The 2016 budget is being adopted in an unfavorable macroeconomic environment and high uncertainty. However, there is no talk yet about reducing social obligations or increasing taxes. How does the Russian Government assess the current macroeconomic situation and what are the planned budget and tax innovations for 2016? Let's look at it in this article.

Federal Law No. 273-FZ dated September 30, 2015 changed the rules of budget planning. Due to the high level of uncertainty, the three-year cycle was temporarily replaced with a one-year one (the previous transition to a one-year budget was in the crisis year of 2009). However, the documents discussed below (with the exception of the draft budget for 2016) are designed for the period up to 2018 inclusive.

Brief overview of the legislative framework

The assessment of the prospects for the development of the national economy, budget and tax policies for 2016 was carried out based on the analysis of the following acts:

Forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2016

The documents of the Government of the Russian Federation analyze and structure the main unfavorable conditions that will limit the socio-economic development of Russia in the coming years. According to the government, three key imbalances in economic development have recently increased, and three challenges have arisen that our country will have to face in the future. The main economic problems identified by the Government of the Russian Federation are presented below in tabular form.

Negative conditions for the socio-economic development of Russia for the period until 2018

Challenges
Declining global demand for traditional commodities		Aggravation of the geopolitical situation		Declining working-age population
Structural problems
Structural imbalances in economic development			High share of state presence in the economy	The need to improve the efficiency of government spending	Lagging behind the global pace of technological development
Declining share of investment in the structure of GDP	Growing dependence of the economy on “unstable” oil and gas revenues	Deterioration in qualitative and quantitative indicators of budget system expenditures

According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, economic growth will resume in 2016, and by 2018 it is planned that the domestic economy will reach the world average rate of development. The launch of a new growth model can be effective if two key conditions are implemented, the first of which is macroeconomic stability, and the second is improving the quality of public administration.

The forecast of scenario conditions and main macroeconomic parameters was developed in two versions - basic and optimistic.

The base scenario envisages an increase in the average annual price of Urals oil from 50 US dollars per barrel in 2015 to 60, 65 and 70 US dollars per barrel in 2016 - 2018. It is also expected that sanctions from the US and EU will continue throughout the forecast period.

The optimistic scenario assumes a higher average annual increase in oil prices compared to the baseline scenario - from 60 US dollars per barrel in 2015 to 70, 80 and 90 US dollars per barrel in 2016 - 2018. In addition, this scenario takes into account the partial lifting of sanctions and the restoration of access of Russian companies to the global capital market.

Characterizing 2016, the Ministry of Economic Development predicts that the situation in the economy of 2009–2010 will be repeated, but with a smaller amplitude.

Budget policy for 2016

Against the backdrop of a difficult budget situation regarding pensions, the Government of the Russian Federation proposes the following measures:

• “freezing” the funded component of the pension system;
• indexation of pensions in 2016 by an amount lower than actual inflation;
• abolition of indexation of pensions of working pensioners in 2016.

As part of solving the problem increasing the efficiency of providing state and municipal services Work will continue to create incentives for a more rational and economical use of budget funds.

This problem is planned to be solved by optimizing the structure of the budget network through the liquidation or transformation into another organizational and legal form of state (municipal) institutions that provide services on a paid basis exclusively in the interests of state authorities and local governments, as well as the transfer of services (works), not related to the profile of the body exercising the powers of the founder, the relevant body. In addition, state (municipal) services (works) must be brought into compliance with the legislation on the division of powers between public legal entities. At the same time, work, the cost of which can be determined on the basis of standard costs, must be reclassified as services, and work, the cost of which cannot be determined on a standard basis, must be transferred to the market.

It is also planned to complete the work on the formation of standard costs for the provision of state and municipal services based on the general requirements for the determination of these standards adopted in the development of budget legislation by federal executive authorities that regulate in established areas of activity. This will make it possible to introduce a transparent methodology for determining the cost of each state (municipal) service based on standard costs calculated in accordance with a single basic standard that takes into account economically justified services, and correction factors to it.

Improving the quality of government and municipal services will be facilitated by increasing competition among legal entities(including state and municipal institutions) involved in the provision of state (municipal) services. The involvement of organizations that are not such institutions in the process of implementing constitutional guarantees in social and other areas of activity will become possible with the adoption of the federal law on the provision of state (municipal) services and the performance of work on behalf of a public legal entity to individuals and (or) legal entities on a competitive basis. basis. Thus, the consumer of services will be provided with the opportunity to independently choose the place (provider organization), quality and volume of services guaranteed by the state.

Future plans include the adoption of a federal law on the provision of state (municipal) services on behalf of a public legal entity to individuals and (or) legal entities on a competitive basis. This will allow organizations that are not government agencies to be involved in the process of providing such services.

Concerning public services to the population and business provided by authorities, the quality of these services is expected to be radically improved:

• by ensuring access to them on the “one window” principle for at least 90% of citizens, for which, among other things, over 2.5 thousand multifunctional centers for the provision of state and municipal services should be created;
• by transferring the provision of public services into electronic form. Moreover, the share of citizens using the mechanism for receiving state and municipal services in electronic form should reach at least 70% by 2018;
• through the introduction of a system for assessing the quality of services provided by citizens and the creation on this basis of a system for assessing the work of state and municipal bodies in providing services;
• through the introduction of an identity card of a citizen of the Russian Federation in the form of a plastic card with an electronic storage medium as the main identification document on the territory of the Russian Federation.

The development of the public procurement system is also associated with increasing the efficiency of budget expenditures. Despite the adoption of new regulation in this area, a number of issues remain unresolved at present that impede the optimization of budget expenditures on public procurement. In this regard, it is proposed, in particular, to reconsider the approaches to advance payment of contracts and maintaining it only in cases where the advance reduces the costs of the customer and supplier for the execution of the contract. After all, the size of advances often reaches 80–100% of the contract amount, and according to accounting data, the debt on advance payments in 2014 amounted to 2,565.7 billion rubles. (95.6% of total expense accounts receivable). If the practice of advance payment is maintained, it will be necessary to introduce a tool to control the financial resources provided to suppliers. Such a tool is treasury contract support, tested in 2015 and receiving positive feedback from participants in the procurement process.

Tax policy for 2016

The main directions of tax policy allow economic agents to determine their business guidelines taking into account expected changes in the tax sphere. Over the next three-year period, the priority of the Government of the Russian Federation will remain preventing any increase in the tax burden on the economy. An actual moratorium should ensure the stability of the tax system and increase its attractiveness to investors. At the same time, it is planned to further apply tax incentive measures for investment, implement anti-crisis tax measures, and increase the efficiency of the tax administration system.

Income tax

As a measure to support business, taking into account the changed value of fixed assets, the threshold value of the value of depreciable property will be increased (up to 100 thousand rubles). This measure will allow the cost of inexpensive equipment to be written off as expenses at a time at the time of its commissioning, and not through the depreciation mechanism.

In order to support organizations in diverting working capital to pay advance payments for income tax within the quarter, as well as to actually reduce the administrative burden on business and tax authorities, the threshold for revenue will be increased, which allows making advance payments for income tax only at the end of the quarter .

VAT

In order to counter illegal VAT refunds and understatement of the tax base, it is proposed:

• exempt operations for the sale of waste paper from taxation;
• establish an obligation, during the reorganization of a legal entity, to restore VAT on property transferred to a legal successor who is not a VAT payer;
• clarify the amount of VAT subject to recovery by the buyer in case of transfer of advance payments;
• clarify the procedure for determining the tax base when selling property rights to non-residential premises (except for garages and parking spaces);
• introduce the obligation of the taxpayer to restore the VAT accepted for deduction on the advance payment if the delivery did not take place within a certain time.

Tax control

From January 1, 2016, three-year “supervisory holidays” will be introduced for organizations that have not had serious violations of established business rules for three years. All requirements for specific types of activities will be streamlined, systematized and made publicly available. This will allow us to move on to a comprehensive set of rules that will be provided to the entrepreneur when starting the most common types of activities.

When organizing extra-budgetary activities, autonomous institutions will likely have to take into account the shift in consumer demand for services in the economy segment.

