An empirical study of comprehensive insurance using an example. Usova E., Filatov A.Yu

Over the past three to four years, insurance has become one of the most popular financial services. The reason for this is our awareness of the numerous risks that we are exposed to in life. The insurance market is also developing: in an effort to satisfy growing customer demand, companies are offering more and more new interesting products.

Today, many of us are already familiar with various types of insurance, know about the insurance companies existing on the market, and know how to choose the necessary insurance programs. This is especially true for car owners who are at risk of not only losing or damaging their own car, but also causing harm to other road users. Transport insurance accounts for almost a third of all policyholder premiums. Therefore, his forecast of its development is of particular interest.

Rice. 1

As of March 31, 2012, 539 insurance organizations were registered in the Unified State Register of Insurance Business Entities. Of these, 379 companies or 70.3% have licenses for transport types of insurance.

In addition, the market continues to show a trend towards increasing concentration of insurance business. In the transport market as a whole, the top 5 companies collect 45% of premiums.

Rice. 2

The dynamics of insurance premiums for 2005-2012 for transport types of insurance are growing on average, and all insurance premiums excluding compulsory medical insurance are also growing. From 2008 to 2009, there was a decline in insurance premiums both vego without compulsory medical insurance and separately for transport types of insurance. Since 2009, all insurance premiums have increased from 500,000 million rubles to 800,000 million rubles. Also, since 2009, there has been an increase in insurance premiums for transport types of insurance.

3. Structure of insurance premium and insurance payments for transport types of insurance

Rice. 3

If we analyze the structure of insurance premiums for individual types of insurance, the main share of insurance premiums falls on motor transport (87%). Cargo insurance makes up 6.2% of insurance premiums, 2.3% for air insurance, 1.7% for water transport insurance, 0.6% for other types of insurance.

Rice. 4

An analysis of the structure of insurance compensation in 2012 shows that, as with insurance premiums, the main share falls on road transport (95.1%). The share of cargo insurance in payments is 1.7% of payments, for aviation insurance - 1.6%, water transport insurance - 1.3% of payments, 0.2% - other types of insurance.

4. Structure of insurance premiums and contracts by type of insurer

About 70% of insurance premiums are collected from individuals on road transport. For other types of insurance, contracts with legal entities prevail.

5. Dynamics of premiums and payments for transport types of insurance for 2005-2012. The dynamics of premiums and payments for transport types of insurance for 2005 - 2012 are presented in Figures 5 and 6.

Rice. 5

The dynamics of insurance premiums for 2005-2012 shows that insurance and compulsory motor liability insurance were growing despite the economic crisis, and for motor insurance premiums there was first a sharp drop in premiums in 2009, and then in the last two years premiums grew and almost reached the level of pre-crisis figures.

Rice. 6

Among other types of insurance, positive dynamics are observed in cargo insurance. In water transport (to a lesser extent) and in air transport, with fairly stable dynamics on average, premium volumes have decreased slightly over the past year.

6. Analysis of loss ratio by type of transport insurance

Table 1

Analysis of loss ratio by type of transport insurance

Insurance type
Motor hull insurance


Cargo insurance
Aviation risks insurance (property + liability)
Water transport insurance (property + liability)
Other types of insurance
Transport types of insurance

In general, for transport types of insurance, the loss ratio decreased from 63.1% to 55.4%.

The highest loss ratio for motor hull insurance is 64.3%. Compared to 2011, the loss ratio for motor insurance has not changed.

7. Share of transport insurance in GDP. The share of transport insurance in GDP is presented in Table 2

table 2

Share of transport insurance in GDP

Insurance for everything	Insurance without compulsory medical insurance	Transport insurance

In 2012, insurance premium collections amounted to 2.5% of GDP. Without compulsory medical insurance, the share of insurance in GDP is much smaller and amounts to 1.3%. The share of transport insurance in GDP is even lower and amounted to 0.7% in 2012.

8. Characteristics of the real and schematic transport insurance market

The market continues to clear itself of “schemes”. In 2011, the share of “schemes” in the Russian insurance industry was slightly less than 8%.

At the same time, cargo insurance continues to be the most “scheme” type of transport insurance in terms of the percentage of real and non-classical operations, as well as in terms of the volume of the “scheme” premium.

9. Leading companies in transport types of insurance.

Leading companies in transport types of insurance are presented in Table 3.

Table 3

Leading companies in transport types of insurance

Insurance type
ground transport insurance	Rosgosstrakh, "Ingosstrakh"	Ingosstrakh Group	Ingosstrakh Group
	Rosgosstrakh Group	Ingosstrakh Group	Ingosstrakh Group
	Rosgosstrakh Group	Rosgosstrakh Group	Rosgosstrakh Group
water transport insurance	Ingosstrakh Group	Ingosstrakh Group	SOGAZ Group
air transport insurance	SOGAZ Group	Ingosstrakh Group	Ingosstrakh Group
space risk insurance	Russian Insurance Center	SOGAZ Group	SOGAZ Group
cargo insurance	SOGAZ Group	Ingosstrakh Group	SOGAZ Group
CO carriers	Ingosstrakh Group	Ingosstrakh Group	Ingosstrakh Group

Among the leading companies based on the results of the first half of 2013 are such companies as the Ingosstrakh Group (motor hull insurance, DSAGO, air transport insurance and cargo carrier liability insurance), the Rosgosstrakh Group (OSAGO), the SOGAZ Group (water transport insurance, space risks insurance, insurance cargo).

10. The impact of Russia’s accession to the WTO on transport types of insurance

In all likelihood, Russia's accession to the WTO will have little effect on the transport insurance market. Basically, foreign insurers are focused on the life insurance market. Although some companies, the share of foreign participation in the authorized capital of which is 100%, are quite active in the transport insurance market. These are companies such as ROSNO, ZURICH, ORANTA, ALLIANCE, ERGO RUS.

480 rub. | 150 UAH | $7.5 ", MOUSEOFF, FGCOLOR, "#FFFFCC",BGCOLOR, "#393939");" onMouseOut="return nd();"> Dissertation - 480 RUR, delivery 10 minutes, around the clock, seven days a week and holidays

Yarkova Olga Nikolaevna. Models and methods for assessing the solvency of an insurance company, taking into account investment and reinsurance (using the example of CASCO): dissertation... Candidate of Economic Sciences: 08.00.13 / Olga Nikolaevna Yarkova; [Place of defense: GOUVPO "Samara State Aerospace University"]. - Samara, 2010. - 183 p.: ill.

Introduction

Chapter 1 Risk models in insurance and methods for increasing the solvency of insurance companies 8

1.1 Risks in insurance 8

1.2 Methods for assessing solvency 16

1.3 Models for assessing solvency and approaches to improve it.29

Chapter 2 Study of the influence of risk process characteristics and assets on the probability of non-ruin 38

2.1 Study of the dependence of the probability of non-ruin on the initial capital 38

2.2 Study of the influence of asset characteristics on the solvency of an insurance company 51

2.3 Analysis of the influence of initial capital on the strategy of investing in risky or risk-free assets 57

Chapter 3 Formation of investment and reinsurance strategy 66

3.1 Analysis of the impact of diversification of investments in risky and risk-free assets on solvency 66

3.2 Formation of an investment strategy 75

3.3 The impact of reinsurance on solvency 82

Conclusion 96

List of sources used 98

Applications 106

Introduction to the work

Relevance of the research topic. Increasing competition, evidenced by a decrease in the share of leading insurance companies in the total volume of collected premiums (according to the Expert RA Rating Agency), and an increase in risks caused by the global financial crisis, give rise to high demands for an objective assessment of not only the solvency of insurance companies, under which Let us understand the positivity of the risk process, but also the tools that influence it. One of the tools to influence solvency is the equity capital of the insurance company, which can be increased through investment. The influence of equity capital on such a characteristic of solvency as the probability of non-ruin is devoted to the works of foreign and domestic authors F. Lundberg, G. Grandell, F. de Vilder, T. Anderson, X. Kramer, G.Sh. Tsitsiashvili. K. Segerdahl, J. Paulsen and H. Ggessing studied the dependence of solvency on the initial capital of an insurance company, taking into account the investment of available funds in risk-free assets. In the works of S. Brown, A.V. Melnikov and S. Asmussen analyzed the influence of initial capital on the probability of non-ruin of an insurance company, taking into account the investment of available funds in risky assets.

Another option to increase the probability of non-ruin is reinsurance. In the works of H. Schmidli and K. Hipp, an estimate was obtained of the dependence of the probability of failure of an insurance company on the initial capital, taking into account reinsurance and investment in risky assets, but with strict assumptions about the nature of the distribution of payments and large values of the initial capital.

Thus, it can be stated that the works of domestic and foreign authors do not pay attention to the issues of modeling the dependence of the probability of non-ruin of insurance companies on such characteristics of the risk process and assets as the relative risk premium, the profitability of risky and risk-free assets, the volatility of prices of a risky asset, the share of investment in risky (risk-free) assets, the volume of own retention during reinsurance, etc. The scientific and practical significance and insufficient development of these issues of assessing the solvency of insurance organizations determined the choice of topic and structure of the study.

