One of the most important indicators characterizing the level of inflation. Inflation Measuring Indicators

Inflation manifests itself primarily in an increase (obviously hidden) in prices for goods and services of comparable quality. The inflation rate is characterized by the rate of increase (with growth) of the price level compared to the previous period and (calculated on the basis of the consumer price index, usually per rojj as a percentage.

To determine the level of inflation, it is necessary to subtract the consumer price index of the base period from the consumer price index of the current period, divide the resulting difference by the consumer price index of the base period and multiply n| one hundred (percentage):

Where /infl is the inflation rate in percent;

The analysis of the impact of inflation processes on economic indicators is carried out at various levels: at the macro level, sectoral and at the level of individual enterprises, and therefore they are divided into three groups.

The first group includes indicators of deflation of macroeconomic final indicators (GDP, final consumption expenditures, gross capital formation, etc.).

The problem of deflation at the macro level means determining the value of GDP over a number of years. Deflation is carried out using three methods.

The first method involves the process of deflating a value expressed in current prices into the prices of the previous period. The price index - the GDP deflator is calculated by dividing the value of the analyzed indicator in actual prices by its value in comparable prices. GDP def - lator index is the ratio of GDP in current prices to the volume of GDP in constant prices of the previous year. The GDP deflator index characterizes changes in wages, profits and consumption of fixed assets, and net taxes. It is calculated using the Pa-ache formula:

Where Zp, gi - GDP in current prices;

ZPoGh - GDP of the current period in comparable prices.

This revaluation is called a direct deflator.

The second method is called double deflation and is carried out at the production stage. Double deflation is carried out using two price indices and consists of separately revaluing the indicators of gross output and intermediate consumption into comparable prices (by industry):

Where GVA(P0) is the gross value added of the current period! in comparable prices;

TPQ - gross output at current prices;

T, t 101 - intermediate consumption at current prices;

1tsenBB - price index for gross output;

1tsenPP - price index for intermediate consumption. This method is more accurate, but its calculation is difficult due to the fact that there is often no data on the structure of intermediate consumption.

The third method is the method of extrapolation of the basic level of va| economic value added using the physical output volume index. As a result of extrapolation of industry indicators, we obtain the level of GVA of the current period in comparison with | given prices, and the sum of these indicators gives the volume of GVA at the country level.

In practice, deflation can also be carried out at the end-use stage by constantly revaluing the end-use elements of GDP.

The second group of indicators characterizing changes in income, consumption and living standards due to rising prices (industry level) includes indicators of consumer prices and the dynamics of prices for consumer goods, income and expenses of the population, indicators of the purchasing power of the ruble | wages, the cost of a set of basic food products, etc.

The composite consumer price index is a general indicator of inflation. Its dynamics over time by region! compared with other indicators is a characteristic of inflation. Here the coefficient of advance of consumer prices is calculated in comparison with the growth rates of other indicators.

One of the relative indicators of the characteristics of the level and dynamics of inflation is the ratio of the cost of food products to the amount of monetary income of the population

X 9іРіх10°

Where /inf is the inflation rate, in%;

Z<7iPi - стоимость набора продуктов питания;

D, - cash income of the population.

A clear characteristic of inflation is the purchasing power indicator, which is calculated as the ratio of the average monthly wage to the price of specific goods, determined based on data from sample budget surveys. In this group of indicators, it is possible to calculate the ratio of the subsistence level: with the average per capita wage income of the population, the average monthly salary, and the average pension.

The third group of indicators characterizing the level of inflation includes indicators of changes in profit and product profitability due to rising inflation. For factor analysis of profit and profitability, the following indices are used:

X °1Р1

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Inflation affects the economy both positively and negatively. It depends on the rate of its growth. Most often inflation

leads to negative consequences in the economy:

1. Increases imbalances in the economy. An uneven rise in prices for goods contributes to the transfer of capital from some branches of production to others (production expands in some industries and contracts in others). At the same time, incentives for long-term investments are undermined, which leads to increased unemployment, inhibition of the process of capital accumulation, and disruption of economic relations.