In order to provide the taxpayer with the opportunity to receive information about the tax consequences of a transaction that he is planning to make, it is proposed to introduce institute of preliminary tax clarification(control), which already operates successfully in foreign legal systems. Such an institution will help to significantly reduce tax risks, will play a significant role in stimulating business activity by increasing the stability and certainty of the legal regulation of taxation, and will provide the taxpayer with a guarantee in relations with the tax authority, since the completeness and reliability of the information provided by the taxpayer will free him from the risk of tax sanctions being applied to him .

However, along with the need to create comfortable administrative conditions for conscientious taxpayers, an important task remains the work to tighten measures aimed at countering the use of tax evasion schemes and illegal reimbursement from the budget by unscrupulous taxpayers. Changes will be made to the Tax Code of the Russian Federation in terms of introducing a legal mechanism to counter tax abuses in the form of taxpayers using formally legal actions with the main goal of not paying taxes or paying them in a smaller amount. Such changes will not affect conscientious taxpayers and will contribute to the creation of normal business conditions and a competitive environment for those who do not use aggressive tax optimization mechanisms.

Mandatory non-tax payments and fiscal burden on business

The business community is concerned about other obligatory payments, which are not formally subject to regulation by legislation on taxes and fees or insurance premiums, but, due to their obligatory nature, form a significant part of the total burden on business. Under the conditions of a moratorium on increasing the tax burden, issues related to regulating the rates of these payments come to the fore.

With regard to non-tax payments, the Ministry of Finance considers it advisable to introduce a moratorium until 2019 and at the same time keep unchanged the rates and level of administrative burden on entrepreneurs in relation to non-tax payments that are provided for by current regulations and that are currently levied.

Conclusion

What can autonomous institutions expect in the coming year? The likelihood of hyperinflation for 2016 is low, since 2015 was relatively calm, and the sources of covering the budget deficit in 2016 in the form of reserve fund funds have been identified. Therefore, only in the event of a significant deviation from the planned parameters (in particular, exchange prices for energy resources), negative consequences are possible that will force the Government of the Russian Federation to start the “printing press”.

More likely, the regime of saving public resources will intensify. Autonomous institutions may have to prove their effectiveness in the face of competition for budget funds. With regard to the prospects for the extra-budgetary activities of the AU, it can be assumed that against the backdrop of salary cuts, staff reductions in commercial organizations and a simultaneous increase in retail prices, buyers will abandon the services of the expensive segment. Consequently, institutions will have to take into account the shift in consumer demand and focus more on their modest needs, which correspond to economy class services.

For example, for small businesses, three-year “supervisory holidays” are provided for by Federal Law No. 246-FZ dated July 13, 2015.

Currently, when establishing facts of abuse of rights by a taxpayer, tax authorities use Resolution of the Plenum of the Supreme Arbitration Court of the Russian Federation dated October 12, 2006 No. 53 “On the assessment by arbitration courts of the validity of the taxpayer receiving a tax benefit.”

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND SCIENCE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

FEDERAL STATE BUDGET EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTION OF HIGHER PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION

"MOSCOW STATE MECHANICAL ENGINEERING UNIVERSITY, TET (MAMI)"

/UNIVERSITY OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING/

INSTITUTE OF ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT

Department of State and Municipal Administration

topic: “The main directions of budget policy for 2016 and for the planned years 2017 and 2018”

Main directions of budget policy for 2016 and for the planning period of 2017 and 2018………………...…3

Conditions for implementing budget policy in the current year and

in 2016 – 2018……………………………………………………………………..………..4

Main characteristics of the draft federal budget for

2016 - 2018………………………………………………………………………………7

The main provisions taken as a basis when forming the revenue forecast for the draft federal budget for

2016 - 2018……………………………………………………….……………………..8

Conclusion……………………………………………………………..17

List of sources…………………………………….………………18

1. Main directions of budget policy for 2016 and for the planning period of 2017 and 2018.

The main directions of budget policy for 2016 and for the planning period of 2017 and 2018 were developed in accordance with Article 165 of the Budget Code of the Russian Federation, taking into account the results of the implementation of budget policy in the period up to 2015.

When preparing the Main Directions of Budget Policy, the provisions of the Address of the President of the Russian Federation to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation dated December 4, 2014, decrees of the President of the Russian Federation dated May 7, 2012, and the Main Directions of Activities of the Government of the Russian Federation for the period until 2018 (approved by the Chairman of the Government of the Russian Federation) were taken into account D.A. Medvedev May 14, 2015), Programs for increasing the efficiency of public (state and municipal) finance management for the period until 2018 (Order of the Government of the Russian Federation dated December 30, 2013 No. 2593-r), state programs of the Russian Federation, and also the Main directions of tax policy for 2016 and the planning period of 2017 and 2018.

A distinctive feature of the Main Directions of Budget Policy is the reflection of ongoing activities as a result of the implementation of a set of measures presented in the Plan of Priority Measures to Ensure Sustainable Economic Development and Social Stability in 2015, approved by Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated January 27, 2015 No. 98-r.

The purpose of the Main Directions of Budget Policy is to determine the conditions adopted for drawing up the draft federal budget for 2016 and for the planning period of 2017 and 2018 (hereinafter referred to as the draft federal budget for 2016 - 2018), approaches to its formation, the main characteristics and projected parameters of the federal budget and other budgets of the budget system of the Russian Federation.

2. Conditions for the implementation of budget policy in the current year and in 2016–2018.

In 2015, the economic situation worsened compared to the previous year. In January-May 2015 (relative to January-May 2014), GDP decreased by 3.2%, investment in fixed capital - by 4.8%, industrial production - by 2.3%, real disposable cash income - by 3.0%.

Table 2.1.

Main macroeconomic indicators for 2016 and the planning period of 2017 and 2018

	Law 384-FZ*	Law 93-FZ**	Law 384-FZ			Law 384-FZ
Urals oil prices, dollars/barrel.
Gas prices (average contract prices including CIS countries), dollars/thousand cube m
GDP, billion rubles
GDP growth, %
Investments, billion rubles
Import volume (for the range of goods taken into account by the Federal Customs Service of Russia), billion US dollars
Export volume (for the range of goods taken into account by the Federal Customs Service of Russia), billion US dollars
Profit of profitable organizations, billion rubles
Inflation (CPI), % compared to December of the previous year
Dollar exchange rate, rubles per US dollar
Payroll fund, billion rubles

The base case macroeconomic forecast assumes a slight acceleration in growth world economy(from 3.4% in 2015 to 3.6% in 2018).

Despite geopolitical tensions and the relatively low level of oil prices, economic growth is predicted to resume as early as 2016 (at 2.3-2.4% per year).

The growth of industry and real disposable income of the population will also resume, which will contribute to increased investment activity and consumer demand.

In the medium-term forecast, there is a slowdown in the share of retail trade turnover in GDP. At the same time, the decline in the share of retail trade turnover to GDP will be affected by the fall in both real disposable income of the population in 2015 (-7.8%), followed by a moderate increase in 2018 of +2.8%, and real wages in 2015 (-9.8%), followed by an increase in 2018 (+4.2%). The standard of living of the population will also be characterized by an increase in the overall unemployment rate in conditions of declining business activity in the economy. At the same time, the growth in unemployment will be insignificant (6.0% in 2015 versus 5.4% in 2014) and will decrease by 2018 (5.7%).

Foreign economic conditions in 2015 are characterized by a significant decrease in oil prices and a decrease in the consumer opportunities of Russian buyers of imported products. In 2015 - 2018, the trade balance will remain in the positive zone and grow. At the same time, in 2015 the real growth in exports of goods will exceed the real growth in imports of goods, and in 2016 - 2018 the situation will change.

To minimize the threat of imbalance in the budgets of the budget system of the Russian Federation, it is necessary to continue to use the “conservative” version of the forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation when determining the main characteristics of budgets.

Thus, fears associated with a decrease in prices for the main goods of Russian exports, an increase in inflation ahead of target values, devaluation of the ruble, a slowdown in the overall pace of socio-economic development, and the persistence of an unfavorable external environment caused by sanctions imposed by a number of states were realized.

At the same time, a number of other factors that were relevant in past periods remain important in the medium term.

The strengthening of geopolitical tensions in the world, which may further complicate the access of Russian companies to the global capital market, lead to a weakening of the ruble and a new round of growth in consumer prices, a decrease in business and consumer activity.

