativity has already been played out. It happens that large players push the market where they want it, since they already know the report. Therefore, there is no need to try to guess how the market will react, trade according to the fact. Technical issues also have an impact. For example, levels of support/resistance, company performance compared to competitors, etc.

Therefore, it is impossible to predict what will happen to the market after the report is released. Large investors may also react to the news differently. Some will think that it is impossible to buy, while others will think that the market has played out the negative and now is a good time to buy. It also happens that the majority of analysts and large companies believe that the news will be positive and the market begins to win it back with an increase. After the release of positive news, the market practically does not react at all, since the news has been played out.

How to make money during the reporting period?

Now let’s talk about whether you can make money using reporting and how to trade correctly during this period. I would like to note right away that if you are a speculator, then it is much more important to simply understand that during this period volatility may increase and you need to be a little more careful. What is most important is the overall technical picture. Often we don’t need to know what news or report will come out at all. We trade from what we see. The most important thing is that an input signal must be generated. And then, before the report is released, you can close the position.

But if you are an investor, then the news may be a small clue as to whether you need to buy the paper at the moment or not. In some cases, this may allow you to wait for a more reasonable price to purchase.

After the report is released, the volatility of the instrument may increase. And also, this report can set some dynamics for the further movement of the asset. Even the next day, volatility is usually higher. Therefore, if we have an entry signal, we enter the position. The dynamics of traffic before or after the release of the report can be very good. In this case, you can extend the deal and increase the atr reserve. If you always closed the trade after reaching 100% atr, then in this case, depending on the volatility, you can stretch it to 110-120%.

Note

I would also like to note that the report is not always published on the scheduled day. The company can simply move it. And this happens quite often. Most importantly, always respect the risks. Especially if you postpone the transaction beyond the release date of the report.

Separately, I would like to note that in some cases, while waiting for a report, you can buy paper for your long-term portfolio. But this is only if you generally like the company, have analyzed its fundamentals, and are looking for a good time to buy. In this case, you can look for the key levels from which you are buying and analyze what kind of report is possible. Thanks to this, you will be able to purchase paper at a slightly lower price.

I will end here. Happy trading everyone. Subscribe to site news (subscription form on the right side).

Sincerely, Stanislav Stanishevsky.

What's so exciting about earnings season? The fact that many stocks make strong movements based on the results of the reports. And you can make money from these movements. As long as you control your risk. In this video, I show you how to pick stocks of US publicly traded companies during earnings season. Read the step-by-step instructions under the cut.

The best site for searching for stocks, including during reporting season, is Finviz.com, or rather its screener (I showed how to use this service). For this:

  1. We go to the Finviz.com website, select Screener in the horizontal menu and go to the section for searching for stocks.
  2. On the general settings tab of Descriptive, look for Earnings Date to select company shares by report date.
  3. In the drop-down list, set the desired parameter to search for stocks. For example, you can withdraw shares of companies that:
    • have already reported (yesterday, this week, in the previous 5 days, etc.);
    • will report (today before/after the market, this week, in the next 5 days, etc.).

As a result, we can get a list of stocks on several pages. I recommend shortening this list, leaving the most liquid securities on it. (Liquid shares are those that can be quickly sold without a significant loss on the difference between the purchase and sale prices or).

4. We reduce the resulting list. To do this, in the Descriptive settings:

  • find the Average Volume parameter and select Over 500K/750K/1M from the drop-down list. The higher the volume, the more liquid the security and the smaller the list. (I usually look for stocks with trading volume above 750K per day, choosing Over 750K).
  • find the Price parameter and select Over $5/$7/$10 from the drop-down list. The cheaper a stock is, the more speculative it is and, as a result, riskier. (I usually look for stocks above $5).

Additionally, you can add other parameters that are important to you, for example, presence in the index or belonging to a certain sector. This also optimizes the list.

5. We are looking for stocks with strong price movement. To do this, click at the top of the Price list and sort the resulting list by price change (Change).

6. We analyze the selected shares in the required context. To do this, select from the menu above the list Valuation (fundamental analysis), Financial (financial analysis), Technical (technical analysis), Charts (graphical analysis).

7. Save the configured filter so that you can run it in the future to search for papers. To do this, register or log in to the site. Then at the top of the screener we find the option to save the My Presets settings, select Save Screen from the drop-down list, enter a name in the Name field and click the Save Changes button.

OK it's all over Now. Now you have your own screener for selecting stocks during earnings season (no thanks, no need, just share the post with your friends). Use it as a source to find investment and trading ideas. Read and watch about other sources). If you have questions, suggestions or comments, be sure to write them in the comments below.

The most effective sites during reporting season, in my opinion, are the following sites:

Briefing.com - namely the Calendars section (you can go to it from the horizontal menu). Here you can immediately see a list of companies reporting in the near future and expected performance.

Seeking Alpha – namely the Earnings section (you can go to it from the horizontal menu). Here you can also find a list of companies reporting in the near future, see expected indicators and track the most active movements in the reports.

Despite the fact that both of these sites partially duplicate each other, they complement each other well.

Do you want to be aware of new videos and receive them before they appear on the blog? Subscribe to my channel on Youtube. And of course, like the video to inspire me. More likes - more posts.

Regular market earnings season provides approximately seven weeks of great trading opportunities each quarter.