2. Creates conditions for the flow of capital from production to the sphere of circulation. Speculative trading arises, where capital quickly turns around and brings profit. Inflation leads to the depreciation of all forms of industrial capital.

3. Distorts the structure of consumer demand. Rising prices generate a desire to turn money into real money valuable goods, regardless of the need for them.

4. Violates the capacity of the domestic market. Real wages of all segments of the population are declining, and the sale of goods is becoming more difficult due to a reduction in effective demand.

5. Disrupts functioning monetary system. A decrease in the purchasing power of money leads to a reduction in the volume of cash savings and thereby to a reduction in the resources of financial and credit institutions. The struggle for areas of attracting and investing capital is intensifying. A significant part of them no longer returns to the domestic market, either in goods or in monetary form.

6. Negatively affects international economic relations. The depreciation of money leads to a decrease in the competitiveness of exporting firms and contributes to the import of goods from abroad. In search of a profitable application and a reliable refuge for capital, capital flows abroad, as a result of which the country’s balance of payments deteriorates.

7. Intensifies the process of government funding. Stimulates the filling of the budget through the issue of banknotes. At the same time, tax revenues to the treasury depreciate, and the problem of public debt worsens.

8. The currency crisis is worsening. Differences in inflation rates between countries lead to a discrepancy between the official and market exchange rates. Inflation contributes to an increase in international means of payment (their mass).

4.4. Indicators characterizing the level of inflation

Inflation manifests itself, first of all, in an increase (explicit and hidden) in prices for goods and services of comparable quality. Inflation rate characterized by the rate of increase (increase) in the price level compared to the previous period and is calculated on the basis of the consumer price index, usually as a percentage for the year.

To determine the level of inflation, it is necessary to subtract the consumer price index of the base period from the consumer price index of the current period, divide the resulting difference by the consumer price index of the base period and multiply by one hundred (as a percentage).

−I

pc 1

× 100

where Iinfl is the inflation rate in percent;

The analysis of the impact of inflation processes on economic indicators is carried out at various levels: at the macro level, sectoral and at the level of individual enterprises, and therefore they are divided into three groups.

The first group includes indicators of deflation of macroeconomic final indicators (GDP, final consumption expenditures, gross capital formation, etc.).

The problem of deflation at the macro level means determining the value of GDP over a number of years. Deflation is carried out using three methods:

The first method involves the process of deflating a value expressed in current prices into prices of the previous period. The price index - the GDP deflator is calculated by dividing the value of the analyzed indicator in actual prices by its value in comparable prices. The GDP deflator index is the ratio of GDP in current prices to the volume of GDP in constant prices of the previous year. The GDP deflator index characterizes changes in wages, profits and consumption of fixed assets, and net taxes. It is calculated using the Paasche formula.

I defl = ∑ ∑

p1 g 1

p 0 g 1

where ∑p1 g1 – GDP in current prices;

∑p0 g1 – GDP of the current period in comparable prices.

This revaluation is called a direct deflator.

The second method is called double deflation and is carried out at the production stage. Double deflation is carried out using two price indices and consists in the fact that indicators of gross output and intermediate consumption are separately revalued into comparable prices (by industry).

∑ g 1 p 1

∑ m 1 p 1

1 (p 0 )

where GVA 1 (P0) is the gross value added of the current period in comparable prices;

∑ g 1 р 1 – gross output at current prices;

∑ m 1 р 1 – intermediate consumption in current prices;

I prices BB – price index for gross output;

I PP prices – price index for intermediate consumption.

This method is more accurate, but its calculation is complicated by the fact that there is often no data on the structure of intermediate consumption.