The purpose of the study is to improve methods for assessing the probability of non-ruin in the conditions of investment and reinsurance when solving the problem of increasing the solvency of an insurance company.

To achieve this goal, the following tasks were set and solved:

analysis of existing methods and models for assessing the solvency of insurance companies;

Modeling the relationship between the probability of non-ruin and the characteristics of the risk process, assets, the volume of investment and reinsurance;

Development of a methodology for forming investment strategies

In risk-free assets;

In risky assets;

In risky and risk-free assets;

Development of a methodology for forming reinsurance strategies in various investment conditions.

The object of the study is the probability of non-ruin, as a characteristic of the solvency of the insurance company.

The subject of the study is methods and models for assessing the probability of failure of an insurance company. Area of study - 1.6. Mathematical analysis and modeling of processes in the financial sector of the economy, development of the method of financial mathematics and actuarial calculations.

Theoretical and methodological basis of the research The works of domestic and foreign authors on insurance and actuarial mathematics, probability theory, random processes, mathematical statistics, and numerical analysis were used as the theoretical basis of the dissertation work. Numerical modeling was implemented using the Delphi 7.0 software development environment.

Data from the insurance company RESO-Garantia were used as the information base for the study.

The scientific novelty lies in the modeling of the dependence of the probability of non-ruin on the characteristics of the risk process, risky and risk-free assets, which makes it possible to formulate investment and reinsurance strategies to increase the solvency of the insurance company.

The most significant scientific results:

a procedure for mathematical modeling of the relationships between the probability of non-ruin and the relative risk premium, the relative risk premium and initial capital, the probability of non-ruin and the profitability of risky and risk-free assets, the probability of non-ruin and the volatility of prices of a risky asset, etc., which allows us to quantify the impact of the characteristics of the risk process and assets on the solvency characteristics of the insurance company;

A methodology has been developed for developing investment strategies in risky and/or risk-free assets based on constructed models characterizing the relationship between the probability of non-ruin and the volume of investment; the volume of investment and initial capital, the use of which makes it possible to increase the solvency of the insurance company;

A methodology has been proposed for the formation of reinsurance strategies in various investment conditions based on constructed models that describe the dependencies between solvency characteristics and the volume of own retention, the implementation of which makes it possible to increase the likelihood of the insurance company not going bankrupt.

Practical significance The results of the study were accepted for implementation in the insurance company RESO-Garantiya (Orenburg branch) and are used when considering issues related to ensuring a high level of non-ruin. The theoretical and practical results obtained during the study are used in the course of the academic discipline “Insurance and Actuarial Calculations”.

Approbation of the work The main theoretical and practical provisions of the dissertation work were reported and discussed at conferences:

All-Russian scientific and practical conference “Interaction of the real and financial sectors in a transformational economy” (Orenburg, State Educational Institution OSU, 2008);

All-Russian Scientific and Practical Conference “Financial and Actuarial Mathematics” (Neftekamsk, NFBash State University, 2009);

All-Russian scientific and practical conference "Multidisciplinary University as a regional center of education and science" (Orenburg, State Educational Institution OSU, 2009).

Structure and scope of work The dissertation consists of an introduction, three chapters, a conclusion, a list of references and appendices. The appendices contain information and reference materials that illustrate and complement the main content of the study. The dissertation is presented on 212 pages of typewritten text, contains 84 tables and 56 figures. The list of references includes 93 titles of works by domestic and foreign authors. The applications are presented on 107 pages.

The first chapter, “Risk models in insurance and methods for increasing the solvency of insurance companies,” reveals the economic essence of insurance as one of the risk management methods, describes models and methods for assessing the probability of non-ruin, and considers approaches to increasing the solvency of an insurance company.

In the second chapter, “Study of the influence of the characteristics of the risk process and assets on the probability of non-ruin,” the dependence of the probability of non-ruin of an insurance company on the initial capital in the Poisson model of collective risk is constructed, taking into account investment in either risky or risk-free assets. A procedure for modeling the relationships between the probability of non-ruin and the relative risk premium, the relative risk premium and initial capital, the probability of non-ruin and the return on risky and risk-free assets, the probability of non-ruin and the volatility of the prices of a risky asset is proposed and implemented. A methodology has been developed for developing an investment strategy in risky or risk-free assets.

In the third chapter, “Formation of investment and reinsurance strategies,” the dependence of the probability of non-ruin on the initial capital in terms of investing in risky and risk-free assets is constructed. Modeling of the relationship between the probability of non-ruin and the volume of investment in risky and risk-free assets was carried out; volume of investment and initial capital of the insurance company. A methodology for forming reinsurance strategies in various investment conditions is proposed.

Models for assessing solvency and approaches to increasing it

To implement its main function - making payments upon the occurrence of insured events - the insurance company must have special monetary resources that determine its capital. The capital (reserve) of an insurance organization consists of two main parts - own capital and attracted capital, and the attracted part of the capital largely prevails over its own. This is due to the industry specifics of insurance. The activities of an insurance company are based on the creation of funds, the source of which is the funds of policyholders received in the form of insurance contributions (premiums). They do not belong to the insurer. These funds are only temporarily, for the period of validity of the insurance contracts, at the disposal of the insurance company, after which they are used to pay the insured amount or are converted into an income base (subject to the break-even completion of the contract), or are returned to the policyholders in the part provided for by the terms of the contract (bonus). Thus, the capital of the insurance company Y, at time t is equal to S(t) - the amount of payments made by the insurance company at time /; n(t) - premiums collected by time t. Process (1.1) is also called the risk process of the insurance company.

The formation and use of capital is one of the main aspects of the activities of insurance organizations, aimed at ensuring solvency. An additional source of profit for the insurer, in addition to profit from insurance operations, is investment income. Profitable investment activity allows the insurer to reduce the tariff, which is of interest to both insurers and policyholders. Not only the insurer’s income, but also its solvency depends on the efficiency and reliability of the placement of temporarily available funds. Thus, until 2005, the average return on investment of insurance companies lagged behind the rate of inflation and there was an increase in the number of insolvent insurers. In 2006, as of January 1, 2007, 14% of the total number of registered insurers had their license revoked. The inclusion of Russia in global integration processes forces insurance companies to approach the conditions of world standards, and the increase in financial risks in a crisis and increasing competition, as evidenced by data from the Expert RA agency, give rise to high demands for an objective assessment of the solvency of insurance companies.

A number of indicators are used to study the solvency of insurance companies. Some of these indicators are normative in nature and are established and controlled by government bodies, others are advisory. In Russia, the following indicators are used: minimum level of authorized capital; regulatory solvency margin; the amount of required insurance reserves; standards for investment activities, etc. All these indicators reflect only certain aspects of the activities of insurance companies and are not quantitative characteristics of the company's solvency. In the works, as a measure of the solvency of the insurance company, the probability of non-ruin p(ii) = P\Yl 0), or the probability of ruin y/(u) = l-P(Yt 0), is used as a characteristic of the opposite event, which are a measure of the risk of the functioning of the insurance company characterizing the solvency properties of the company as a whole or individual portfolios of contracts. The concept of "ruin" means the excess of payments over receipts and reserves. However, a deficit of the latter does not mean bankruptcy of the insurance company, since the company can use other sources of repayment of the deficit, for example, a loan. In risk theory, ruin (falling assets to zero) should be understood as some indicator signaling financial trouble. Sometimes ruin is understood as a reduction in capital to a certain positive minimum - the minimum regulatory level (if the capital is less than the regulatory level, the activities of the insurer are suspended by regulatory authorities). This approach is typical for EU countries. That is, the probability of ruin (or the probability of non-ruin) is a deterministic characteristic of solvency.

We will be interested in the dependence of the probability of ruin on the initial capital, relative risk premium, etc. Calculating the probability of ruin involves building models of individual or collective risk for the company as a whole or for individual portfolios of contracts. An individual risk model is characterized by the fact that all insured objects have the same characteristics, such as the probability of an insured event, the distribution of a possible insured loss, the terms and conditions of insurance. The insurance company compensates for damage only from funds received as insurance premiums. The individual risk model assumes that losses for each risk unit are independent and equally distributed. This assumption can be made in the case when insured losses for each insurance object are caused by different, unrelated reasons. This is a natural requirement in life insurance, however, it is not typical for other types of insurance. The information content of such a model is low, since factors that can simultaneously influence many risks in a group are not taken into account. In addition, the individual risk model is a static model of insurance risk, where the risk is modeled by only one random variable, namely the total insured loss for a group of risks, and static models provide a limited understanding of risk. Modification of the individual risk model is recommended by Rosstrakhnadzor when calculating tariff rates for risky types of insurance, due to the fact that it is the only analysis tool if statistical data is presented in aggregate form. The collective risk model most fully reflects real phenomena in insurance. With its help, you can achieve greater dynamics when managing the company's risk.

Study of the influence of asset characteristics on the solvency of an insurance company

In our example, an insurance company investing all available funds in a risk-free asset with a profitability of 0.13, with R = 3.82 claims/day, 0 = 60% and = 65%, to achieve a probability of non-ruin of 0.95, it is necessary to have an initial capital of 320 thousand rubles. and transfer 20% of risks to reinsurance. Similar calculations can be carried out for other model parameters.