In addition, there remains a risk of disruption of gas export supplies through Ukraine, as well as the implementation of restrictions aimed at reducing the energy dependence of European countries on supplies from Russia. These factors may reduce the expected GDP dynamics.

There is a lot of uncertainty around oil prices. Under the influence of falling oil prices, investment plans of oil sector companies are being reduced, which negatively affects oil supply in the medium term.

If the price of oil falls further below the forecast, the ruble exchange rate may weaken, inflation and capital outflow will accelerate, investment activity will weaken, and household incomes and consumer demand will decrease.

Another risk is inflation risk. This risk may materialize due to lower than expected oil prices and, as a result, a weakening of the ruble exchange rate, as well as due to a possible crop failure in Russia and in the world, rising prices in infrastructure sectors and a number of other factors.

The implementation of the base version of the forecast assumes maintaining high rates of lending growth throughout 2015 - 2018, which will support the restoration of investment and reduce the rate of net savings of the population from 2016.

Also, Russian industry may not be able to take advantage of the effect of the weakening ruble, the effect of counter-sanctions and not fully realize the possibilities of import substitution, economic diversification. This may happen due to existing infrastructure limitations and decreased investment. The realization of this risk will lead to a slowdown in economic growth relative to the forecast.

In the current demographic conditions, the question arises about low age requirements for granting the right to an old-age insurance pension.

At the same time, average life expectancy since 1995 has increased in the Russian Federation by 5.2 years for women and by 7 years for men. The average statistical period for men and women to receive a pension after its appointment also increases annually (the retirement age in the Russian Federation has not changed since 1932, since its establishment). Taking into account the emerging trends, an adequate response to the aging population may be to increase the retirement age.

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1 Project Main directions of budget policy for 2016 and for the planning period of 2017 and 2018 Main directions of budget policy for 2016 and for the planning period of 2017 and 2018 (hereinafter referred to as the Main directions of budget policy) were developed in accordance with Article 165 of the Budget Code of the Russian Federation (hereinafter referred to as the Budget Code) taking into account the results of the implementation of budget policy in the period up to 2015. When preparing the Main Directions of Budget Policy, the provisions of the Address of the President of the Russian Federation to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation dated December 4, 2014, decrees of the President of the Russian Federation dated May 7, 2012, and the Main Directions of Activities of the Government of the Russian Federation for the period until 2018 (approved by the Chairman of the Government of the Russian Federation) were taken into account D.A. Medvedev May 14, 2015), Programs for increasing the efficiency of public (state and municipal) finance management for the period until 2018 (Order of the Government of the Russian Federation dated December 30, 2013), state programs of the Russian Federation (hereinafter referred to as state programs) , as well as the main directions of tax policy for 2016 and the planning period of 2017 and 2018. A distinctive feature of the Main Directions of Budget Policy is the reflection of ongoing activities as a result of the implementation of a set of measures presented in the Plan of Priority Measures to Ensure Sustainable Economic Development and Social Stability in 2015, approved by Order of the Government of the Russian Federation dated January 27, 2015 No. 98-r. The purpose of the Main Directions of Budget Policy is to determine

2 2 conditions adopted for the preparation of the draft federal budget for 2016 and for the planning period of 2017 and 2018 (hereinafter referred to as the draft federal budget for the years), approaches to its formation, main characteristics and projected parameters of the federal budget and other budgets of the budget system of the Russian Federation . 1. Results of the implementation of budget policy in 2014 and the first half of 2015 The implementation of budget policy in 2014 and the first half of 2015 was carried out in qualitatively new economic conditions. The fall in prices for traditional Russian export goods, the introduction of economic sanctions and the slowdown in the potential growth rate of the Russian economy against the backdrop of accumulated structural imbalances determine external and internal conditions that do not correspond to the expectations that were laid down when forming the budget for the previous three-year period. In the context of rapid growth of volatility in the financial market at the end of 2014, the main task of economic policy became the preservation of financial stability. Budget policy also played an important role in this. Timely decisions to recapitalize the banking system and increase the state guarantee ceiling for retail deposits helped to strengthen confidence in the banking system. As a result, the situation in the financial market has stabilized, the volatility of exchange rate dynamics has noticeably decreased, the outflow of deposits from the banking system has been replaced by an influx, and the uncertainty in the devaluation expectations of economic agents has decreased, thanks to which a deeper and more lasting shock was ultimately avoided. As the situation in the financial system stabilized at the beginning of 2015, the emphasis of state economic policy shifted to mitigating the negative consequences of a sharp change in external conditions on the real sector of the economy. A package of priority measures to ensure

3 3 sustainable economic development and social stability in 2015, on the one hand, made it possible to dampen to some extent the effect of a sharp increase in interest rates for the most vulnerable sectors of the Russian economy, and in terms of social policy, to concentrate resources on supporting the most vulnerable sections of the population, pensioners. At the same time, an important role in the implementation of measures to support the economy and social sphere is given to the “anti-crisis fund” formed as part of the federal budget, the funds of which are used according to decisions of the Government of the Russian Federation for the implementation of additional measures to support sectors of the economy, small and medium-sized businesses, the labor market, single-industry municipal education, as well as social support for citizens. The adoption of a set of anti-inflationary measures in budget policy, the refusal to index wages and part of social benefits to inflation “warmed up” by the exchange rate, stopped the risks of an unwinding inflation spiral, acting as an “anchor” for inflation expectations in the economy. Thus, the timely implementation of the anti-crisis budget maneuver along with other elements of state economic policy made it possible to quickly stabilize the situation in the financial market and minimize the negative consequences for the real sector. Already at the turn of the first and second quarters, the Russian economy had almost completed structural adaptation to external shocks, and, accordingly, the negative impulse from the adjustment of domestic demand necessary for such an adjustment was exhausted. By the second half of the year, as inflation expectations continued to decline amid a conservative policy of indexing budget expenditures, the negative cyclical impulse began to weaken. It is important to note that it was precisely the responsible approach to budget policy in previous years in terms of limiting expenses and saving excess oil and gas revenues that allowed

4 4 anti-crisis budgetary maneuver without reducing existing social obligations. In addition, the implementation of this approach was based on the use of a significant amount of accumulated reserves. This year, more than half of the resources of the Reserve Fund established as of January 1, 2015 may be spent to cover the federal budget deficit and shortfall in revenues from sources of deficit financing. The use of accumulated reserves, thus, makes it possible to mitigate the negative effect of changes in external conditions during adaptation period and provides time to develop the most effective plan for bringing the level and structure of budget expenditure obligations in line with the budgetary capabilities emerging at a lower level. In order to ensure long-term balance and sustainability of budgets, determine financial opportunities for the implementation of government programs, assess budget risks and timely develop measures to minimize them, since 2015 the Budget Code has included a requirement to develop and submit to the legislative bodies simultaneously with the draft budget a draft long-term budget forecast . The results of the implementation of budget policy in 2014 include the fact that, starting from 2014, a transition was made to the principle of planning and execution of the federal budget based on state programs. The coverage of federal budget expenditures by government program indicators amounted to about 57% (expenses to ensure the country's defense capability, the development of the Crimean Federal District, interbudgetary transfers to the budget of the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation, the activities of legislative and judicial bodies and a number of other expenses remained uncovered). In 2014, changes were made to the regulatory framework for the development and implementation of state programs, providing for the reflection

5 5 in the approved part of the state program, information on the financial support for its implementation from the budgets of state extra-budgetary funds of the Russian Federation, taking into account when planning budgetary allocations for the future the results of the implementation of state programs for the previous year, inclusion in state programs of conditions and methods for calculating interbudgetary subsidies, as well as the introduction of a procedure for proactive coordination of state programs by all interested government bodies and organizations. In order to integrate the processes of budget formation and government programs, changes were made to the Budget Code, establishing the simultaneous submission to the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation (hereinafter referred to as the State Duma) of the draft federal budget for the next financial year and planning period and draft passports (changes in passports) of state programs. Along with this, it has been established that, starting from 2016, the formation and execution of budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in a “program” format. At the same time, the issue of drawing up local budgets of municipalities on the basis of municipal programs is referred to the powers of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation. In order to methodologically support the transition to the preparation and execution of budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and local budgets on the basis of state (municipal) programs, the Ministry of Finance of Russia has prepared and sent relevant methodological recommendations to the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Analysis of the effectiveness of budget expenditures in the context of the main activities of state programs, as well as the development of a coordinated position on their adjustment and redistribution of funding for the implementation of individual activities in favor of those activities that meet the criteria for the greatest efficiency and ensure accelerated socio-economic development of Russia, have become key areas