The third method is the method of extrapolating the basic level of gross value added using an index of physical volume of production. As a result of extrapolation of industry indicators, we obtain the level of GVA for the current period in comparable prices, and the sum of these indicators gives the volume of GVA at the country level.

In practice, deflation can also be achieved at the end-use stage by continually re-evaluating the end-use elements of GDP.

The second group of indicators characterizing changes in income, consumption and living standards due to rising prices (industry level) includes indicators of consumer prices and price dynamics for consumer goods, income and expenses of the population, indicators of the purchasing power of the ruble and wages, the cost of a set of basic products food, etc.

The composite consumer price index is a general indicator of inflation. Its dynamics over time by region in comparison with other indicators is a characteristic of inflation. Here the coefficient of advance of consumer prices compared to the growth rates of other indicators is calculated.

One of the relative indicators of the level and dynamics of inflation is the ratio of the cost of a set of food products to the amount of monetary income of the population.

I inf =

∑ g 1 p 1 × 100 ,

D 1

where I inf – inflation rate, in%;

∑ g 1 р 1 – cost of a set of food products; D 1 – cash income of the population.

A clear characteristic of inflation is the purchasing power indicator, which is calculated as the ratio of the average monthly wage to the price of specific goods, determined based on data from sample budget surveys. In this group of indicators, it is possible to calculate the ratio of the subsistence level: WITH the average per capita wage income of the population, the average monthly salary, and the average pension.

The third group of indicators characterizing the level of inflation includes indicators of changes in profit and profitability of production due to rising inflation.

For factor analysis of profit and profitability, the following is used:

2. Price change index for material and technical assets (purchase price index):

Ip(m) =

∑ m 1 p1

∑ m 1 p 0

3. Index of changes in the book value of fixed assets and capital investments:

I p (o ) = ∑ o 1 p 1 ∑ o 1 p 0

Practice shows that it is impossible to completely neutralize the impact of inflation on final economic indicators, but it is possible to mitigate its impact to a significant extent.

4.5. Forms and methods of inflation regulation

The main forms of stabilization of monetary circulation, depending on the state of inflation processes, are monetary reforms and anti-inflationary policies.

Currency reform is a transformation of the monetary system (full or partial) carried out by the state with the aim of streamlining and strengthening monetary circulation. Depending on the goals pursued, monetary reforms can be divided into two types:

1. Formation of a new monetary system (transition from bimetallism to monometallism, to fiat credit money, etc.);

2. Partial transformation of the monetary system (change in the order of issue, types of banknotes, name of the monetary unit).

All ongoing monetary reforms pursue the goal of stabilizing the currency.

Methods of currency stabilization: Nullification. Announcement of cancellation

the introduction of a heavily depreciated currency and the introduction of a new currency. Devaluation. Decrease in the exchange rate of the national currency compared to the foreign one. Revaluation. An increase in the exchange rate of a national currency compared to a foreign one. Shock therapy: rapid transition to a market economy; free pricing; decline in living standards; wage freeze. Denomination. The method of crossing out zeros, i.e. consolidation of the price scale.

Another form of stabilizing monetary circulation is anti-inflationary policy - a set of measures for state regulation of the economy aimed at combating inflation.

IN In the economy, two directions of anti-inflationary policy have emerged:

1. Deflationary policy– the process of containing the money supply in circulation

by reducing government spending, increasing the interest rate on loans, increasing the tax burden, increasing the required reserve ratio of commercial banks, selling government and securities, etc.

2. Income policy provides parallel price and wage controls by freezing them completely or setting limits to their growth.

Options for anti-inflationary policy directions are selected depending on their priorities. If put deterrence goal economic growth, then it is carried out deflationary policy. If the goal is to stimulate

economic growth, then income policy is preferred. When the goal is to curb inflation at any cost, both methods of anti-inflationary policy are used in parallel. Anti-inflationary policy can be long-term or short-term in duration.