The dependencies between the probability of non-ruin of the insurance company and the volume of own retention, calculated similarly, in the case of investing 50% of available funds in risky assets with a yield of 0.4 and price volatility of 0.25 and 50% of available funds in risk-free assets with a yield of 0.13, are presented in Table I. 14 of the Appendix And (family of solutions to problem (3.15) in tables Zh.30-Zh.32 of appendix G, interpolation splines in table K.20 of appendix K). Dependency graphs constructed for various values of the relative risk premium of the reinsurer a) = 65%; b) = 75%; c) , = 85% are presented in Figure 3.15, and the RMNC approximations are given below:

For the given characteristics of the risk process, an insurance company with an initial capital of 350 thousand rubles. and investment strategies in risky (// = 0.4, st = 0.25) and risk-free (r = 0.13) assets (0.5, 0.5), respectively, to achieve a probability of non-ruin of 0.95, it is necessary to reinsure 7.5% of risks if the relative risk premium of the assignor is 60%, and relative risk premium of the reinsurer is 85%), or 5% of risks if the relative risk premium of the reinsurer is 65%. The relationships between the initial capital of the insurance company and the volume of own retention are calculated similarly for p = 0.95, in the case of investing 50%) of available funds in risky assets with a yield of 0.4 and price volatility of 0.25 and 50% of available funds in risk-free assets with a yield of 0.13. Graphs of calculated values (Table I. 15) and interpolation splines for given parameters of the risk process (/3 = 0.5, r = 0.13, a = 0.5, // = 0.4, sr = 0.25, R = 3.82 claims/day, 0 = 60%, and =350 thousand rubles), (Appendix K, table K.21) are shown in Figure 3.16. own deduction, p = 0.5, r = 0.13, a = 0.5, /l = 0.4, a = 0.25, A = 3.82 claims/day, b = 60%, p = 0.95, for a) = 65%; b) = 75%; c) = 85%. Such dependencies will allow the insurance company to formulate a reinsurance strategy taking into account the characteristics of the assets. For example, to ensure a probability of non-ruin of 0.95 for an insurance company with an initial capital of 320 thousand rubles. it is necessary to invest 50% of available funds in risky assets with a yield of 0.4 and price volatility of 0.25, 50% of available funds in risk-free assets with a yield of 0.13 and give 15% of risks for reinsurance if the relative risk premium of the reinsurer is 0.65. Thus, we have quantitatively assessed the impact on the probability of not ruining the characteristics of assets, the volume of investment in risky and risk-free assets, which will allow us to formulate a strategy for investing in risky and risk-free assets depending on the size of the initial capital. In addition, a methodology for forming a reinsurance strategy in various investment conditions is proposed and demonstrated using the example of CASCO. All calculations presented in the work were obtained numerically using the automated software package “Analysis of the Solvency of an Insurance Company” (Appendix L). Conclusion The analysis of models and methods for assessing the solvency of an insurance company allowed us to conclude that there has been no research into the quantitative assessment of the impact on the probability of non-ruin of such characteristics as the relative risk premium, the profitability of risky and risk-free assets, the volatility of prices of a risky asset, the share of investment in risky and risk-free assets, the volume of own reinsurance retentions. The work proposes and implements a procedure for modeling the relationships between the characteristics of the solvency of an insurance company and the characteristics of the risk process, assets, volume of investment and reinsurance, allowing: - to quantify the size of the relative risk premium that provides a given probability of non-ruin with a fixed initial capital in various investment conditions; - quantify the size of the relative risk premium depending on the size of the initial capital, guaranteeing a fixed level of probability of non-ruin in various investment conditions; - quantitatively assess the impact of the profitability of a risk-free asset, the profitability of a risky asset, the volatility of prices of a risky asset on the probability of non-ruin of the insurance company. A methodology for developing investment strategies in risky assets has been developed and implemented; into risk-free assets; into risky and risk-free assets that provide the required level of probability of non-ruin, depending on the relationship between the characteristics of the assets and the characteristics of the risk process.

Analysis of the influence of initial capital on the strategy of investing in risky or risk-free assets

There are three main ways to influence risk - reduction, preservation and transfer. Risk reduction refers to a reduction in either the amount of possible damage or the likelihood of adverse events occurring. The preservation group includes self-insurance, i.e. creation of special reserve funds (self-insurance funds or risk fund) from which compensation for losses will be made in the event of unfavorable situations. Risk transfer means transferring responsibility for the risk to third parties, while maintaining the level of risk. This group includes insurance, which involves transferring risk to an insurance company for a fee, as well as various types of guarantees, financial guarantees, etc.

Let us define insurance as “a set of social relations associated with the formation of an insurance fund through contributions made by participants in its creation, with its centralization in organizations carrying out insurance operations and with its use to cover damage or make other payments to persons in respect of whom insurance is carried out.” , in the event of the occurrence of predetermined random events.” An insurance contract is called a policy. If the policy has been tendered for payment, the insurer is said to have received the claim; If the insurance situation does not arise, the policyholder loses the premium. The insurance company has numerous obligations and rights under the insurance contract. The insurer's responsibilities are divided into obligations to bear the risk and to pay insurance compensation (sum insured).

Thus, studies of the solvency of insurance companies, which take into account investments in risky and risk-free assets, are characterized by both assumptions about the nature of the distribution of payment amounts and the lack of research into the influence on the solvency of such asset characteristics as the profitability of a risky and risk-free asset and the volatility of prices of a risky asset.

If the investment activities and financial capabilities of the insurer do not allow achieving the desired level of solvency, insurance companies resort to risk redistribution. Reinsurance is an important link in ensuring the solvency of the insurer. The need for reinsurance is due to the fact that: 1) small insurance companies do not have enough of their own funds to ensure a high level of non-ruin; 2) insurance companies do not always have the opportunity to create a perfectly balanced portfolio, due to the small number of insurance objects or the presence of large risks in the portfolio; 3) even with a careful selection of risks accepted for insurance, the insurer cannot create a portfolio of insurance objects that are completely independent from each other, since insurance compensates for losses arising from various types of dangers to which the insured objects may be exposed simultaneously during the occurrence of catastrophes; 4) economic development and scientific and technological progress lead to a high concentration of material assets and, as a consequence, to an increase in insurance amounts for a large number of insurance objects (the cost of transported goods increases, the cost of aircraft, ships, etc. increases). Insurance companies cannot accept such large risks for insurance without having reinsurance coverage. In some cases, insurance costs are so high (or dangerous) that the reserves of individual insurance companies are insufficient to provide full coverage. Reinsurance agreement is an agreement under which one party (the assignor) transfers the insurance risk (group of risks) in full or in part to the other party - the reinsurer. The insurer transferring the risk is called the assignor. The reinsurer undertakes to compensate the cedant for the corresponding part of the insurance compensation. Reinsurance ensures secondary redistribution of risk, thereby contributing to the quantitative and qualitative equalization of the insurance portfolio, which, in turn, makes it possible to accept unique and expensive risks for insurance. Let's consider a special case of reinsurance - proportional, in which the reinsurer's payments depend on the insurance payments for each claim, i.e. One of the ways to determine the optimal, from the insurer's point of view, volumes of reinsurance is based on making a decision based on a compromise between expected income and security. The reinsurer, when accepting the risk, charges a premium from the cedant. The rate of receipt of reinsurer's premiums is related to the relative risk premium by the ratio: where is the relative risk premium of the reinsurer. Then, the rate of receipt of premiums received by the assignor after reinsurance can be written as follows: In the works, it is proposed to use the Lundberg coefficient as an indicator of the reliability of the insurance company. If reinsurance premiums are paid continuously, with intensity c"er, then the Lundberg coefficient Rh for a direct insurer that has entered into a proportional reinsurance agreement is the smallest positive root of the equation. Based on equation (1.39), it is proposed to build a dependence of the Lundberg coefficient, reflecting the level of reliability of the insurance company, on the volume risk transferred to reinsurance. Preference is given to such a volume of risk that will provide the insurance company with the maximum value of Rh and the greatest income for the assignor. In the works of H. Schmidli and Z. Hipp, an assessment of the probability of ruin, taking into account investment and reinsurance, is sought as a solution to the Cauchy problem below: Based on (1.41), it is possible to determine the behavior strategy of the insurance company, providing the optimal combination of income and the probability of ruin.As in the case of using formula (1.10) to estimate the probability of ruin, the described methods can be applied only in the case when the distribution of payment amounts is a distribution with a light tail. Models (1.39), (1.41) provide exact solutions only in cases with distributions of payout sizes close to exponential.

Analysis of the impact of diversification of investments in risky and risk-free assets on solvency

Graphs of the dependence of the probability of non-ruin on the initial capital for the cases: a) without investment; b) with investment in risk-free assets g-0.13; c) with investment in risky assets /l = 0.4, a - 0.25, with e thousand rubles,

I - 3.82 ISK/day, s = 196.5 thousand rubles/day, I = 0.1 thousand rubles. Thus, we have the opportunity to formulate an investment strategy, depending on the size of the initial capital, with fixed parameters of the risk process, providing a higher level of probability of non-ruin. So, for example, investing in risky assets (// = 0.4; a = 0.25) allows you to achieve a probability of non-ruin of 0.95 with an initial capital value of 386.4 thousand rubles, when investing in risk-free assets (r = 0.13) a probability of not ruining 0.95 is achieved with an initial capital value of capital is 391.8 thousand rubles, and in the absence of investment, 447.3 thousand rubles are required. In the above case, with initial capital values less than 444 thousand rubles. a higher probability of non-ruin is provided by risky assets, with values of initial capital of more than 444 thousand rubles - risk-free.