6 6 activities of the Government Commission on optimization and increasing the efficiency of budget expenditures in 2014 and the first half of 2015. As part of solving the problem of creating conditions for improving the quality of state and municipal services, work continued to create incentives for a more rational and economical use of budget funds. In this part, in order to unify and systematize state (municipal) services provided by state (municipal) institutions, Resolution of the Government of the Russian Federation dated February 26, 2014 151 was adopted, according to which basic (sectoral) lists of state and municipal services and works are formed and maintained federal executive authorities in the state integrated information system for public finance management “Electronic Budget”, access to which is provided through the Unified Portal of the Budget System of the Russian Federation (hereinafter referred to as the Unified Portal) (By the beginning of 2015, 29 basic (industry) lists of state and municipal services and In accordance with them, in order to ensure uniform approaches to defining state (municipal) services, the possibility of their comparison and analysis by volume, quality and other indicators, departmental lists of state and municipal services and works should be formed in 2015. In order to provide methodological support for further work with these Lists, the Ministry of Finance of Russia sent Methodological Recommendations to the federal executive authorities on establishing general requirements for the procedure for calculating the volume of financial support for the implementation of state (municipal) assignments for the provision of state (municipal) services (performance of work) involving

7 7 the use of standards (standards) established by law for the provision of state (municipal) services and an approximate form of the specified act. As part of measures to improve the efficiency of budget expenditures, work was carried out to create a regulatory framework in the field of public procurement. Legal acts have been adopted regulating the standardization of costs for ensuring the functions of government bodies and government institutions. In order to increase control over the use of targeted funds and increase the liquidity of the federal budget account, in 2015, by decision of the Government of the Russian Federation, procedures were introduced for the provision of funds from the federal budget in the form of subsidies to legal entities (with the exception of subsidies to federal budgetary and autonomous institutions, subsidies to federal state unitary enterprises for making capital investments), budget investments and contributions to the authorized capitals of legal entities, as well as advance payments under certain government contracts for the supply of goods (works, services), the amount of which exceeds 1 billion rubles, subject to transactions with them on personal accounts in the Federal Treasury. In 2015, the list of interbudgetary transfers to the budgets of constituent entities of the Russian Federation was significantly expanded, the transfer of which from the federal budget is carried out within the amount necessary to pay monetary obligations for the expenses of recipients of budget funds of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation, the source of financial support for which is interbudgetary transfers. In order to formulate a responsible budget policy and improve the quality of financial management of state authorities in the preparation of regulatory legal acts that affect the expenses and revenues of the budgets of the budget system of the Russian Federation, amendments were made to the acts of the Government of the Russian Federation establishing

8 8 requirements for the form of financial and economic justification for decisions proposed for adoption by the draft relevant act, and by order of the Ministry of Finance of Russia dated March 19, 2015 42n, the specified form was approved. The creation of new mechanisms for financing infrastructure development contributed to increasing the efficiency of resource management. As of June 1, 2015, by order of the Government of the Russian Federation dated November 5, 2013, eleven self-sustaining infrastructure projects were approved, providing for financing from the National Welfare Fund (hereinafter referred to as the NWF) in the total amount of 815.0 billion rubles, seven of which are from the NWF a total of 352.1 billion rubles (8.8% of the NWF volume) have already been allocated. In addition, a unified electronic form for justifying federal budget expenditures for financing investment projects, “Passport of a Comprehensive Investment Project,” has been developed. This form describes the structure of federal budget expenditures regarding the implementation of a complex investment project and allows us to minimize one of the significant risks that arise when implementing infrastructure projects - the creation of unclaimed infrastructure or its low load. In June 2014, the Government of the Russian Federation changed the rules for investing NWF funds, increasing from 40% to 60% the limit of NWF funds that can be used to finance infrastructure projects in the Russian Federation. Against the backdrop of the changing conditions of the foreign economic environment, an important task in the field of interbudgetary regulation was assistance in ensuring the balance of regional and local budgets and reducing the risks of non-fulfillment of priority expenditure obligations. In 2014, the distribution of subsidies to equalize budgetary security was carried out taking into account changes in the income of subjects

9 9 of the Russian Federation in connection with the formation of consolidated groups of taxpayers. When implementing in 2014 the provisions of the decrees of the President of the Russian Federation dated May 7, 2012, the Ministry of Finance of Russia monitored the balance of the consolidated budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and, based on its results, measures were taken to provide additional financial assistance to the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. In 2014, Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of September 30, 2014 No. 999 “On the formation, provision and distribution of subsidies from the federal budget to the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation” was adopted, establishing new general rules for the provision of interbudgetary subsidies, which provide for tougher discipline of the main managers of federal budget funds for provision of subsidies, as well as the introduction of measures of financial responsibility of constituent entities of the Russian Federation for violation of the terms of agreements on their provision. In 2014, for the first time, a single subvention was provided from the federal budget to the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, formed on the basis of 9 subventions, the list of which was approved by order of the Government of the Russian Federation dated August 17, 2013. In recent years, the provision of budget loans from the federal budget to the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation has been ensured to partially cover the budget deficits of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in order to partially replace the debt obligations of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation on loans from credit organizations and securities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation on the terms of the implementation of a number of measures recommended by the Ministry of Finance of Russia maintaining the balance of regional budgets, including: maintaining the budget deficit of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation at the level approved for the year the loan was provided, and its gradual reduction

10 10 by January 1, 2017, up to 10% of the amount of budget revenue of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation, excluding the volume of gratuitous receipts for 2016; a gradual reduction in the share of the total volume of debt obligations of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation on loans from credit organizations and securities of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation by January 1, 2017 to the level of 50% of the amount of budget revenues of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation without taking into account gratuitous receipts for 2016. In 2015, the Federal Treasury continued work on providing budget loans to replenish the balances in the accounts of the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation (local budgets), and is also carrying out an experiment on providing budget loans to municipalities. Based on the results of monitoring the assessment of the quality of regional financial management for 2013, the results of the assessment and recommendations for improving the quality of regional financial management were sent to the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. These materials included the basic principles of forming the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation within the framework of existing trends in the slowdown in economic growth, the main directions for increasing revenues and optimizing budget expenditures of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, as well as the main directions for optimizing the sources of financing the regional budget deficit, managing the public debt of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Also in 2014, “Methodological recommendations to government bodies of constituent entities of the Russian Federation and local governments on regulating interbudgetary relations at the regional and municipal levels” were developed and communicated to the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and municipalities. These methodological recommendations are aimed at creating conditions for the effective implementation of the powers of state authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and local governments in the field of interbudgetary relations

11 11 taking into account the new approaches established by the Federal Law of November 24, 2014 375-FZ “On amendments to certain legislative acts of the Russian Federation in connection with the improvement of interbudgetary relations” and the Federal Law of November 29, 2014 383-FZ “On amendments to the Budget Code of the Russian Federation." In connection with the change in 2014 in the organization of local self-government, which provides for the possibility of forming, by decision of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation, new types of municipalities (urban district with intra-city division and intra-city district), as well as the redistribution of issues of local importance between municipal districts and rural settlements, into budget legislation The Russian Federation has introduced changes to include the inclusion of new types of municipal budgets into the budget system of the Russian Federation from 2015, the creation of conditions to ensure the balance of the budgets of municipal districts and rural settlements and clarifying approaches to interbudgetary regulation and the organization of interbudgetary relations at the regional and municipal levels. In order to implement the Federal Constitutional Law of March 21, 2014 6-FKZ “On the admission of the Republic of Crimea to the Russian Federation and the formation of new entities within the Russian Federation - the Republic of Crimea and the federal city of Sevastopol”, measures were taken to: provide financial assistance in 2014 the Republic of Crimea and the federal city of Sevastopol in the form of subsidies to support measures to ensure the balance of the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation; integration of the budget system of the Republic of Crimea and the federal city of Sevastopol into the budget system of the Russian Federation (implementation of the “road map” for the integration of the budget system of the Republic of Crimea and the federal city of Sevastopol into the budget system

12 12 of the Russian Federation), including assistance in forming the budgets of the Republic of Crimea and the federal city of Sevastopol and local budgets for 2015 in accordance with the legislation of the Russian Federation. One of the ways to increase the efficiency of budget expenditures is to improve the quality of work of control bodies. In order to introduce a unified methodology for implementing internal state (municipal) financial control and internal financial audit, Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated March 17, 2014 No. 193 approved the Rules for the implementation by the main managers (managers) of federal budget funds (the budget of the state extra-budgetary fund of the Russian Federation), the main administrators (administrators) of federal budget revenues (budget of the state extra-budgetary fund of the Russian Federation), chief administrators (administrators) of sources of financing the federal budget deficit (budget of the state extra-budgetary fund of the Russian Federation), internal financial control and internal financial audit, and also developed methodological recommendations for the implementation of internal financial control and methodological recommendations for the implementation of internal financial audit. In addition, changes were made to the rules for the exercise by Rosfinnadzor of control powers in the financial and budgetary sphere, aimed at improving control procedures in terms of ordering unscheduled inspections, delimiting procedures for the execution of control measures, as well as ensuring a new power of Rosfinnadzor to inspect the activities of regional and municipal bodies internal state (municipal) financial control for control in the field of procurement.