Long-term policy sets the goal of extinguishing the population's inflationary expectations and includes measures to reduce the budget deficit by increasing taxes and reducing government spending, as well as measures in the field of monetary circulation (establishing a limit on the money supply) and weakening the influence of monetary factors.

Short-term policy is aimed at temporarily reducing inflation rates by: expanding aggregate supply without increasing aggregate demand (benefits to enterprises); privatization of part of its property; sales of large quantities of shares in new private enterprises; increasing interest rates on deposits and a number of other measures.

The experience of carrying out anti-inflationary measures shows the advisability of combining both policies.

1.2 Indicators of the level and dynamics of inflation

The most important for assessing inflation are various price indices that characterize price dynamics. For the most general description of the level of inflation in world practice, two indicators are used: the gross national product deflator (GDP) and the consumer price index (CPI).

In Russia, the main macroeconomic indicator is GDP, so the first indicator is called the GDP deflator (GDP). It assesses the degree of inflation of the entire set of goods produced and consumed in the state. DVVP takes into account changes in prices for goods not only consumed by the population, but also used in public interests, investments for export and import.

In Russia, DVVP is determined, as in most countries, by the Paasche aggregate formula:

where?p1q1 = GDP1 of the analyzed period;

P0q1 = GDP1 in prices of the base period.

The base period is usually the previous year.

DVVP can also be calculated indirectly:

Essentially, the DVVP is a Paasche price index and, therefore, can reflect the influence of not only changes in prices, but also changes in the structure of GDP.

As indicators of the commodity supply, one can use the volume of turnover and sales of services or GDP, and the money supply can be expressed through the monetary aggregate M2, which represents the sum of the aggregate M1 and time savings deposits. In turn, M1 = M0+ liquid deposits and deposits in other depository institutions.

Contrary to criticism, the monetarist equation of exchange is used in setting monetary policy to forecast the future rate of inflation. For example, a group of Federal Reserve economists suggests using the following equation to forecast inflation:

where M2 = M1 + checkless savings accounts + small (no more than 100 thousand dollars) time deposits; Vґ is the actual average velocity of circulation of M2 over the past 33 years; Q is the forecast value of real GDP, provided that the maximum inflationary growth rate is 2.5% per year; p is the predicted price level in the future.

Based on the DVVP, it is customary to calculate the main indicator of the inflation rate - the inflation rate:

Where It and It-1 are DVVP of adjacent periods.

It is by the magnitude of this indicator that inflation is divided into creeping, galloping and hyperinflation.

To characterize inflationary processes in the consumer market of goods and services, the consumer price index (CPI) is used. Based on the CPI, statistics calculate the purchasing power index of the monetary unit - as the value of the inverse CPI. The purchasing power index of a monetary unit shows how many times money has depreciated, i.e. characterizes inflation and can be calculated in relation to the monetary unit of the current and base periods at the federal and regional levels.

Price statistics provide monthly information on the CPI, which allows you to monitor the intensity of changes in the purchasing power of the ruble (PPP) throughout the year. In addition, the purchasing power index can be used for factor analysis of changes in real wages (WW):

Iрз. = Inz.*Ipsr.

According to experts, one of the reasons for the decline in the purchasing power of the ruble is also the foreign currencyization of Russia, which began with the introduction of market relations. A change in the ruble exchange rate is both a consequence and a stimulus of inflationary processes. On the one hand, devaluation stabilizes the national currency, and on the other hand, it can increase inflation, since the exchange rate is currently not determined on the basis of the currency period. It is formed under the influence of supply and demand on the Russian foreign exchange market and is therefore called floating

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One of the most important economic indicators affecting interest rates, exchange rates, cost and quality of life is inflation rate. Scientists and economists around the world are debating what the level of inflation should be.

It is argued that even moderate inflation causes significant damage to the state’s economy and long-term growth, as it distorts the economy and blocks the action of some of the main factors of economic growth.

