Lev Margolin, economist:

– There will be no significant differences in the country’s economy compared to this year. The decline will continue. Perhaps less than this year, but there will be no growth. How significant this decline will be depends on the outcome of negotiations with Russia on oil and gas.

As for the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble to the dollar, if the National Bank continues its tight monetary policy, the dollar movement next year will be within 10% - maximum 20%. If a shrinking economy forces massive cash injections in the form of loans, then the rate increase could be 50% or even 100%. Everything is in the hands of the authorities.

People's wages will continue to fall. To reverse this trend, the country needs investment, primarily foreign. But they are not expected. The second way to increase wages is through massive job cuts. But the authorities most likely will not dare to do this.

Unemployment will certainly rise. Enterprises will reduce production volumes, demand for their products will continue to fall, and they will try to get rid of unnecessary ballast in the form of labor.

Anton Boltochko, economist:

– Next year is a year in which important economic and political decisions will need to be made. Without them, it will not be possible to wait out or survive the current economic situation once again.

If we nevertheless accept the inertial scenario, in which economic policy remains at the same level, in the same form as now, then we will face another year of recession and a decline in GDP. The economic picture can be called Nebrezhnev's modern Belarusian economic stagnation.

The decline in household incomes will continue, unemployment, both registered and unregistered, will increase due to the difficult financial situation of enterprises. I don’t believe in the 9% inflation that the authorities are talking about. It will be higher, and its level will affect the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble to the dollar.

This year it was supported by the donation of currency by the population. Next year, unfortunately, Belarusians will have less money, and as a result we will see a weakening of the national currency. There will be no landslide devaluation, and, most likely, the Belarusian ruble will fall in price by the level of inflation with minor deviations.

Yaroslav Romanchuk, economist:

– Next year will be more difficult than this one. The economic recession will not end. How much it will fall in 2017 – by 1% or 4% – will depend on how many conditional black swans will fly to Belarus. We will, no doubt, receive a couple from Russia in the form of supplies of oil, gas, prices for potash fertilizers and terms of trade on the Russian market. Exports will fall, there is nowhere to expect investment.

The real estate market will continue to fall.

State-owned enterprises will actively lay off workers, and unemployment in the country will de facto rise to 500 thousand people. If the company performs well, the salary of its remaining employees will be 250-400 dollars in a very good scenario. If the company falls under restructuring, 150–200 dollars will seem like happiness.

The National Bank will most likely not be able to continue its tight monetary policy as this year, and inflation will be more than 10%. A dollar will cost three Belarusian rubles, and in a pessimistic scenario even more.

Every person is interested in prophecies for the current year 2017, since for many this year seems to be more peaceful, calm, without wars, cataclysms and other types of shocks. And yet, for Belarus, the prophecies for this year are not so positive; we will talk about this in more detail later.

Thus, Pavel Globa, a well-known astrologer, prophesies that Belarus will become part of Russia this year, since the economic condition of the Russian Federation should stabilize, which is why its influence will increase. And yet he does not provide any information regarding the president of this country.

Edgar Cayce, an American clairvoyant, in his predictions recalled the political apathy of Belarus in the current 2017, moreover, this will continue for a long period of time and this year is the start of a period of passivity for the country. Belarus will not care so much what happens in the world. However, this will only be beneficial for the country, since Belarus will be able to form a normal state, learning from the mistakes of others. Thanks to this, it will be possible to strengthen the country's borders.

Despite the fact that Vanga has been dead for quite a long time, her predictions continue to excite her, everyone still wants to know what to expect in the future. If you believe the prophecies of the Great Vanga, in 2017 Belarus will be in a suspended state, and this will suit both its neighbors and residents, as it can influence the strengthening of the country’s statehood.

In parallel with this, many astrologers predict the likelihood of shocks for Belarus, even a coup d'etat, since the situation in this country will be too unstable. For example, Archpriest Vladislav Shumov prophesied that Belarus faces great difficulties; as a result, its unification with Russia should be expected, only thanks to this can the foundation for a new state be formed.