13 13 As part of the work to improve the contract system in the field of procurement, new provisions of the Code of Administrative Offenses have been developed, establishing the specific composition of financial violations in the field of procurement and the application of sanctions for them (maximum fines, disqualification), which are now classified as ineffective use of budget funds. Since 2014, the large-scale creation and implementation of components of the state integrated information system for public finance management “Electronic Budget” (hereinafter referred to as the “Electronic Budget” system) into the budget process began. A transition to electronic legally significant document flow has been made as part of the formation of the federal budget and maintaining a consolidated budget list of the federal budget between the Ministry of Finance of Russia and all the main administrators of federal budget funds, as well as bodies ensuring the coordination of decision-making. Access to budget data is provided to the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation and the Office of the Government of the Russian Federation. A new procedure has been introduced for the formation and maintenance of a consolidated budget list of the federal budget and limits on budget obligations based on justifications for budgetary allocations. This made it possible to improve the quality and validity of decisions made to amend the consolidated budget schedule and limits of budget obligations, the relevance of information characterizing the quantitative indicators of the implementation of state programs in the context of their subprograms and activities, as well as non-program activities of federal executive authorities. The process has been automated and object-by-object accounting of budget execution under the federal targeted investment program (hereinafter referred to as FAIP) has been introduced. This made it possible to reduce the time for making decisions on making changes to data on FAIP objects, leading to changes to the consolidated budget list of the federal budget and budget limits

14 14 obligations for more than 20 days (or 20%), minimize the time frame for generating reports, and also ensure the reliability of information on the cash execution of the FAIP. In order to expand the boundaries of public control over the efficiency of federal budget expenditures, starting from 2014, the Unified Portal has ensured the formation and maintenance of a register of agreements (contracts) on the provision of all types of subsidies to legal entities, individual entrepreneurs, individuals - producers of goods (works, services), budget investments to legal entities that are not federal government agencies and federal state unitary enterprises, subsidies, subventions, other interbudgetary transfers that have a designated purpose, to the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. In 2014, work continued to improve the openness and clarity of budgets. Its ultimate goal is to build an “end-to-end” system of openness in the activities of government bodies, the most important priorities of which include increasing information openness and clarity of government actions, providing government bodies with open data, ensuring transparency and accountability of government spending, procurement and investment, and implementing an effective system of public control . In 2014, a “Budget for Citizens” was developed for the draft federal law on the federal budget for 2015 and the planning period of 2016 and 2017, with special attention paid to the inclusion of socially significant projects in this document and the identification of target groups of citizens for whom the information is intended , the use of new approaches to information visualization, the availability of information on areas of spending within government programs. In the “Open Budget” direction of the federal executive authorities, a unified module layout was developed

15 15 “Open Budget” of the department, posted on its official website and on the Unified Portal. The purpose of the module is to inform citizens about the directions of spending funds of each department. In 2014, the Russian Ministry of Finance for the second time conducted a comprehensive analysis of the activities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation to increase the transparency of budgets and the budget process. Compared to 2013, the number of regions that have prepared “budgets for citizens”, either in the format of brochures and presentation materials, or have developed corresponding information portals, has increased from 46 to 77. The results of work to increase the openness of budget data are reflected in the prepared Report on best practices in area of ​​the federal, regional and local budgets for citizens, posted on the website of the Ministry of Finance of Russia. In 2014, changes were adopted to the Budget Code aimed at systematizing and increasing the transparency of the budget process and coming into force on January 1, 2016: the number of grounds for making changes to the consolidated budget list at the initiative of the State Duma was optimized; provision is made for the formation and maintenance in the “Electronic Budget” system of registers of sources of income of budgets of the budget system of the Russian Federation, which will allow systematizing payments that are sources of formation of income of budgets of the budget system of the Russian Federation, including payments for the provision of state and municipal services, to ensure the correctness of the formation of primary accounting records documents on the accrual of income and orders for the transfer of funds; the code for the classification of operations of the general government sector has been excluded from the classification codes, since detailing by these codes leads to a significant amount of budget information that is not required for operations related to the accounting and distribution of income

16 16 budgets, implementation of budget expenditures, accounting for sources of financing budget deficits. 2. Conditions for the implementation of budget policy in the current year and in the following years In 2015, the economic situation worsened compared to the previous year. In January-May 2015 (relative to January-May 2014), GDP decreased by 3.2%, investment in fixed assets - by 4.8%, industrial production by 2.3%, real disposable cash income by 3. 0%. The macroeconomic indicators used in drawing up the draft federal budget for the years differ significantly from the indicators that formed the basis for the formation of the federal budget for 2015 and the planning period of 2016 and 2017 (Table 2.1.), since they did not take into account the changes that occurred in the second half of 2014 of the year (including the decline in oil prices that occurred in the fourth quarter of 2014, the weakening of the ruble, and the acceleration of growth in consumer prices). Main macroeconomic indicators for 2016 and the planning period of 2017 and 2018 Table year 2016 2017 2018 Law Law Law Law Forecast 384-ФЗ* 93-ФЗ** 384-ФЗ 384-ФЗ Forecast Forecast Urals oil prices, dollars/barrel Gas prices (average contract prices including CIS countries), dollars/thousand cube m GDP, billion rubles GDP growth, % 1.2-3.0 2.3 2.3 3.0 2.3 2.4 Investments, billion rubles Import volume (for the range of goods taken into account by the Federal Customs Service of Russia), billion US dollars 299.2 182.3 305.5 221.8 316.6 235.5 248.6

17 year 2016 2017 2018 Law Law Law Law Forecast 384-FZ* 93-FZ** 384-FZ 384-FZ Forecast Forecast Export volume (for the range of goods taken into account by the Federal Customs Service of Russia), billion dollars 494.2 333.8 498.2 376.5 507.3 402.2 431.0 USA Profit of profitable organizations, billion rubles Inflation (CPI), % compared to December of the previous year 5.5 12.2 4.5 7.0 4.0 6.3 5.1 Dollar exchange rate, rubles per US dollar 37.7 61.5 38.7 56.8 39.5 54.5 53.2 Payroll fund, billion rubles *hereinafter Federal Law of December 1, 2014 384 -FZ “On the federal budget for 2015 and for the planning period of 2016 and 2017” ** hereinafter - Federal Law of April 20, 2015 93-FZ “On Amendments to the Federal Law “On the Federal Budget for 2015 and for the planning period of 2016 and 2017" The basic scenario of the macroeconomic forecast assumes a slight acceleration in global economic growth (from 3.4% in 2015 to 3.6% in 2018). The US economy will be characterized by an improving situation in the labor market and an increase in consumer demand, however, the limiting factors will be the increase in base rates of the US Federal Reserve System and the dynamics of demographic processes. Thus, US economic growth will decrease from 3.1% in 2015 to 2.7% in 2018. The eurozone economy will grow between 1.3-1.4% annually. The main limiting factor will be the high level of unemployment. At the same time, the monetary policy of the European Central Bank will have a stimulating effect. The Chinese economy will continue to slow, from 6.8% in 2015 to 6.0% in 2018. The base scenario assumes the continuation of sanctions from the United States and the European Union against Russia and counter-sanctions from Russia throughout the entire forecast period. Consequently, the Russian economy will develop in conditions