First of all, inflation is unfair from a social point of view, because... is a kind of tax on those whose incomes are fixed in nominal terms or are inadequately indexed in accordance with it, and this, as a rule, is the poorest part of the population.

But not all economists think so, for example, according to the French economist Jacques Sapir, the desire to achieve zero inflation is dangerous and can slow down economic growth, and can even provoke a depression. In this case, an imbalance between supply and demand may occur. Therefore, we can conclude that the economy needs some level of inflation. An example is the well-known “Great Depression” in the USA and the last long depression in Japan. J.M. Keynes believed that inflation of 3% is optimal for regulating prices and wages, and also stimulates GDP growth and increases business activity in the country.

Researchers do not have clear answers to the question of what the inflation rate should be. But in general, one thing can undoubtedly be said: the consequences of inflation are negative.

The severity of the inflation problem is determined by several reasons:

Firstly, if we take our ruble, then when its exchange rate strengthens against the dollar and euro, the price competitiveness of our commodity producers weakens.

Secondly, inflation, as we know, manifests itself in rising prices for specific goods and services, and this in turn causes dissatisfaction on the part of buyers, especially if inflation outpaces the growth of their nominal incomes.

Thirdly, it is difficult for investors and commodity producers to work in conditions of inflation, since their working capital depreciates, and they can hardly predict the future situation. Therefore, recently, many central banks, when choosing the main goal of monetary policy, focus on limiting inflation.

Inflation indicators are price indices, reflecting price dynamics.

Main price indices:


Consumer Price Index - measures changes in the cost of goods and services and is the main indicator that characterizes the level of inflation.

However, it should be noted that the inflation index (CPI or any other) does not determine the behavior of individual consumers, producers and investors. A more important role for them is played by their own “inflationary feelings,” which are interpreted as a subjective assessment by economic agents of the inflation rate. Inflationary feelings give rise to “inflationary sentiments”, i.e. the readiness of individuals for further growth of inflation and the desire to raise prices themselves or make demands on employers to increase wages. Strictly speaking, the term “inflationary expectations” is nothing more than a projection of inflationary feelings into the future. Individuals predict future inflation rates not by the officially published CPI, but by their own perceptions.

At the same time, the individual consumer price index for a given consumer may differ significantly from the general CPI due to differences in the values ​​and structure of an individual’s expenses from the average for the economy. The overall CPI should be a weighted average of the individual indices. But at the same time, differentiation of price indices by groups of goods and services that are consumed by individuals with different income levels and different places of residence is important. Given the high differentiation of incomes of the population in Russia, even with a stable overall CPI, individual price indices for the majority of consumers may increase while prices decrease for a small group of consumers with high incomes. A similar situation may arise due to territorial differentiation in the dynamics of prices and incomes.

There is also a psychological factor in inflationary feelings and sentiments. In those countries where the market economy is not particularly developed, “Inflationary sentiment” is very important.

Individuals more quickly feel price increases for goods that affect vital interests and are purchased almost every day.

Such goods include: bakery products, meat and dairy products, vegetables, fruits, passenger transport services, and also include medicines, educational and medical services.