There are different opinions regarding the fate of the head of Belarus. Thus, Pavel Globa prophesied that the president would have almost another half-century of rule, as Belarus would enter a period of stability and passivity. Although, there are forecasts according to which in the near future the place of the current president will be taken by a completely new political figure.

In addition, there are prophecies of the famous astrologer Tatyana Kalinina; she claims that the current 2017 will not be easy for Belarus, but it will be quite favorable in relation to international politics and the financial situation of the country. The situation will improve more in the fall in the second half of the year. This period prophesies the adoption of radically important decisions regarding the areas of education, creativity, and sports. However, before moving on to such a period, Belarus must endure a very difficult first half of the year, during which events are likely that will completely undermine the country's authority, both domestically and throughout the world. Because of this, difficulties and instability are possible for ordinary citizens, and yet during such a period there is a possibility of receiving a serious financial loan. In addition, in 2017, some maturation and formation of the Belarusian nation is expected; the country’s authorities must prepare a specific program of action in the field of government, foreign policy, and economic relations. We can also expect an improvement in the quality of life of civil servants, the working class and village residents.

Consequently, the prophecies for Belarus for 2017 are quite ambivalent. On the one hand, Belarus faces apathy in politics, as well as stability, which will allow the creation of a normal state. Whereas, on the other hand, dramatic changes and instability are coming to the country, up to the possible entry into another state - the Russian Federation. Only time will be able to answer the question - what will actually happen, what to expect in Belarus, since very often the prophecies of astrologers do not come true and in reality completely different events occur. So, astrological forecasts are a very interesting thing, but you don’t need to trust them blindly; in any case, it’s worth studying the latest news and building your future plans based on what you’ve heard together with probable forecasts.

Today we will discuss what will happen in Belarus in 2017. As the predictions come true, I will add links to news resources next to the prediction. So add the page to your browser bookmarks... It will be interesting!

Forecast for Belarus for 2017

The overall well-being of the country will increase from February 2017, the results of 2017 will be much more fruitful than the last 2.5-3 years. Confirmation No. 1. This will be especially noticeable after September 22, 2017, when all the planets will line up successfully for Belarus.

From September 22, luck will smile on the spheres of domestic trade, media and transport. 2017 will be a fruitful and successful year for agriculture.

Also, from the fall of 2017, the birth rate in the country may increase. And the government’s patronage of the education system will increase.

So, what exactly can be said about the Belarusian horoscope for 2017?

In general, the year will bring big changes to the state. apparatus, tangible for officials and those responsible for the internal world order. Confirmation of the forecast.

Until February 12, 2017, the country can receive a good loan. Confirmation of the forecast. February and early March will be good for the government, which will strengthen its position and be able to demonstrate its strength and influence. Confirmation #1.

March 2017 in the Belarusian horoscope for 2017 will be difficult for the economy and the prestige of our country may suffer in the eyes of neighboring countries.

Astrologer, researcher and teacher. Author of many successful public forecasts for presidents, politicians, countries and prominent people. Frequent guest of television and radio broadcasts on astrological topics. Author of the book “Astrology of Pregnancy”. Over 8 years of experience.

Astrologer Tatyana Kalinina

The end of March - mid-May 2017 will bring events in the field of foreign partnerships, immigration issues or foreigners. Confirmation of the forecast.

A period when we can all feel difficulties, dissatisfaction, confusion of emotions and displeasure.

From May 18, 2017 to July 3, the situation will improve and stabilize. A favorable period will be created for the spheres of education, science, sports, culture and creative professions.

August 25 – October 13 will be significant for the President of Belarus. These will be important negotiations on cooperation with foreign partners.

October 13 – November 2, 2017 – important decisions in foreign policy, continuation of the previous topic and obtaining results.

November - December issues of lending to the country and generating additional profit will become relevant again. A time of change in the life of the working class, civil servants - military and doctors.

Next year will begin a period of rethinking and maturation of the nation. The country will develop its own clear lines in the field of international relations, internal trade, economics and issues of power.