18 18 limited access to the global capital market, continued capital outflow. The average annual price for Urals oil, which forms the basis for the formation of the federal budget, will be 50 US dollars per barrel in 2015 (versus 100 US dollars per barrel in the forecast of December 1, 2014) and by 2018 will increase to 70 US dollars per barrel. barrel. Despite geopolitical tensions and the relatively low level of oil prices, economic growth is predicted to resume as early as 2016 (at 2.3-2.4% per year). The growth of industry and real disposable income of the population will also resume, which will contribute to increased investment activity and consumer demand. The savings rate will increase from 16.8% of GDP in 2015 to 20.7% of GDP in 2018, and domestic demand will increase by 11.1% over the years against a decrease of 9.5% in 2015. Industrial production will grow at a rate of 1.5-1.9% in 2015 after a fall in 2015. Manufacturing industries, as in previous years, will grow faster than the production of the fuel and energy complex. The sectors of the consumer complex will grow at the highest rates, from the engineering industries - production of vehicles and equipment, from the intermediate demand industries - chemical production. The level of consumer prices, influenced by the weakening of the ruble and food counter-sanctions, accelerated throughout the first quarter of 2015 and amounted to 16.9% year-on-year at the end of March. However, starting from the second quarter of 2015, a slowdown in price growth began, which will be observed until the end of the year. According to the current estimate of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, at the end of 2015 the increase in consumer prices will be 11.9%, and by 2018 it will decrease to 5.1%. In the medium-term forecast, there is a slowdown in the share of retail trade turnover in GDP, that is, a weakening impact on

19 19 general economic dynamics of domestic consumer demand, which is one of the main factors in maintaining economic growth. At the same time, the decline in the share of retail trade turnover to GDP will be affected by the fall in both real disposable income of the population in 2015 (-7.8%), followed by a moderate increase in 2018 in the amount of +2.8%, and real wages in 2015 year (-9.8%), followed by an increase in 2018 (+4.2%). The standard of living of the population will also be characterized by an increase in the overall level of unemployment in the context of a decline in business activity in the economy. At the same time, the growth in unemployment will be insignificant (6.0% in 2015 versus 5.4% in 2014) and will decrease by 2018 (5.7%). Foreign economic conditions in 2015 are characterized by a significant decline in oil prices and a decrease in consumer opportunities for Russian buyers of imported products. In years to come, the trade balance will remain in the positive zone and grow. At the same time, in 2015 the real growth in exports of goods will exceed the real growth in imports of goods, and in the coming years the situation will change. At the same time, the period under review carries significant uncertainty, which can adjust the forecasted projections. The realization of any of the risks may lead to a shortage of federal budget revenues, sources of deficit financing, or the need to increase certain areas of spending. To minimize the threat of imbalance in the budgets of the budget system of the Russian Federation, it is necessary to continue to use the “conservative” version of the forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation when determining the main characteristics of budgets. This approach not only makes it possible to increase the accuracy of budget planning, but also to prevent some of the risks associated with accepting additional expenditure obligations that are not backed by financial resources.

20 20 To a significant extent, both the composition and significance of macroeconomic and budgetary risks have undergone qualitative changes compared to last year’s budget cycle. Thus, fears associated with a decrease in prices for the main goods of Russian exports, an increase in inflation ahead of target values, the devaluation of the ruble, a slowdown in the overall pace of socio-economic development, and the persistence of an unfavorable external environment caused by sanctions imposed by a number of states were realized. Accordingly, the scenario conditions for the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2016 and for the planning period of 2017 and 2018 are already based on comparatively conservative estimates and hypotheses corresponding to the current situation, which significantly minimizes the conditions for the emergence of additional budgetary and macroeconomic risks. At the same time, a number of other factors that were relevant in past periods remain important in the medium term. A significant risk for the Russian economy continues to be posed by increased geopolitical tensions in the world, which could further complicate the access of Russian companies to the global capital market, lead to a weakening of the ruble and a new round of growth in consumer prices, a decrease in business and consumer activity. In addition, there remains a risk of disruption of gas export supplies through Ukraine, as well as the implementation of restrictions aimed at reducing the energy dependence of European countries on supplies from Russia. These factors may reduce the expected GDP dynamics. Great uncertainty exists around the price of oil. It is quite difficult to assess the relationship between supply and demand in the oil market in the medium term. On the one hand, new production technologies are being developed, a number of countries are increasing oil production (oil supply is growing). On the other hand, under the influence of lower oil prices, the

21 21 investment plans of oil sector companies, which negatively affects oil supply in the medium term. If the price of oil falls further below the forecast, the ruble exchange rate may weaken, inflation and capital outflow will accelerate, investment activity will weaken, and household incomes and consumer demand will decrease. Another risk is the inflation risk of failure to achieve the planned inflation level. This risk may materialize due to lower than expected oil prices and, as a result, a weakening of the ruble exchange rate, as well as due to a possible crop failure in Russia and in the world, rising prices in infrastructure sectors and a number of other factors. In an environment where inflation is highly dependent on the exchange rate, accelerated measures to suppress inflation may require further increases in interest rates and a reduction in bank credit, which will negatively affect economic activity. At the same time, the implementation of the base version of the forecast assumes maintaining high rates of lending growth throughout the years, which will support the restoration of investment and reduce the rate of net savings of the population from 2016. In addition, risks for the inflation forecast are the persistence of high inflation expectations, which may be facilitated by a possible increase in the growth rate of tariffs of natural monopolies, accelerated growth of nominal wages, and an increase in utility bills. Also, Russian industry may not be able to take advantage of the effect of the weakening ruble, the effect of counter-sanctions and may not fully realize the possibilities of import substitution and economic diversification. This may happen due to existing infrastructure limitations and decreased investment. The realization of this risk will lead to a slowdown in economic growth relative to the forecast.

22 22 In addition, the Russian economy and budget system will continue to be significantly influenced by the demographic factor, which is associated with a reduction in the working age population and an aging population. In addition to the growing burden on the budget in terms of spending on social policy, the reduction in the economically active population (by at least 200 thousand people annually) has a negative impact on the labor market, and there is a need to increase the supply of labor, including from older workers. In the current demographic conditions, the question arises about low age requirements for granting the right to an old-age insurance pension. At the same time, average life expectancy since 1995 has increased in the Russian Federation by 5.2 years for women and by 7 years for men. The average statistical period for men and women to receive a pension after its appointment also increases annually (the retirement age in the Russian Federation has not changed since 1932, since its establishment). Taking into account the emerging trends, an adequate response to the aging population may be to increase the retirement age. The listed risks may require, when they occur, the development of additional measures to minimize their negative consequences and the creation of an effective risk management system. 3. Goals and objectives of budget policy for the years The development and approval by the Government of the Russian Federation of the updated Main Directions of Activity for the period until 2018 predetermined the significant features of the implementation of budget policy in the planning period. The budget, as the main instrument of the state's economic policy, is intended to intensify structural changes in the economy in the coming years.