Inflation manifests itself, first of all, in an increase (explicit and hidden) in prices for goods and services of comparable quality. The inflation rate is characterized by the rate of increase (increase) in the price level compared to the previous period and is calculated on the basis of the consumer price index, usually as a percentage for the year.
To determine the level of inflation, it is necessary to subtract the consumer price index of the base period from the consumer price index of the current period, divide the resulting difference by the consumer price index of the base period and multiply by one hundred (as a percentage).
J = \\ pc 1 x 100
infL Jpc 0
where Jinfl is the inflation rate in percent;
Jpco and Jptl are consumer price indices in the current and base periods.
The analysis of the impact of inflation processes on economic indicators is carried out at various levels: at the macro level, sectoral and at the level of individual enterprises, and therefore they are divided into three groups.
The first group includes indicators of deflation of macroeconomic final indicators (GDP, final consumption expenditures, gross capital formation, etc.).
The problem of deflation at the macro level means determining the value of GDP over a number of years. Deflation is carried out using three methods:
The first method involves the process of deflating a value indicator expressed in current prices into prices of the previous period. The price index - the GDP deflator is calculated by dividing the value of the analyzed indicator in actual prices by its value in comparable prices. The GDP deflator index is the ratio of GDP in current prices to the volume of GDP in constant prices of the previous year. The GDP deflator index characterizes changes in wages, profits and consumption of fixed assets, and net taxes. It is calculated using the Paasche formula.
T _ Z P1 g 1
1 defl = sr ’
4 ? P 0 g 1
where Ep1g1 is GDP in current prices;
Ep0g1 - GDP of the current period in constant prices.
This revaluation is called a direct deflator.
The second method is called double deflation and is carried out at the production stage. Double deflation is carried out using two price indices and consists of separately revaluing the indicators of gross output and intermediate consumption into comparable prices (by industry).
GVA = ? g 1 Р1 ^ m 1 Р1
1(p 0) J BB J PP prices prices
where GVA(P0) is the gross value added of the current period in comparable prices;
Z §ірі - gross output at current prices;
G three - intermediate consumption at current prices;
TzenBB - price index for gross output;
TzenPP - price index for intermediate consumption.
This method is more accurate, but its calculation is complicated by the fact that there is often no data on the structure of intermediate consumption.
The third method is the method of extrapolating the basic level of gross value added using an index of physical volume of production. As a result of extrapolation of industry indicators, we obtain the level of GVA of the current period in comparable prices, and the sum of these indicators gives the volume of GVA at the country level.
In practice, deflation can also be carried out at the end-use stage by constantly revaluing the end-use elements of GDP.
The second group of indicators characterizing changes in income, consumption and living standards due to rising prices (industry level) includes indicators of consumer prices and price dynamics for consumer goods, income and expenses of the population, indicators of the purchasing power of the ruble and wages, the cost of a set of basic products food, etc.
The composite consumer price index is a general indicator of inflation. Its dynamics over time by region in comparison with other indicators is a characteristic of inflation. Here the coefficient of advance of consumer prices compared to the growth rates of other indicators is calculated.
One of the relative indicators of the level and dynamics of inflation is the ratio of the cost of a set of food products to the amount of monetary income of the population.
j = Z g 1 p 1 x 100,
inf d 1
where 1inf is the inflation rate, in%;
Z g^i - cost of a set of food products;
D is the monetary income of the population.
A clear characteristic of inflation is the purchasing power indicator, which is calculated as the ratio of the average monthly wage to the price of specific goods, determined based on data from sample budget surveys. In this group of indicators, it is possible to calculate the ratio of the subsistence level: WITH the average per capita wage income of the population, the average monthly salary, and the average pension.
The third group of indicators characterizing the level of inflation includes indicators of changes in profit and profitability of production due to rising inflation.
For factor analysis of profit and profitability, the following indices are used:
  1. Index of changes in prices for products, works and services: j = Z p 1 g 1
p (g) Z p 0 g 1
  1. Index of price changes for material and technical assets (purchasing price index):
j = Z m 1 p 1
p(m) Z m 1 p 0
  1. Index of changes in the book value of fixed assets and capital investments:
j = Z o 1 p 1
p (0) Z o 1 p 0
  1. Index of changes in wages due to inflation: j = f) : f 0
Practice shows that it is impossible to completely neutralize the impact of inflation on final economic indicators, but it is possible to mitigate its impact to a significant extent.

More on the topic Indicators characterizing the level of inflation:

  1. 8.2.2. Inflation in the context of transition to market relations
  2. 9.1. Analysis and assessment of indicators of solvency, financial stability and business activity of the organization
  3. Inflation and its manifestations in planned and transition economies

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