In addition to the problem of estimating the dependence of the probability of non-ruin on the initial capital for fixed values of the parameters of the collective risk model, it is of interest to estimate the dependence of the relative risk premium that provides a given level of probability of non-ruin on the size of the initial capital. Given the ratio

Problem (2.6) was solved numerically for various values in (Appendix G, Table G.2 - G.4), and from the numerical solution of the equations (p(u 19) = p, where cp is the given level of probability of non-ruin, we obtained the values of the initial capital and, which are presented in Appendix I (Table IL) for av = 0.95. The dependencies presented in Figure 2.4 were approximated by 3rd order splines (Appendix K, Table K.1). For clarity, we approximated them with generalized polynomials according to the system functions (n/SO)1",/ = 0.1..5 using the recurrent least squares method. In the illustrated case (R = 3.82 isks/day, Ф = 0.95) the approximations take the form: Figure 2.4 - Relationships between the relative risk premium and initial capital for cases: a) without investment, b) with investment in risk-free assets with a return of 0.13, c) with investment in risky assets /l = 0L, a = 0.25, with R = 3.82 claims/day, (p = 0.95 Such dependencies make it possible to determine the value of the relative risk premium, which will provide a given level of probability of non-ruin, depending on the size of the initial capital. So, for example: an insurance company with an initial capital of 400 thousand rubles. to ensure a probability of non-ruin of 0.95, it is necessary to set a relative risk premium of 71% in the absence of investment. Investing in risk-free assets with a return of 0.13 allows you to reduce the risk premium to 57.5%, with the same probability of non-ruin. Investing in risky assets with a return of 0.4 and a volatility of 0.25 allows you to reduce the relative risk premium to 55.5%. Let's assume that the insurance company has initial capital and wants to increase the probability of non-ruin due to the relative risk premium. For various values of β, using the family of solutions to problem (2.6), we found p(i/β) (Appendix G, table G.2 - G.4) and plotted the dependence of the probability of non-ruin on the relative risk premium for a fixed value of the initial capital. Dependence of the probability of non-ruin on the relative risk premium for a fixed amount of initial capital and =350 thousand rubles. under various investment conditions are presented in Table I.2 (Appendix I; in the form of 3rd order splines in Appendix K, Table K.2). Approximations of the dependence of the probability of non-ruin on the relative risk premium, constructed for the given parameters of the risk process (R = 3.82 claims/day, m = 350 thousand rubles) using the recurrent least squares method, are presented below (2. 8), and the corresponding graphs in Figure 2.5.

Usova E.Yu., Filatov A.Yu. Irkutsk State University Empirical study of compulsory motor liability insurance using the example of the insurance company "RESO-Garantia"

Insurance in Russia and other countries Insurance is a relationship to protect the property interests of individuals and legal entities in the event of insured events at the expense of funds generated from insurance premiums. The share of insurance premiums in GDP Russia is 2.5%, USA – 9%, France – 11%, UK – 16%. Insurance premium per capita Russia – $250, USA, France – $4 thousand, Great Britain – $6.5 thousand. The volume of the insurance market is ~ 1 trillion rubles. Growth rate is greater than GDP; in 2009 the fall (even excluding compulsory medical insurance) is less than that of GDP.

Insurance premiums and payments by type of insurance in 2008 Indicator name Insurance premiums Insurance payments Share of payments in premiums billion rubles % % Voluntary insurance Life insurance 194.0263.070.32 Personal insurance 10823.176131.520.56 Property insurance 31667.030.40 Liability insurance234.8631.380.13 Total: .42 Compulsory motor liability insurance8016.594811.130.60 Compulsory medical insurance 39481.420.95 Other81.5861.450.75 Total: .89

Insurance rates for compulsory motor liability insurance Increasing and decreasing coefficients: 1. Features of the territory where vehicles are used. 2.Nature of use of the car 3.Power of the vehicle. 4.Presence or absence of insurance payments in previous periods. 5.Driving experience and age of car users. 6. Period of seasonal use of the car. Basic rates are differentiated depending on the technical characteristics and design features of vehicles, which affect the likelihood of causing harm when using the vehicle, as well as the potential extent of this harm. On March 25, 2009, new tariffs for compulsory motor liability insurance were introduced! Analysis of tariff adjustments based on statistics on 20 thousand contracts of IC "RESO-Garantia", concluded in 2007 (all payments were made).

Basic tariffs for various types of vehicles Type of vehicle Current tariffs, rub. Estimated tariffs, rub. Profit at the current tariff Trailers for cars 39513.782767.20% Trailers for trucks 810225.36259.43% Tractors 89267.20% Buses, trolleybuses 2632.87% Passenger cars (individuals) 6629.44% Passenger cars (legal entities) ,33–1.10% Taxi, 69–67.25% Trucks (up to 16 tons) ,52–17.13% Trucks (over 16 tons) ,03121.01% 1. Taxi – the rate is significantly reduced, insurance company losses, unwillingness to insure. 2. Trailers for passenger cars (432 contracts) – the rate is too high, compulsory insurance has been cancelled.

Engine power factor By individual group Based on regression Power. engine, hp Calculation. net premium Coef. to Coef. with Calc. coefficient Actual/calc. to Actual/calc. with Calc. coefficient Actual/calc. to Actual/calc. c.731.71.60.9970.99%60.93% 1.4219.78%12.74% 1. Cars with low engine power (high share of domestic ones) – the coefficient is underestimated. 2.Powerful cars – overpriced. 3. The discrepancy between the current and calculated coefficients has decreased.

Age and experience coefficient Age and experience of the driver Frequency of fear. cases Calc. coefficient Coef. to Coef. with Actual/calc. to Actual/calc. with no restrictions 0.07632.041.51.7–26.55%–16.76% up to 22 years with experience up to 3 years 0.06741.801.31.7–27.92%–5.75% up to 22 years with over 3 years of experience0.03891.041.21.315.27%24.88% of 22 years with up to 3 years of experience0.07231.931.151.5–40.56%–22.47% of 22 years with over 3 years of experience0 , Simplification: we believe that the size of the average insurance payment does not depend on the age and length of service of the driver (only the frequency is important). This is acceptable, unlike base rates, engine power factors and territory. 1. Of experience and age, experience is a significant component. 2. Inexperienced drivers - the coefficient is underestimated (despite the increase). 3.No restrictions - the coefficient is underestimated (despite the increase). 4. Experienced young drivers – the coefficient is overestimated (the discrepancy has even increased slightly). 5.Gender influences loss ratio more strongly than age. The indicators are interconnected.

Bonus-malus coefficient Coefficient. bonus-malus Insurance premium Insurance premium without coefficient. Insurance payments Share of payments in premium Share taking into account regression Calculation. coefficient 0.42010.38820.48 0.44820.49400.61 0.58280.59970.74 0.74870.70550.79870, The company is most profitable to work with clients who have not been involved in an accident in previous years and who have a reduction factor . 2. There is a reserve for reducing the bonus-malus coefficient for these categories of drivers.

Construction of a theoretical law for the distribution of payments Lognorm.distribution. Exponential distribution Gamma distribution Fear. payments, thousand rubles Number of fear. cases Share of fear. cases Theor. probable Critical calculation Pearson Theoret. probable Critical calculation Pearson Theoret. probable Critical calculation Pearson 0– .3250.2210.049 0.3590.003 0.3370.000 10– .2970.4030.028 0.2300.020 0.2420.013 20– .1520.2050.013 0.1480.000 0.1570.000 30– .0650.0900.007 0.0950.009 0.0990.012 40– .0520.0410.003 0.0610.001 0.0620.002 50–6036 0.0400.0190, 022 0.0390.000 0.0390.000 60–7017 0.0190.0100.009 0.0250.002 0.0240.001 70–8015 0.0170.0050.027 0.0160.000 0.0150, 000 80–908 0.0090.0030.014 0.0100.000 0.0090.000 90– .0140.0020.109 0.0070.009 0.0060, –1106 0.0070.0010.038 0.0040 .001 0.0040, –1203 0.0030.0010.015 0.0030.000 0.0020, =0.333 =0.046 =0.045

Application of the theoretical law of distribution of payments Finding the probability of payments of an arbitrary given size: 1. Calculation of the tariff for DSAGO (extension of the liability limit to 420 thousand rubles). Taking into account the load of 20%, the calculated premium for the gamma distribution is ~ 90 rubles. 2. Calculation of correction factors for the franchise (exemption of insurance companies from compensation for losses not exceeding a specified amount). Franchise, ruble Discount, %1,987,3014,6723,06 3. Formation of insurance tariffs for voluntary types of insurance, in particular, for CASCO.