In general, 2017 will be more successful than the previous period in financial matters, as well as issues of economic growth and foreign policy. Confirmation .

I hope that the favorable arrangement of stars for Belarus will be realized to the maximum for all of us!

Astrologer Tatyana Kalinina.

In contact with

Belarus ended the past year with a stagnating economy and an ongoing oil and gas conflict with Russia. In his New Year's address, President Alexander Lukashenko said that he had high hopes for 2017: “It should become a turning point and give a powerful impetus to the development of the country.” Analysts surveyed by DW are noticeably less optimistic about the future. They made their forecasts for DW for the coming year, outlining the main trends in the economy and domestic politics of Belarus.

1. Finding the bottom in the economy

“Most of the measures planned by the government for 2017 were promised several years ago. Even if they are implemented, they are already too late,” Leonid Fridkin, editor-in-chief of Ekonomicheskaya Gazeta, said in an interview with DW. He believes that Belarusians should not expect economic growth in the coming year.

The head of the Kosht ​​Urada project, Vladimir Kovalkin, in a conversation with DW, suggested that 2017 “is preparing the end of the period of macroeconomic stabilization and the groping for that very cherished bottom.” At the same time, the expert points out that it is more likely that “the leadership of Belarus will be able to keep the economy within the parameters set in the budget.”

2. Return to the promise of $500 paychecks

In his New Year’s address, Alexander Lukashenko promised: “No matter what it costs us, we will significantly increase citizens’ incomes in the coming year.” On December 21, when appointing Natalya Kochanova as the new head of the presidential administration, Lukashenko announced a more specific goal: “The average salary next year is $500. Despite all the difficulties, no matter what it costs - steal, dig up, find, whatever, but $500 must be met ".

According to Belstat, in November the average accrued salary in Belarus was 717 rubles ($366 converted). The implementation of a similar demand by Lukashenko before the 2010 presidential campaign the year after the elections led to a threefold devaluation of the ruble. Economists interviewed by DW do not consider a repeat of that collapse likely.

An expert at the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS), Alexander Avtushko-Sikorsky, suggested that no one would seriously carry out this oral instruction from the president: “As far as I understand, this is (the average salary is $500. - Ed.) is not stated anywhere in the target indicators of program documents. This means that there will be nothing to ask the officials for." The expert emphasized that in order to achieve $500 salaries, the printing press will have to be turned on again, inflation will start and the stability of the ruble exchange rate will decrease, "and this has already been done many times."

Meanwhile, on December 30, Lukashenko, speaking with journalists, returned to the topic of $500 salaries, clarifying: “Whoever is called to do this, but does not want to, we will part with them. Whatever it costs us, we will move towards this goal.”

3. Reforms and restructuring of state-owned companies

Each pumping of money into the Belarusian economy ended in another crisis and devaluation, driving the accumulated structural problems deeper, reminds Vladimir Kovalkin. “There is a certain risk that the authorities will succumb to persuasion and temptation to solve the problem of growth through emissions. But such a probability is minimal as long as there is hope of getting loans from the IMF and the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD),” Leonid Fridkin is sure.

Structural reforms, the necessity of which independent economists insist, from their point of view, are possible either under the influence of external factors (the demands of foreign creditors) or as a reaction to the collapse of the economy.

Pavel Daneyko, general director of the Minsk Institute of Privatization and Management, in an interview with DW, called the decision by the Belarusian authorities to restructure state-owned companies the main issue of 2017. Daneyko sees no other choice for the government. By the way, such restructuring is one of the main conditions for providing Belarus with a loan from the IMF.

Experts interviewed by DW doubt that the authorities in Minsk will dare to massively bankrupt insolvent enterprises. “Rather, they will try to drag their feet and look for ways to correct the situation using the usual administrative measures,” Friedkin believes.