Every 3 months, joint-stock companies publish their profit reports. This is a gigantic flow of information. Investors, stock market analysts and traders around the world regularly check the earnings release calendar for companies that have reported successfully or poorly.

Traders try to find information that will allow them to increase the size of their.

The balance sheets of enterprises are carefully studied. Every word uttered by the head of the company is greedily caught. The media is adding fuel to the fire. Thousands of companies submit their reports within just a few weeks. Stocks rise and fall as soon as new figures are announced. Earnings season is a real rollercoaster for investors and traders!

Sharp price fluctuations present opportunities

This constant flow of information greatly increases the likelihood of rapid and often destructive price movements. The market reacts with an incredible surge in volatility. Even those companies that have not yet reported may exhibit wild price movements.

Analysts and traders puzzle over how one company's report can make assumptions about another. Investor reactions often seem to make no sense at all. You can often hear complaints about obvious contradictions, when “bad” news pushes the price up, and “good” news makes it fall rapidly. Earnings season is often a frustrating time, even for Wall Street regulars.

Fortunately, several recommendations can be formulated that will allow investors and traders to avoid the collapse of their hopes during this period of time and make good profits every quarter.

To do this, you just need to have some knowledge, apply risk management, be able to use the reporting calendar and know two simple rules.

Rule 1: Things are not always as they seem

To understand the dynamics of earnings season, it's important to realize that there isn't necessarily a strong correlation between a company's profit or loss and the movement of its stock price. For example, the mere fact of a profitable report does not mean that the stock price will automatically go up.

During this period, there are other, more important and influential factors. Momentum, support and resistance zones on the price chart, the correlation between the report and analyst expectations, and the company's performance relative to its peers in the same industry are the factors that typically have a huge impact on the price of a stock in the short term.

Why? Because short-term traders make money from the volatility created by the reports, not from the fundamental strength of the reports themselves. The profit potential for investors and traders directly depends on price fluctuations. And these fluctuations are generated by a situation that can best be described by the word “uncertainty.”

Rule 2: Wall Street hates surprises

The old saying goes: "Wall Street hates uncertainty." It is especially relevant during reporting season. For example, let's say that ten out of ten analysts think a certain company will report lower revenue and a loss. If a company's report meets these expectations, the market usually reacts calmly.

The stock doesn't fall because investors expected the report to be in line with analysts' forecasts. If he matches, no one is surprised. When there are no surprises, the stock market calms down.

How can this knowledge be turned into money?


There is another old saying that says that"buy on rumors, sell on news." The "buy" part of the expression is often thought of in relation to rumors of new product releases or company acquisitions. But it can also be applied successfully to rumors that the company will release a report that will exceed expectations. Wall Street loves surprises like these!

The idea is to buy a stock early when word of good news begins to spread. As soon as a rumor becomes a fact, the stock should be sold immediately. When applied to better-than-expected reports, this strategy is often called the “eve-report strategy.” Here's how it works:

Action plan ahead of the report

  1. We find a company that has a good history of positive surprises, i.e. release of reports better than expected. We are confident that there are expectations that the next quarterly report will be better than analysts' estimates. This kind of information can be found on the Internet.
  2. We look in the calendar at what date the report is scheduled to be released.
  3. 2-3 weeks before this date, on the price chart of this stock, we look for an upward trend or a rebound after a recent pullback. If this occurs, we determine the optimal number of shares to purchase.
  4. We buy the target number of shares, then wait until the price rises in anticipation of a positive report. We check price movements daily. We take profit by selling the position in whole or in part to new buyers immediately before the release of the report.
  5. If we have closed only part of the position, we wait for the release of “good” news on the appointed day. After this, we sell the remaining shares at the final price surge caused by purchases on “good” news by novice traders and investors. Such a surge usually occurs immediately after the release of the report.

It should be noted that step 5 involves some risk. Traders sometimes sell their shares just before a report is released, which can cause the price to fall before that calendar date. Given the presence of such a risk, you need to sell ENTIRE position immediately before the release date of the report.

The good news is that if you continue to hold a small portion of the shares, you can make good money on them. The downside is that the price may drop sharply immediately after a report is released, no matter how good it is. If the report is bad, the relevance of the concept of "selling on the news" is further enhanced by the presence of a large number of disappointed investors. The only win-win option is if the report significantly exceeds analyst estimates and any expectations.

Stocks trade on speculation and expectations. If a stock is expected to release a good report, and after its release it turns out that it just meets expectations, professional traders usually take profits immediately.

Conclusion

There is no regulatory legislation that requires companies to issue a report on a scheduled date. Public companies can (and often do) change the release date of a report without prior notice. Especially often, the scheduled date is canceled in the last week before the release of the report.

Therefore, when you are in a position on a movement strategy on the eve of a report, regularly check the calendar to make sure that the reporting date has not changed. In addition to resources on the Internet, the NYSE and NASDAQ publish their reporting calendars. If the report date has changed, double-check the risk management of that position to ensure you do not incur a loss.

Carrying a large position past the reporting date exposes the trader or investor to unnecessary risks. It is necessary to know the report date of any stock in your portfolio to take profits in advance.

The described strategy can be used quarterly to make a profit. You should start looking for such opportunities in early April, July, October and January. There is no official end date for quarterly earnings season, but it is considered to end after most major companies have released their reports.

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