Pros and cons of the state setting of tariffs for compulsory motor liability insurance Pros: 1. Unification of insurance conditions and simplification of the policyholder's decision when choosing an insurance company. 2. The impossibility of dumping on the part of insurance companies in order to attract clients and subsequent failure to fulfill obligations. Disadvantages: 1. Possible discrepancy between insurance rates and economic realities and a wide range of unprofitability. 2. Slow response of tariff rates to changes in market conditions. 3. Insufficient differentiation of risks and poor consideration of the peculiarities of local insurance markets in tariffs. 4. The inability of the insurance company to attract less unprofitable clients on special terms.

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Course work

Development of CASCO insurance in conditions of fierce competition

Completed by: MSU student

Specialty: Finance and credit

Krotova Anastasia Viktorovna

Scientific adviser:

Kudryavtseva Olga Arkadyevna

Introduction

Conclusion

Bibliography

Introduction

Auto insurance is the insurance of the vehicle itself. The insurance company, based on the contract, undertakes to compensate the client (the policyholder) for losses within the insured amount that may arise as a result of damage, complete destruction or loss of the insured vehicle as a whole or its individual parts. This can happen due to an accident (collision, run-over, rollover, fall), fire, natural disaster, theft, and so on. As a rule, the insurer enters into insurance contracts with the owners of vehicles, with those who drive by proxy, and with lessees. Can any car be insured? Some insurance companies insure cars that are younger than 92; others do not accept for insurance vehicles that have been in use for 6 years, however, with the exception of cases where the vehicle has been significantly updated. Insurance programs, in addition to payments in the event of an accident, also provide for car repairs on the accounts of service stations with which insurers have contracts, and where the insurance company recommends applying, although the client always has the right to choose. At these service stations, policyholders are provided with certain benefits - car repairs without waiting in line, some discounts. As for the annual insurance premium, it depends on what class of car you are insuring, domestic or imported, what year of manufacture, what is your driving experience, how many people are allowed to drive, etc. On average, it is 3-9% for a domestic car, for a foreign car - 6-12% of the insured amount with a minimum deductible. For premium cars and sports cars, the insurance premium is higher because they are considered high-risk cars.

According to the rules of the road, a vehicle is a device designed to transport on roads people, goods or equipment installed on it.

In accordance with the law, insurers are legal entities of any organizational and legal form provided for by the legislation of the Russian Federation, created to carry out insurance activities and who have received a license to carry out insurance activities in the prescribed manner. Legislative acts may establish restrictions on the creation of insurance organizations by foreign legal entities and foreign citizens on the territory of the Russian Federation. In addition, insurers cannot directly engage in production, trade, intermediary and banking activities.

Policyholders may be legal entities and capable individuals who have entered into insurance contracts with insurers or are policyholders by force of law. They have the right to conclude insurance contracts with third parties and appoint beneficiaries to receive insurance payments, as well as replace them at their discretion before the occurrence of an insured event.

Under the CASCO program, motor vehicles in good condition that belong to the policyholder by right of ownership, full economic management or operational management, registered or subject to registration by the State Traffic Inspectorate of the Russian Federation are accepted for insurance.

Insurance companies have the right to introduce their own rules in this regard. Thus, in the rules of voluntary insurance of vehicles of some insurance companies, vehicles registered by the traffic police and have passed state technical inspection are accepted for insurance, but unregistered vehicles for which transit registration plates have been issued, as well as vehicles purchased from trade organizations of the Russian Federation or have undergone customs clearance in respect of which the registration period, 5 days, has not expired on the date of conclusion of the contract.

Additional equipment and accessories of a motor vehicle may be accepted for insurance: car television and radio equipment, interior equipment, lighting, signaling and other additional devices installed on a motor vehicle that meet the requirements of relevant standards, technical operation rules, manufacturer's instructions, registration documents and other regulatory and technical documentation, but not included in the factory package. In accordance with the rules of most insurance organizations, equipment installed on a vehicle is recognized as its component if the policyholder has indicated the brand, name, quantity and cost of this equipment. A specific insurance contract may provide for the insurer's liability for all insurance risks or for any combination thereof. It may also additionally include civil liability insurance or personal insurance for the driver and passengers in case of a traffic accident.

In order to protect themselves from compensation for damage caused as a result of the illegal activities of the policyholder, insurance companies have introduced a number of restrictions and exceptions to the payment of insurance compensation. Thus, losses are not compensated if it is proven that:

· the events that gave rise to them were deliberate;

· the person driving the vehicle was under the influence of alcohol or drugs;

· the vehicle was used as an instrument or means of crime;

· the vehicle was used in the presence of faults, the requirements of the competent authorities to eliminate faults or the requirements of the traffic police, and a number of other restrictions were ignored.

The insured amount is established by agreement of the parties and is indicated in the insurance contract (policy). It cannot be higher than the insured value of the vehicle. The insured value of a vehicle can be determined on the basis of the selling price of a similar model, a certificate of invoice, and an assessment by an insurer’s expert. If the policyholder has specified additional equipment, the insured value increases by the cost of the additional equipment.

The amount of the insurance premium - payment for insurance is calculated from the sum insured, the insurance period, the base coefficient and correction factors taking into account the specific conditions of insurance and the procedure for paying the insurance premium.

In the insurance contract, the parties can establish a deductible - the amount of the non-reimbursable portion of the loss. It can be either conditional or unconditional.

A conditional deductible is one in which the insurer does not compensate for a loss that does not exceed the deductible amount, but compensates it in full if it exceeds it.

With an unconditional deductible, the insurer compensates the loss minus the deductible amount.

An insurance contract is usually concluded for a period of one year, but can be concluded for another period by agreement of the parties. It comes into force, unless otherwise stated in it, at the time of payment of the insurance premium or its first installment. Insurance companies, trying to protect themselves, set their own rules. For example, that the contract comes into force after payment of the entire amount of the insurance premium, or in accordance with the date specified in the contract.

Early termination of the insurance contract is possible under the following circumstances:

· If the possibility of an insured event has disappeared and the existence of the risk has ceased due to circumstances other than the insured event. The insurer returns part of the insurance premium for the unexpired period.

· The insurer has fulfilled all its obligations under the insurance contract in full.

· The policyholder canceled the contract ahead of schedule. In this case, it terminates from the date specified in the written notice.

Motor insurance contracts that insurance companies develop for their clients often stipulate the latter’s obligation to inform the insurer about changes in the circumstances reported when concluding the insurance contract. And the insurer has the right to insist on changing the terms of the contract, and, if it refuses to change the terms, on its termination.

The policyholder may enter into an agreement in favor of third parties - beneficiaries, but this does not relieve him of obligations under the agreement if his obligations are not fulfilled by the beneficiary. Insurance companies have the right to demand that beneficiaries fulfill obligations under insurance contracts if they are not fulfilled by policyholders. The beneficiary can be replaced by another, provided that he has not yet fulfilled any obligations under the contract, otherwise the policyholder loses this right.

1. Theoretical aspects of CASCO insurance

Today, car insurance policies are offered by most reputable Russian insurance companies (insurers), as well as individual regional companies. Among them, for example, are the well-known ROSGOSSTRAKH, UralSib, Ingosstrakh, Insurance House VSK, RESO-Garantiya, AlfaStrakhovanie Group, etc. The conditions of car insurance in all companies have their own characteristics and differ some nuances, but they are all based on the same basic concepts and, in fact, differ little from each other.

The following objects can be insured under car insurance contracts:

· motor vehicles (cars and trucks, buses and minibuses, agricultural machinery, trailers and semi-trailers, motorcycles, mopeds, motorbikes, scooters, railway rolling stock and special tanker vehicles, self-propelled mechanisms, etc.);

· additional equipment (audio, video equipment, communication and warning systems, lighting and other equipment installed on the vehicle and not included in its factory configuration);

· civil liability of vehicle owners - the liability of the insured for damage caused to the life, health and/or property of third parties due to the operation of a vehicle (vehicle) (now, by law, all car owners are required to purchase a compulsory civil liability insurance policy, but in addition to it you can purchase and voluntary with a larger sum insured);

· life and health of the driver and passengers in the car from accidents as a result of a road traffic accident (some insurers also offer temporary disability insurance and medical expenses insurance).

All of these objects can be insured as a whole, or you can insure either the car or civil liability, but you cannot separately buy an insurance policy for additional equipment and the life of the driver and passengers - these objects are insured only if the car itself is insured. And most often, only motor vehicles are insured on a voluntary basis, although comprehensive insurance, as a rule, gives the right to a discount of 10 - 20% of the cost of the policy. Thus, insuring one vehicle is not much cheaper than a comprehensive policy.

Almost all vehicles can be insured against theft (theft by theft, robbery, robbery), damage or destruction as a result of an accident, illegal actions of third parties (for example, robbery, damage to paintwork, broken glass, headlights, theft of individual parts and components vehicle), fire, explosion, natural disaster, crash of aircraft or their debris, other foreign objects (including snow and ice, stones flying out from under the wheels of other vehicles), loss of marketability. Only buses, agricultural machinery, railway rolling stock and special vehicles cannot be insured against theft.

If a vehicle is insured against both theft and damage, it is considered fully insured. If the vehicle is insured only against damage, it is considered to be insured under partial comprehensive insurance. It is worth saying that insurance only against theft (without damage) is not practiced by any insurance company. Along with the car, additional equipment can be insured under full or partial comprehensive insurance, but only against those risks for which the vehicle itself is insured.