4. Continuation of the oil and gas conflict between Belarus and Russia

Belarus entered the New Year with an unresolved dispute with Russia regarding the terms of hydrocarbon supplies. In this regard, Deputy Prime Minister of the Government of Belarus Vladimir Semashko told BELTA on December 29 that “we do not lose optimism.” According to Semashko, the Belarusian government hopes to “reach a compromise solution on the oil and gas issue no later than the first quarter of 2017.”

Context

Alexander Avtushko-Sikorsky does not share the Deputy Prime Minister’s optimism. According to the BISS expert, 2016 was the last year when Belarus had more or less favorable conditions for purchasing oil and gas from the Russian Federation. “The profitability of Russian supplies will fall, and negotiations will become increasingly difficult,” the expert predicts.

5. Depression, local elections and the 100th anniversary of the October Revolution

The Belarusian left intends to magnificently celebrate the 100th anniversary of the October Revolution in 2017, and the church and right-wing politicians intend to remember the victims of communist terror. The head of the Warsaw Center for Political Analysis and Forecasts, Pavel Usov, noted in an interview with DW that Belarusians, on the one hand, are tired of living in a state of constant political depression, and on the other hand, they do not have the strength to change the situation and do not hope for the best.

“Most likely, the population will face new forms of economic coercion (such as a tax on parasitism) from the authorities, which will increase protest sentiments and discontent. But it is unlikely to find expression in open opposition to the authorities, with the exception of local riots,” Usov believes .

For the chairman of the United Civil Party (UCP) Anatoly Lebedko, 2017 is mainly a year of risks and challenges: “For citizens - the crisis and the government’s dead-end economic policy. For the authorities - the Russian factor and the final destruction of the social contract with the population. For supporters of change - a reset of relations by the West with official Minsk."

The campaign for local council elections will begin in November 2017. First Deputy Chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Oleg Gaidukevich and leader of the “Tell the Truth” campaign Andrei Dmitriev expressed hope that the elections will be held along with a referendum on changing the electoral system. From the current majoritarian system to a mixed one, providing for parliamentary elections based on party lists.

See also:

• From Moscow - to Minsk

  The series of photographs "Moscow-Minsk" is a long-term project by photographers Sandra Ratkovic and André Fischer. The main task of German photographers is to correctly understand and document the culture in the post-Soviet space.



Photo gallery: Moscow and Minsk through the eyes of German photographers

Time ago

Sandra Ratkowitz and Andre Fischer became interested in Russia and Belarus three years ago: then the young photographers were photographing monuments of Soviet architecture in Berlin. “In many places, time seemed to stand still,” Ratkowitz shared her impressions in an interview with DW. A few years later, the photographers decided on a new journey. The camera lens captured architectural monuments of Moscow and Minsk.



Photo gallery: Moscow and Minsk through the eyes of German photographers

Militarism in detail

During the two-week trip, the photographers were most struck by the militarism that has penetrated into all spheres of life of Russians and Belarusians. The photo shows a souvenir shop in Moscow.



Photo gallery: Moscow and Minsk through the eyes of German photographers

Two weeks in the capital

“Choosing Moscow as the first stage of the trip was the right decision. After visiting the capital, the desire to see other Russian cities immediately appears. In addition, Moscow contains important architectural monuments and the Central Museum of the Great Patriotic War,” explained Andre Fischer.



Photo gallery: Moscow and Minsk through the eyes of German photographers

Summer walk

Visitors to one of the largest walking areas in the capital - Izmailovsky Park in Moscow.



Photo gallery: Moscow and Minsk through the eyes of German photographers

Flowered weapons

“It was very interesting to observe the military and everyday culture in Moscow and Minsk. In Germany, you rarely see a bride and groom taking pictures in front of the Eternal Flame,” said Sandra Ratkowitz. In the photo there are cannons in the Gzhel and Khokhloma style.



Photo gallery: Moscow and Minsk through the eyes of German photographers

Spectacular buildings

Photographers describe Moscow as an amazing city: “It attracts with numerous historical sites and impressive architecture: old churches, buildings in the style of socialist realism, the Moscow metro.”