23 23 Currently, the fundamental prerequisites for the restructuring of the Russian economy are being formed. On the one hand, there is a redistribution of national income from the population to the corporate sector, which creates a financial base for potential investments. On the other hand, exchange rate adjustments and subsequent changes in the price level partly help correct some of the accumulated structural distortions by ensuring the movement of financial and labor resources into tradable sectors, where returns on invested capital have risen markedly. At the same time, due to severe resource constraints, both in terms of labor and financial resources, realizing the benefits that a weakening exchange rate provides is possible only through the redistribution of limited budget resources. In the absence of adaptation of the volumes of domestic demand by the state, the risk of further structural displacement of the private sector increases, which will inevitably lead to a decrease in the efficiency of resource allocation in the economy, and hence the prospects for its growth. Thus, the need for structural restructuring of the economy determines the need to bring the level of budget expenditures in line with new realities. The budget should not displace the private economy either in terms of spending or in terms of competition for resources in financial markets, therefore it is necessary to curtail one-time anti-crisis measures, which are being implemented this year as a reaction to external economic shocks. The basic tool for smoothing the dynamics of the nominal volume of budget expenditures should still be “budget rules”. Based on the principles of responsible budget policy and taking into account the provisions of budget legislation, it is proposed to reduce the total amount of federal budget expenditures compared to those approved in

24 24 the previous budget cycle with parameters only for the amount of conditionally approved expenses in 2016 and conditionally approved expenses exceeding 2.5% of total expenses in 2017, and calculate the amount of expenses for 2018 according to “budget rules”. This will make it possible to minimize fluctuations in the total volume of federal budget expenditures in nominal terms over the next three years, which, against the backdrop of the projected stabilization of oil prices and the restoration of economic activity, will ensure a gradual reduction in the federal budget deficit, the financing of which will likely require the use of almost all accumulated funds in the next three years. Reserve fund of funds. At the same time, limiting the growth rate of expenses in nominal terms when applying the approaches provided for by the legislation of the Russian Federation to the indexation of basic social payments (pensions, benefits, wages) is difficult to implement in the context of a one-time jump in inflation at the end of 2014 and beginning of 2015. Maintaining the current indexation mechanism will require an additional reduction in “unprotected” items of federal budget expenditures, which may lead to negative socio-economic consequences (for example, the need to increase the burden on employers by increasing insurance premium rates). Moreover, the current indexation mechanism creates risks of increasing structural imbalances in the economy: displacement of savings and investments by current consumption, private demand by government. In recent years, there has been a steady trend of slowing down the potential growth rates of the domestic economy and deepening existing structural imbalances, which was not least due to this factor. Thus, the current legislation of the Russian Federation provides for indexation of the insurance pension and fixed

25 25 payments to it from February 1 to the actual consumer price index and from April 1 based on the cost of one pension coefficient (in 2015 by 11.4%, in 2016 by 11.9%, in 2017 by 7.0% , in 2018 by 8.4%). At the same time, if the current order of indexation of insurance pensions and a fixed payment to it is maintained, there will be a significant increase in the state’s expenditure obligations for the payment of pensions, significantly exceeding the growth rate of income of both the federal budget and the budget of the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation. Thus, if interbudgetary transfers transferred from the federal budget to the budget of the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation within the framework of compulsory pension insurance in 2014 amounted to 2.0% of GDP, in 2015 already 2.7% of GDP, then in 2016 these transfers will increase to 3. 4% of GDP. Taking into account the indicated growth in interbudgetary transfers transferred from the federal budget to the budget of the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation, the share of federal budget expenditures on social policy in the total volume of federal budget expenditures in 2016 will be about 35%. In addition, one of the objectives of the strategy for the long-term development of the pension system of the Russian Federation, approved by order of the Government of the Russian Federation dated December 25, 2012, is to ensure a pension replacement rate of up to 40% of lost earnings. However, in the case of calculating the coefficient of replacement of lost earnings in accordance with the provisions of the International Labor Organization Convention 102 “On Minimum Standards of Social Security”, its value has already exceeded the forty percent level. Also, the current legislation of the Russian Federation provides for indexation to the level of inflation of wages, salaries (wages) of judges, prosecutors and employees of the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation, persons holding government positions in the Russian Federation, federal government civil servants and other categories of workers

26 26 federal government bodies, monetary allowances for military personnel and persons equivalent to them. It should be noted that the existing mechanism for indexing basic social payments contains obvious budgetary risks associated with the guarantee of not reducing their actual size, which in certain macroeconomic conditions (for example, in a situation of a large-scale external shock) can lead to an imbalance in the stability of the country’s budget system and significant risks of fulfilling existing expenditure obligations. In this regard, it is proposed not to reduce the state’s expenditure obligations to pay the insurance pension and the fixed payment to it, but to increase them at a slower pace in order to bring it to the target inflation level of 4%. Thus, it is proposed to index insurance pensions and the fixed payment to it once a year from February 1 by 5.5% in 2016, by 4.5% in 2017 and by 4.0% in 2018. At the same time, it is proposed to apply a similar level of indexation to all types of pensions, including pensions of persons discharged from military and equivalent service. In addition, in 2016 it is proposed to carry out additional indexation of benefits and social payments, taking into account the actual increase in consumer prices for 2015 in accordance with the Federal Law of April 6, 2015 68-FZ “On the suspension of the provisions of certain legislative acts of the Russian Federation regarding the indexation procedure salaries of state civil servants, military personnel and persons equivalent to them, official salaries of judges, payments, benefits and compensations and the recognition of the Federal Law “On suspension of Part 11 of Article 50 of the Federal Law “On the State Civil Service of the Russian Federation” as invalid in connection with Federal Law “On the Federal Budget for 2015 and the Planned

27 27 period 2016 and 2017.” In the next few years, the indexation of benefits and payments is expected to be carried out by 4.5% in 2017, 4.0% in 2018. Also in 2016, it is proposed to abandon the indexation of wages for civil servants and military personnel, and the issue of indexation in years for this category will be considered in subsequent budget cycles at the expense and within the limits of conditionally approved expenses. In addition, due to changes in socio-economic conditions previously taken into account when making decisions to increase wages for employees of scientific institutions, specialists in the field of education, healthcare, culture, and social services, in accordance with the decrees of the President of the Russian Federation of May 7, 2012. 597 “On measures to implement state social policy”, dated June 1, 2012. 761 “On the national strategy of action in the interests of children for the years”, dated December 28, 2012 “On some measures to implement state policy in the field of protection of orphans and children left without parental care”, the implementation of these decisions in the years is proposed to be carried out taking into account: clarification of the dynamics of wage growth in the Russian Federation; changes in indicators in accordance with federal statistical observation in order to use the indicator “average monthly accrued wages of employees in organizations, individual entrepreneurs and individuals (average monthly income from labor)” to monitor the implementation of the above decrees. The implementation of these approaches to the mechanism for indexing pensions, social payments, and salary (allowance) will require appropriate changes to the current legislation of the Russian Federation. A separate contribution to ensuring fiscal sustainability should be made by the draft budget forecast, developed for the first time in 2015.

Resolution dated October 29, 2010 38 On the main directions of the budget and tax policy of the Kamensky district for 2011-2013 In accordance with Article 184.2 of the Budget Code of the Russian Federation and Article

UDC 336.1 Makeikina S.M., Ph.D., Associate Professor Kudryashova M.Yu., Master's student of the Faculty of Economics of Moscow State University. N.P. Ogareva, Saransk. ON THE QUESTION OF FORMATION OF THE FEDERAL BUDGET IN AN UNSTABLE ECONOMY

GOVERNMENT OF THE CHECHEN REPUBLIC DECISION from $0. / /. Grozny On the main directions of budget policy and the main directions of tax policy of the Chechen Republic for 2016 and for the planned

COUNCIL OF DEPUTIES OF THE VOSKRESENSKOYE SETTLEMENT IN THE CITY OF MOSCOW DECISION 11.20.2015 204/32 On the forecast of socio-economic development of the Voskresenskoye settlement for 2016 and the planning period 2017-2018 Having considered

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APPROVED by order of the Financial Department of the Administration of the Andropovsky Municipal District of the Stavropol Territory dated October 20, 2016 88 (as amended by the order of the Financial Department of the Andropovsky Municipal District Administration

1 Interbudgetary relations in 2012 2014 Ministry of Finance of Russia Mf] 2 Budget message of the President of Russia on budget policy in 2012 2014 in the field of interbudgetary relations 1. Transition from 2012 to implementation

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"Run-shaped coordination" Vice-Governor of the Leningrad Region, Chairman of the Finance Committee R.I. Markov PROJECT GOVERNMENT OF THE LENINGRAD REGION DECREE OF 2015 ON IMPLEMENTATION MEASURES IN 2015

FORECAST of socio-economic development of the Chelyabinsk region for 2010 and the planning period of 2011 and 2012. The forecast of socio-economic development in accordance with the Budget Code is the basis

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On December 2015, Federal Law No. 359-FZ “On the Federal Budget for 2016” was adopted, establishing budget parameters calculated at an oil price of 50 USD per 1 barrel of Urals brand and with oil and gas revenues of 6.045 trillion. rubles (44% of the total budget):

Revenues - 13.738 billion rubles.

Expenses - 16.099 billion rubles.