For full and partial comprehensive insurance, the vehicle must be registered with the State Traffic Safety Inspectorate and undergo a timely inspection. When insuring for full comprehensive insurance, almost all insurers require the presence of an electronic anti-theft system (alarm), and some require the vehicle to be in a guarded parking lot or garage at night. As a rule, the limitation for insurance is the year of manufacture of the car, since all insurers do not like to deal with old vehicles, but different companies have their own restrictions on its service life: for example, in ROSNO - 10 years, in UralSib for domestic vehicles - 7 years, for foreign-made vehicles - 10 years, and cargo vehicles are insured without restrictions.

Insurance contracts for full comprehensive insurance are usually concluded for a period from 3 to 6 months to 1 year (or longer as agreed with the insurer), and for partial comprehensive insurance in some companies they can be concluded even for a month. Some insurers also offer insurance for the duration of the transport of a vehicle, even if it lasts less than a month.

Insurance of the life and health of the driver and passengers of a vehicle against an accident can be carried out in one of two options:

· according to the system of places;

· according to the salon system (or lump sum system).

According to the cabin system, a certain place in a vehicle is insured, for example, the driver’s seat or the seats of the driver and the passenger sitting next to him; the number of insured seats can be any, but not more than the maximum number of seats specified in the technical passport of the vehicle. With interior insurance, the entire vehicle is insured, and the driver and each of the passengers in the vehicle at the time of the accident (or other insured event) can count on payment of compensation.

Temporary disability insurance involves the driver and passengers receiving a certain daily cash benefit for each day of temporary disability (staying on sick leave) caused by an accident with a vehicle.

When insuring medical expenses, the driver and passengers are reimbursed for necessary and reasonably incurred expenses for medical care, the purchase of medicines and prosthetics caused by an accident or other insured events.

Car insurance against loss of marketability is insurance in case of a decrease in the actual value of the vehicle as a result of repair work. This takes into account the service life of the vehicle (usually it should not exceed 2 years), the degree of wear and tear of the vehicle (on average it should not exceed 30%). Vehicles with traces of mechanical and/or corrosion damage to the body and paintwork, and vehicles with a repainted body are not insured against loss of presentation.

When insuring civil liability, the insurance company will reimburse the costs of those to whom the policyholder was found to be at fault if an accident or other incident occurred through the fault of the policyholder and he caused damage to the property, life or health of third parties.

The period of life and health insurance for the driver and passengers of the vehicle, insurance against temporary disability or medical expenses corresponds to the period of insurance for full or partial comprehensive insurance, since these risks cannot be insured without insuring the vehicle itself. The term of the compulsory civil liability insurance contract in accordance with the Law “On compulsory civil liability insurance of vehicle owners” is one year, and voluntary liability can be insured for shorter periods - from 6 months.

A motor vehicle insurance contract with all insurance companies is concluded on the basis of a written application. Typically, each insurer has developed its own application form, but the data indicated in various forms is almost the same everywhere. This is information about the policyholder (passport details, actual address and registration address), information about documents for the vehicle (vehicle passport number, number and date of issue of the registration certificate), information about the vehicle (vehicle type: passenger car, trailer, etc.). p., vehicle model, year of manufacture, VIN, engine number and model, engine power and displacement, chassis number, body color and type, number of doors, mileage, registration number, vehicle storage mode at night, presence of an EPSS indicating the model ), information about persons allowed to drive a vehicle, indicating their driving experience (driving experience is calculated from the date of issue of the driver’s license), the nature of the use of the vehicle, information about insurance contracts concluded in relation to the insured vehicle with other insurance companies. Only the application form for compulsory civil liability insurance is the same in all companies, as it is approved by law.

The application indicates the objects of insurance (motor vehicle, civil liability of vehicle owners, additional equipment, life and health of the driver and passengers), insurance risks (theft, damage, etc.), insurance amounts for which they would like to insure the vehicle, additional equipment, life and health of the driver and passengers, civil liability. The application specifies the desired start date of insurance, the insurance period and the place of validity of the insurance contract - the insurance territory. As a rule, insurance contracts in accordance with the basic insurance conditions are valid on the territory of the Russian Federation.

The application for insurance also indicates the beneficiary - a legal entity or individual in whose favor the insurance agreement was concluded, i.e. the one who receives insurance compensation in the event of an insured event. Anyone can be appointed as a beneficiary; only one condition must be met: his interest in preserving the vehicle. Typically, the beneficiaries of a motor vehicle insurance policy are its owners or persons disposing of the vehicle on the basis of a general power of attorney. But if the vehicle is leased, then the lessor is appointed as the beneficiary; if it is the subject of leasing or collateral (usually if the vehicle is purchased on credit or pledged for the purpose of obtaining a loan), then the agreement will be concluded in favor of the lessor or the person who issued the loan secured by the vehicle, respectively . A beneficiary under a civil liability insurance contract is not appointed, since in accordance with the current civil legislation, an insurance contract for the risk of harm is considered to be concluded in favor of persons who may be harmed.

When insuring additional equipment, the insurance application shall indicate its brand, quantity and cost. When insuring the life and health of the driver and passengers, in the insurance application, the system by which the insurance will be provided is selected (interior system or seat system), and the amount for which the driver and passengers will be insured is established. The beneficiaries of a passenger life and health insurance contract are the driver and passengers.

The application for vehicle insurance is filled out manually, usually in one copy; after completion, it is checked and signed by the policyholder and remains with the insurer, but the policyholder has the right to request a copy of the application. The following must be attached to the insurance application:

· a copy of the registration certificate or PTS (vehicle passport);

· a copy of the rental (leasing) agreement or the policyholder's power of attorney for the right to use the vehicle, if the vehicle is provided for use under a rental (leasing) agreement or is controlled by power of attorney;

· powers of attorney of persons authorized by the policyholder to drive the vehicle;

· copies of driver's licenses of the policyholder and persons authorized to drive the vehicle;

· copy of the vehicle technical certificate;

· documents confirming the cost of the vehicle (certificate invoice, purchase and sale agreement, etc.);

· copies of collateral and loan agreements, if the vehicle is the subject of collateral against which the loan is issued.

In addition to the application, in order to conclude an insurance contract, an inspection of the vehicle is required, which is carried out by a specialist from the insurer. During the inspection, they check the serviceability of the electronic anti-theft alarm system, the presence of anti-theft markings (in appropriate cases), a technical certificate, as well as the compliance of the information specified in the insurance application with the actual ones. Particular attention is paid to the coincidence of engine and body numbers and registration plate. Based on the results of the inspection, a vehicle inspection report is drawn up, which indicates its equipment and any damage to the vehicle at the time of concluding the insurance contract (the insurer is not responsible for them).

When insuring the policyholder's civil liability (without comprehensive vehicle insurance), an inspection of the vehicle is not required, but filling out an application is also mandatory.

2. Analysis of the development of CASCO insurance

2.1 Analysis of the development of transport insurance

1. The number of insurance companies engaged in transport insurance and their share in the total number of insurance companies .

Rice. 1 Number of insurance companies engaged in transport insurance and their share in the total number of insurance companies .

In addition, the market continues to show a trend towards increasing concentration of insurance business. In the transport market as a whole, the top 5 companies collect 45% of premiums.

2. Place of transport insurance in the insurance market by share of insurance premiums and payments

Rice. 2 Place of transport insurance in the insurance market by share of insurance premiums and payments

3. Structure of insurance premium and insurance payments for transport types of insurance

Rice. 3 Structure of premiums for transport types of insurance in 2012

Rice. 4 Structure of payments for transport types of insurance in 2012

4. Structure of insurance premiums and contracts by type of insurer

About 70% of insurance premiums are collected from individuals on road transport. For other types of insurance, contracts with legal entities prevail.

Rice. 5 Dynamics of insurance premiums for motor insurance and compulsory motor liability insurance

Rice. 6 Dynamics of insurance premiums for transport types of insurance (except motor insurance and compulsory motor liability insurance)

6. Analysis of loss ratio by type of transport insurance

Table 1

Analysis of loss ratio by type of transport insurance

Insurance type
Motor hull insurance


Cargo insurance
Aviation risks insurance (property + liability)
Water transport insurance (property + liability)
Other types of insurance
Transport types of insurance

In general, for transport types of insurance, the loss ratio decreased from 63.1% to 55.4%.

The highest loss ratio for motor hull insurance is 64.3%. Compared to 2011, the loss ratio for motor insurance has not changed.

7. Share of transport insurance in GDP. The share of transport insurance in GDP is presented in Table 2

table 2

Share of transport insurance in GDP

Insurance for everything	Insurance without compulsory medical insurance	Transport insurance

8. Characteristics of the real and schematic transport insurance market

The market continues to clear itself of “schemes”. In 2011, the share of “schemes” in the Russian insurance industry was slightly less than 8%.

9. Leading companies in transport types of insurance.

Leading companies in transport types of insurance are presented in Table 3.