Photo gallery: Moscow and Minsk through the eyes of German photographers

Next stop - Minsk

It was no coincidence that Andre Fischer ended up in the Belarusian capital: “After language courses at the linguistic university, I had the opportunity to spend a whole month in Minsk to immerse myself in the local culture and everyday life. Much in this city resembles Moscow, only in a smaller format.”



Photo gallery: Moscow and Minsk through the eyes of German photographers

Tankman's Day

While in Minsk, Andre Fischer saw an unusual performance. Tankman's Day is a professional holiday, which since 1946 has been celebrated annually in Belarus on the second Sunday of September.

And it depends only on us what they will be.

Over the course of two decades, the dictator has brought the country to such a state that no one can save him. The Lukashenko project, launched in 1994 by Russian intelligence services to maintain control over the neighboring country, is recognized as a failure even by its creators.

For years, huge resources were poured into the dictatorship next door in exchange for vows of eternal friendship and the illusion of the existence of some kind of unity modeled on the collapsed Soviet Union: hundreds of millions of tons of oil, hundreds of billions of cubic meters of gas, at least one hundred billion dollars, preferences in the food and agricultural machinery market , support in the international political arena and the global credit market. As one Russian businessman I know said, “you Belarusians, if it weren’t for your Luka, would eat from golden plates and sit on golden toilets.”

Of course, in a political sense, Lukashenko’s regime was beneficial to the Russian authorities. Firstly, as a scarecrow, distracting from human rights problems in Russia itself. Belarusians remember well how Western diplomats, in response to calls to join the fight against dictatorship, told them that “democracy will come to Belarus from Russia.” Secondly, as a “testing ground” on which methods of reprisal against the opposition were tested: from the murder of democratic leaders, brazen election fraud, the closure of independent television channels, newspapers and radio stations, to the introduction of repressive laws against civil society (at the same time, the Kremlin carefully monitored the reaction West to Lukashenko's lawlessness). And most importantly, as an oil offshore, which made it possible to withdraw huge sums from the Russian budget into the pockets of the Kremlin rulers.

But today Putin cannot even say thank you to Lukashenko for all this. The shale revolution, the collapse of oil prices, the wars in Ukraine and Syria, the economic and political crisis in the country, which is just around the corner (the Caucasus is burning and Tatarstan is beginning to be indignant), are forcing the Russian authorities to seriously reconsider spending items. It became pointless to spend money on a crazy king who mediocrely squandered gigantic aid.

The picture, indicative for the post-Soviet space, entitled “Prosperous Belarus under the wing of Russia” failed. Under Lukashenko’s leadership, the country has slipped into poverty: GDP has been falling rapidly for several years, salaries and pensions in the regions are 60-80 dollars, rising prices and unemployment are breaking records, bank bankruptcy and default are just around the corner. Popular discontent is growing, officials and businessmen grumble, who live like those potatoes from the “bearded” joke - they will either be planted in the spring or harvested in the fall.

This time, it seems, Lukashenko himself will be removed. Feed is not good for the horse and, no matter what Makeyevka’s analysts say today, they change such people even at the crossing.

The question today is: what next? Replacing one puppet with another does not solve problems. There will be no new good life under the Russian protectorate, only you will have to serve not in Maryina Gorka, but in the Donbass, and serve your prison sentence not in Mogilev, but in Kolyma.

It's time to realize that today the fate of each of us depends on the path our country takes. It's impossible to stay on the sidelines. Not only the opposition, human rights activists or independent journalists, but absolutely everyone today is experiencing in their own skin and wallet the cost of a government that is not elected, but imposed.

Every businessman, official, worker, teacher, doctor, artist, musician, journalist, student knows what he can do in his specific place. And then you need to get together at one time and sweep away to hell all these ridiculous, notorious bosses who imagine themselves to be the masters of lives and destinies.

I believe in God and the Belarusian people. This faith helped me throughout these two difficult decades. And I know for sure that Belarusians will no longer be objects of other people’s political manipulations, but will become masters of their lives and heroes of Belarusian history.

Natalia Radina, editor-in-chief of charter97.org