Table 3

Leading companies in transport types of insurance

Insurance type
ground transport insurance	Rosgosstrakh, "Ingosstrakh"	Ingosstrakh Group	Ingosstrakh Group
	Rosgosstrakh Group	Ingosstrakh Group	Ingosstrakh Group
	Rosgosstrakh Group	Rosgosstrakh Group	Rosgosstrakh Group
water transport insurance	Ingosstrakh Group	Ingosstrakh Group	SOGAZ Group
air transport insurance	SOGAZ Group	Ingosstrakh Group	Ingosstrakh Group
space risk insurance	Russian Insurance Center	SOGAZ Group	SOGAZ Group
cargo insurance	SOGAZ Group	Ingosstrakh Group	SOGAZ Group
CO carriers	Ingosstrakh Group	Ingosstrakh Group	Ingosstrakh Group

10. The impact of Russia’s accession to the WTO on transport types of insurance

2.2 Analysis of the place of CASCO insurance in insurance premiums and payments in the Russian Federation

The past 2011 was extremely difficult from the point of view of the development of the insurance market, since the situation in it was characterized by the presence of multidirectional processes. On the one hand, there were a number of positive aspects, in particular, the emergence and formation of new types of insurance. On the other hand, the past year was the time when the number of problems that existed within the market reached a significant and significant level in its scale.

Table 4

Structure of insurance premiums and payments for 2011-2013 in the Russian Federation

Indicators
	Billion rub.	Billion rub.	Billion rub.
Insurance premiums, total
Insurance premiums, CASCO
Insurance payments, total
Insurance payments, CASCO

The total number of insurance companies licensed to provide compulsory insurance to vehicle owners at the beginning of 2012 was 379 (compared to the same indicator in 2011 - 407, i.e. 23 companies lower than in 2011.

Rice. 7 Dynamics of insurance premiums in general for the insurance market and CASCO insurance in the Russian Federation

Rice. 8 Dynamics of insurance payments in general for the insurance market and CASCO insurance in the Russian Federation

The dynamics of unprofitability of insurance operations for CASCO insurance are shown in Table 5

Table 5

Dynamics of unprofitability of insurance operations

The total amount of insurance premiums and payments for all types of insurance for 2012 amounted to 812.47 and 370.78 billion rubles. Compared to the previous year 2011, insurance premiums and payments decreased by 455.38 and 517.61 billion rubles. The total amount of insurance premiums and payments for all types of insurance for 9 months of 2013 amounted to 686.81 and 301.98 billion rubles, respectively. (112.6% and 115.1% compared to the same period in 2012).

Thus, CASCO insurance accounts for about a quarter of all insurance premiums and slightly less than 40% of all payments. An analysis of the dynamics of premiums and payments suggests that every year there is an increase in these indicators both for the market as a whole and for CASCO insurance. At the same time, insurance payments for CASCO insurance are growing at a higher rate compared to premiums, which leads to an increase in the unprofitability of CASCO insurance.

2.3 Analysis of the place of CASCO insurance in insurance premiums and payments in the Volga Federal District

The structure of insurance premiums and payments by federal districts in 2012 is shown in Table 6 and illustrated in Fig. 9.10.

Table 6

Structure of insurance premiums and payments for CASCO insurance by federal districts in 2012.

Name of federal districts	Payments, rub.	Prizes, rub.	Loss ratio, %
Under insurance contracts in the Russian Federation - total
including:
Central Federal District
Northwestern Federal District
Southern Federal District
Volga Federal District
Ural federal district
Siberian Federal District
Far Eastern Federal District
North Caucasus Federal District

Rice. 9 Structure of insurance premiums for CASCO insurance by federal districts in 2012

Rice. 10 Structure of insurance payments for CASCO insurance by federal districts in 2012

As can be seen from the figures, more than half of the bonuses and payments occur in the Central Federal District. In the Volga Federal District, insurance companies collect 13.1% of premiums and 13.2% of payments. Our district is in 3rd place in terms of bonuses and payments, behind, in addition to the Central, also the Northwestern Federal District.

As can be seen from Table 6, in terms of the loss ratio of insurance payments, the Volga Federal District is in 4th place, behind, in addition to the Central Federal District and Northwestern Federal District, also the Southern Federal District. The loss ratio in the Volga Federal District for CASCO insurance is 64.6%.

The dynamics of insurance premiums and payments for CASCO insurance in the Volga Federal District are presented in Table 7 and illustrated in Fig. 11, 12.

Table 7

Dynamics of insurance premiums and payments for 2011-2013 in the Volga Federal District

Indicators
	Billion rub.	Billion rub.	Billion rub.
Insurance premiums, total
Insurance premiums, CASCO
Insurance payments, total
Insurance payments, CASCO

Rice. 11 Dynamics of insurance premiums in general for the insurance market and CASCO insurance in the Volga Federal District

Rice. 12 Dynamics of insurance payments in general for the insurance market and CASCO insurance in the Volga Federal District

Having analyzed the dynamics of insurance premiums and payments in the Volga Federal District for 2011-2013, it is clear that there has been an increase in insurance premiums and payments in recent years. This is primarily due to the increase in the number of vehicles in the region. For 2013, the data is not complete, but only for 9 months. But they demonstrate an undeniable projected increase in premiums and payments in 3013. Thus, for 9 months of 2013, insurance premiums and payments amounted to 82.72 billion rubles. and 38.50 billion rubles. which is 16.22% lower than in 2012 and 17.66%, respectively, and this despite the fact that they are given only for three quarters of the year.

2.4 Analysis of insurance companies engaged in CASCO insurance

According to the Bank of Russia Service for Financial Markets, more than two hundred Russian insurance companies have a license for voluntary car insurance. However, the financial sustainability of many of them raises serious questions. Several insurers leave the motor insurance market every year, and their clients find themselves in a difficult situation: the money for the policy has been paid, but the insurance does not provide real financial guarantees.

The rating of Russian insurance companies for comprehensive insurance allows you to obtain the most objective information regarding the financial stability of the leading players in the domestic market. The rating is based on a key indicator - the volume of the company's insurance premium for the previous year. This criterion can be considered decisive for the following reasons:

· Large insurance premiums are a sign of popular recognition. Car owners vote for insurance companies with rubles: the higher the insurer's insurance premium, the more votes Russian drivers gave for it.

· The highest comprehensive insurance income is usually demonstrated by stable companies. Such insurance companies have been on the domestic car insurance market for many years, which is further confirmation of their high reliability.

The ranking of insurance companies by CASCO for 9 months of 2013 is presented in Table 8.

Table 8

Ranking of insurance companies by CASCO for 9 months of 2013

Based on the data in the table, the leaders of the domestic comprehensive insurance market are:

1. Ingosstrakh (25.4 billion rubles).

2. "RESO-Garantiya" (19.9 billion rubles).

3. "Rosgosstrakh" (16.0 billion rubles).

The top ten also included: Soglasie, Military Insurance Company, Alfastrakhovanie, Renaissance Insurance, Alliance, Uralsib and MSK Insurance Group.

Leading companies are presented in Table 9.

Table 9

Leading companies engaged in CASCO insurance

Leading companies	Insurance company place

Ingosstrakh
RESO-Garantiya
Rosgosstrakh
Agreement

Alpha insurance
Renaissance insurance


Insurance group MSK

Having analyzed the places of the leading companies engaged in CASCO insurance for 2011-2013, it is clear that the top five have maintained their positions for 3 years already; these are the companies: Ingosstrakh, RESO-Garantiya, Rosgosstrakh, Soglasie and VSK. The second five companies are also among the top ten leaders for all 3 years, but the companies change positions only among themselves.

3. Development of CASCO insurance in conditions of fierce competition

3.1 Forecast for the development of CASCO insurance

Table 10 shows statistical data on CASCO insurance for 2009-2012.

Table10

Dynamics of insurance premiums for 2007-2012, million rubles.

Insurance type
Motor hull insurance

Having reflected the statistical data in Table 10, we move on to the forecasting process.

We will perform forecasting by finding the trend line in the form of a straight line described by the equation:

Y = A + B * T (1)

In this case, it is necessary to perform a forecast taking into account a certain sequence of actions:

1. Finding an equation describing changes in insurance premiums.

First, we look for a straight line equation of the form Y = A + B * T. To do this, determine the coefficients A and B using the following formulas:

where Yi is the value of the actual premium in the i year;

Ti - serial number of the i-th year;

n is the number of years considered (n = 6).

Calculation of coefficients A and B:

2. Determination of the predicted insurance premium using statistical methods.

The size of the forecast is obtained by substituting the number of the year for which the forecast is made into the resulting equation (item 1).

U=148145+4224.86*T

148145+4224.86*7=177719.0 million rubles.

Rice. 13. Dynamics of insurance premiums for CASCO insurance and their forecast for 2013 according to linear dependence

In forecasting the performance of the insurance market, it is necessary to constantly take into account various factors that have a huge impact on the dynamics and trends of insurance activity.

As practice shows, changes in insurance performance indicators are directly or inversely dependent, or do not depend at all on changes in influencing factors.

That is why forecasting using statistical methods alone is insufficient to determine insurance premiums for the planning period.

Motor hull insurance depends on the following factors:

· Changes in lending conditions - with tightening conditions - reduction in premiums, table 11

· Sales volume - With an increase in car sales volumes, premiums increase, table 12

· Income of the population - with an increase in income of the population, premiums increase, table 13

Table11

Forecast of dynamics of macroeconomic indicators

Table12

Volume of retail loans

According to a review by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, in the second half of 2011 there was a decrease in the availability of loans for all categories of borrowers. As a result, even during this period there was a slowdown in the growth rate of auto hull insurance premiums.

Table13

Car sales volume

As of 01/01/14 2.7 million units. existing car loans in an amount equal to 1.4 trillion. rubles in 2012 increased by 35%, in 2013 increased by 24%

Thus, to forecast insurance premiums for 2013, it is necessary to partially adjust the insurance premiums calculated by statistical methods to the expected magnitude of changes in influencing factors.

Let's move on to the insurance premium forecasting algorithm, which will be based on the modified Fisher model, used in many economic calculations:

SPp = SPb * [(1 + Tp) * (1 + Tf)] (4)

where SPp is the predicted value of industry insurance premiums, taking into account the influence of factors and statistical calculations; St. Petersburg - the value of industry insurance premiums for the period preceding the forecasted one, that is, for the base period; Tp -- the growth rate of insurance premiums in the industry in the forecast period, expressed as a decimal fraction; Tf - the sum of the products of the specific weight of the factor, the growth rate of the corresponding influencing factors, expressed as a decimal fraction.

We will carry out the forecast insurance premiums for 2013, adjusted for the amount of changes in influencing factors, as follows:

1. calculate the Tf indicator:

Tf = 0.333 * 0.28 + 0.333 * 0.36 + 0.333 * 0.036 = 0.22

2. determine the growth rate of insurance premiums in the industry in the forecast period, expressing it as a decimal fraction:

3. Having calculated the above indicators, we substitute them into equation (4):

SPp im = 196000 * [(1 - 0.094) * (1 + 0.22)] = 216,643 (million rubles)

3.2 Comparison of CASCO insurance conditions

Since CASCO is a voluntary type of insurance, insurance companies, in conditions of fierce competition, are developing various CASCO insurance programs. Distinctive features of some of the most common programs are shown in Table 14. For comparison, they also present CASCO tariffs made for a conditional example. The conditions of a conditional example are given in Table 15.

Table14

Comparison of CASCO insurance conditions

Insurance Company	CASCO insurance program	Distinctive features	Estimated cost, rub./year
Rosgosstrakh	Economy 50/50	The insurance contract was concluded with the condition of paying the insurance premium in installments in two installments: The first installment in the amount of 50% of the total amount of the accrued insurance premium is paid upon concluding the Insurance Agreement; The second installment in the amount of 50% of the total amount of the accrued insurance premium is paid no later than the expiration date of the insurance period (specified in the insurance policy).
Alpha insurance	AlphaCASCO 50x50	For 50% of the cost of a standard CASCO policy, you insure your car in case of theft or total loss, i.e. If such an insured event occurs, you will receive full compensation without any additional payments. And if your car is damaged as a result of an accident, you can choose: either to repair the car yourself (if the damage is minor) or to pay 25% of the policy cost to receive full compensation for this insured event. At the same time, at any time before the occurrence of an insured event, you can pay an additional 50% of the cost and receive full CASCO coverage.
Uralsib insurance	CASCO Smart	Insurance coverage under the new CASCO Smart program applies to two insured events that occur during the year. Tariffs are 15 - 30% lower than the basic CASCO tariffs. If desired, the policyholder can additionally “purchase” and include in the contract a larger number of probable insured events, as well as insure health against accidents, civil liability, and additional equipment.

Table 15

Initial data for a conditional example

	Name of the source data indicator	Characteristics of a conditional example
		Nizhny Novgorod


	Year of issue
	Modification	RENAULT LOGAN1.4.
	Average car cost	370,000 rubles
	Driver age

Having compared the conditions of CASCO insurance in the companies: Rosgosstrakh, Alfa insurance and Uralsib, according to the conditional example from table 15, in my opinion, the most profitable is CASCO insurance in the Alfa insurance company under the AlfaCASCO 50H50 program for 29,530 rubles / year, t .To. for this type of insurance, you can pay an additional 50% of the policy cost at any time, or you can not do this and also receive compensation for losses incurred. Another advantage of this type of insurance in this company is the lowest cost of insurance among the offered options.

3.3 Analysis of problems in CASCO insurance

In the realities of today's life, auto CASCO is everything that relates to the integrity and safety of the body, i.e. "sides" of a car. But today there are a number of problems with CASCO insurance, which are presented in Table 16.

Table16

Problems of CASCO insurance and ways to solve them

	Problems of Casco insurance	Ways to solve problems
	Inflation, rising repair costs	Rising tariffs
	Growing unprofitability of car insurance	Use the franchise more actively and adjust the terms of the policies
	Violation of compensation payment deadlines by insurers	fine companies for violating compensation payment deadlines.
	Understating the amount of insurance payment	Development of a unified methodology for damage assessment
	Clarifications of the Supreme Court regarding: prohibition of refusal to pay compensation if, after the theft, the driver did not provide the insurance company with a car registration certificate, a second set of keys and other documents for the car prohibition of refusal to pay compensation if the car was driven by a person not specified in the insurance policy.	Development of a standard comprehensive insurance policy and its legislative implementation;
	Increase in court decisions in favor of policyholders	Introduce a mandatory pre-trial regulation procedure
	Increase in fraud on the part of policyholders	Transition of insurers to: in-kind form of compensation (repair work) as opposed to payment of monetary compensation
	Lack of clear legislative language on the timing of repair work and responsibility for failure to comply with it	Introducing deadlines for repair work and liability for non-compliance
	The presence of disagreements between policyholders and insurers in assessing damage; The right of insurance companies to directly influence the amount of damage determined by concluding contracts only with those appraisers (expert technicians) who agree to their terms	Any institutions and departments must make any decisions regarding the determination of any value only with the full participation of experts from self-regulatory organizations of appraisers. They must become full-fledged subjects of any activity, including legislative activity, related to the determination of value. Grant the victim the right to independently determine the assessment (expert) organization, oblige insurance companies to make payments based on the results of the assessment provided by the victim to the insurance company, and provide the right to insurance companies to challenge the assessment results in court only after they have made the payment.

This table shows that there are a number of different problems with CASCO insurance, all of which, in my opinion, are very important because They all, to one degree or another, affect CASCO insurance, and this table already presents solutions to combat these problems.

Conclusion

In the modern world there is an active tendency to increase the number of cars. And in connection with this, the number of road accidents is growing, in which both a novice and an experienced driver can become participants. Car insurance helps you feel more confident on the road and avoid significant costs associated with road accidents.

The most common type of car insurance is CASCO. By taking out an insurance policy, you insure not only the car itself, but also the additional equipment installed in it.

There are two types of CASCO car insurance: full (provides coverage of all risks) and partial (includes only the risk of damage to the car). Their cost depends on the conditions that the owner chooses when taking out insurance and the technical characteristics of the car.

In general, calculating comprehensive insurance is quite easy. To do this, you must provide the personal data of the drivers and vehicle data. The insurance company will be interested in the price of the car and the presence of an anti-theft system that satisfies insurance requirements. The question may also arise about the presence of security at car parks.

There are many reasons why car owners prefer CASCO. Among them are:

· Insurance of a significant number of risks (fire, theft, theft, traffic accident and others).

· The insured amount, which in most cases is equal to the market value of the car and is paid upon the occurrence of an insured event. In this case, the amount of the deductible and depreciation during the contract are deducted.

· The duration of the contract and the schedule of insurance payments are chosen by the client.

· The cost of insurance does not exceed the cost of the simplest repair.

· Costs of transporting the vehicle from the scene of the accident, which are paid by the insurance company.

· Insurance coverage of car repair costs.

· Saving money, time and nerves of the car owner in the event of an insured event.

· Ease of determining the cost of CASCO insurance. To do this, you can use the Casco calculator in on-line mode.

The advantages of CASCO are obvious.

You can doubt your choice for a long time. Get behind the wheel of your car every day with the hope that everything will be fine today. Or take out an insurance policy. The choice is yours. But remember that CASCO car insurance is your confidence in the future.

2. Official website of the Bank of Russia financial markets service - http://www.fcsm.ru/

3. Official website of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation - http://www.minfin.ru/ru/

4. Federal State Statistics Service - http://www.gks.ru/

5. Insurance guru. Insurance portal - http://www.inguru.ru/

6. Federal Law of April 25, 2002 No. 40-FZ (as amended on July 23, 2013) “On compulsory civil liability insurance of vehicle owners” as amended by Federal Law of December 24, 2002 No. 176-FZ, resolution of the Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation dated May 31, 2005 No. 6-P, Federal Law dated May 16, 2008 No. 73-FZ, dated December 25, 2012 No. 267-FZ)

7. Wikipedia - http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casco

An empirical study of comprehensive insurance using an example. Usova E., Filatov A.Yu

Models for assessing solvency and approaches to increasing it

Study of the influence of asset characteristics on the solvency of an insurance company

Analysis of the influence of initial capital on the strategy of investing in risky or risk-free assets

Analysis of the impact of diversification of investments in risky and risk-free assets on solvency

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