In addition, the Federal Law establishes the following values ​​of the main economic indicators:

The revenue side of the budget will amount to 13,738.5 billion rubles (465,701.2 million rubles more than in 2015). It is planned to attract additional funds by introducing a number of changes to the current legislation, in particular, the fiscal burden on enterprises operating in the oil and gas sector will increase. In addition, the share of profits received by the Bank of Russia to be credited to the federal budget will increase to 90%;

The budget expenditure will amount to 16,098.6 billion rubles. In the coming year, a reduction in costs is expected due to the abolition of indexation of some types of social payments (for example, maternity capital, annual payments to persons with the status of Honorary Donor, pensions of working pensioners, etc.);

The estimated value of the Reserve Fund in 2016 will be 5,507.1 billion rubles. It is planned to use its funds to cover the budget deficit, which, according to the data provided, will amount to 2,360.2 billion rubles or 3.0% of GDP;

The amount of domestic public debt will be 8,817.8 billion rubles;

The size of external public debt will be 55.1 billion dollars; -

The inflation rate at the end of 2016 will be fixed at 6.4%;

By extending the moratorium on the formation of the funded part of the pension, it is expected to save about 342.2 billion rubles;

GDP will be 78,673 billion rubles, its growth rate is estimated at 0.7%;

Expenses for maintaining the army and defense complexes will amount to 2,886 billion rubles;

The estimated cost of education will be 579.8 billion rubles;

Expenditures on housing and communal services will fall to 78.8 billion rubles;

59.4 billion rubles will be spent on measures aimed at environmental protection;

Under the item "National Economy" the costs will amount to 2,540 billion rubles;

It is planned to spend 652.9 billion rubles on servicing state and municipal debt;

Expenses under the item “Interbudgetary transfers” will amount to 661.5 billion rubles;

Expenses for the implementation of social programs are set at 4,407 billion rubles;

Costs for the development of culture in the country will amount to 100 billion rubles;

National expenditures will amount to 1,141 billion rubles;

Costs for activities aimed at ensuring security (including the work of law enforcement officers) will amount to 2,031 million rubles.

Figure - 1 Structure of budget expenditures in 2016

In order to determine the direction of government policy in 2016, we can present the above economic indicators of the amount of costs as shares of the total amount of budget expenditures. The distribution of budget expenditures in 2016 is as follows:

7% - social policy;

2% - defense;

9 - national economy;

7% - law enforcement system;

2% - national issues;

2% - interbudgetary transfers;

1% - servicing public debt;

6% - education;

0% - healthcare;

6% - culture;

4% - physical education and sports;

4% - environmental protection.

The Russian government, together with the State Duma, approved the draft budget for 2016. Until now, in Russia the country's budget was adopted for three years. Members of the government introduced the law on a one-year budget to the State Duma due to the high volatility of financial and commodity markets. This step is also explained by the increased risk of reliability of forecast indicators for Russia’s socio-economic development and the accuracy of forecasting federal budget parameters.

The law signed by the president suspends certain provisions of the Budget Code until January 1, 2016. The document also provides for an increase in the terms of budget lending for regions from three to five years. This means that the Government is going to suspend the provisions of the Budget Code of the Russian Federation, which provide for a mandatory planning period for the federal level budget. Planning will consist only of forecasting socio-economic development and the main directions of budget, customs tariff, tax and monetary policy. This year, the budget forecast should be drawn up until 2030 inclusive, based on data prepared by the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economic Development.

Insufficient budget.

At the rate set by the government (64 rubles per 1 US dollar), the size of the Russian budget in 2016 will be $247.4 billion. At first glance, this figure looks very impressive. However, the amount of $247.4 billion is by no means significant, given that Sweden, Belgium and Mexico had approximately the same budget in 2008. That is, even if we do not take into account global inflation, financing in the Russian Federation can only be compared with third world countries, taking into account the country’s population.

For comparison: the US budget in 2016 will be $3,990 billion, which is 16 times more than in Russia or 8 times more per capita. At the same time, in recent years the United States has had the smallest budget deficit ($474 billion). What is noteworthy is that the amount of the American deficit is greater than the size of the entire Russian treasury.

Mistakes of past years.

According to experts, the mistakes of previous years were not taken into account in the new budget. In fact, there are absolutely no fundamental changes, savings levers or anti-crisis measures in it. The entire budget is based on the fact that over three years the average oil price will be 50-55 dollars per barrel, and the average exchange rate will be 62.5-63.3 rubles per dollar. If earlier the government predicted a gradual increase in the price of oil, now no one hopes for this. However, the budget is not at all designed for a possible decrease in the cost of “black gold”. And given the latest world events, experts have no doubt that very soon we will hear news from politicians about another reduction in oil prices.

Big expenses with little income.

Once again, Russia's expenses will exceed its income. According to average estimates, the budget deficit will be approximately 3%. By global standards, this figure is not catastrophic. For example, in the United States, cost overruns fluctuate at approximately the same level - 2.8%.

However, funds to cover the resulting deficit will be taken from the Reserve Fund, which will reduce it by 2/3 in just a year. Currently, the Reserve Fund contains 3,210 billion rubles, and in a year its size will decrease to 1,074 billion rubles. At the same time, it will be very difficult to return the funds spent, given that external borrowing is impossible due to the sanctions imposed on the state.

The government believes in the best.

The government promises that in 2016 inflation will drop to 5.1%. At the same time, in a year GDP should grow by at least 0.7%, in 2017 - by 1.9%, and in 2018 by 2.4%.

It should be noted that by global standards this is a rather modest level of growth. However, given the current and future economic situation in Russia, even such a slight improvement can be called an over-optimistic forecast. Today there is not a single resource left that could contribute to GDP growth. If oil used to be our trump card, now even the most optimistic experts do not count on it.

Moreover, next year the budget situation may worsen several times, because there is reason to believe that oil prices will fall even more, and Russia will face new sanctions. Firstly, some buyers will switch to Iran's oil reserves. Secondly, the war in Syria will end sooner or later. And thirdly, the economic situation of Russia is not in the best way affected by conflicts with Turkey, Ukraine and the Western world.

War budget.

The largest portion of Russian budget expenditures traditionally falls on two items - pensions ($66.1 billion) and state defense ($51.8 billion). Half of the country’s total budget is spent on these two areas alone. When developed countries experience an economic crisis and spending exceeds income, their governments reduce defense funding. In Russia, these figures are growing from year to year.

Before signing the budget, the government intended to reduce the provision of security forces by 165 billion rubles, but this decision was not supported by the State Duma. As a result, military spending for 2016 amounts to 4.17% of GDP.

For comparison: only the budgets of Saudi Arabia and the UAE have a large share of military support expenditures. But, firstly, the economic situation of these countries allows them to increase their own defense capabilities. And, secondly, these states border on countries on whose territory full-scale wars are being waged.

It is worth noting that by the standards of economically developed countries, defense funding at the level of 51.8 billion dollars is not a large indicator. For example, the United States spends 3.3% of its GDP on military expenditures, but allocates 11 times more funds for defense than in Russia.

Antisocial measures.

There are no positive social measures in the 2016 budget. The government promises to increase pensions twice within a year by 4% each time. At first glance, this seems like very good news. But given that indexation will in any case lag behind the planned inflation, the well-being of pensioners next year will worsen. In addition, in 2016, part of pension savings amounting to 342.2 billion rubles will be frozen.

Other changes affecting the social sphere of the state look even more disappointing. For example, funding for housing and communal services will decrease by 41.4%, falling from 132.3 billion to 78.8 billion rubles. Education funding will decrease by 7.9%, amounting to 579.8 billion rubles instead of the current 629.3 billion rubles.

However, the worst situation is with regard to the financing of the health care system. According to the approved budget, in 2016 473.7 billion rubles will be allocated for this area, which is 10.9% less than now (531.4 billion rubles in 2015).

In almost all developed countries, financing health care is one of the largest expenditure items. In the USA, for example, they spend 1006 billion dollars on medicine, while in the Russian Federation only 8.4 billion dollars are allocated. If we recalculate these indicators taking into account the size of the population in the states, it turns out that the US spends 54 times more on the health of one person than in Russia.

Russia's latest budget.

Taking into account the peculiarities of the Russian Federation budget for 2016, more and more experts are coming to a disappointing conclusion: the state estimate may become the last in the history of Russia. It is possible that within a year the state will be left without a budget, having used up all its reserves and entered into an active phase of default.

Already, the leadership of the countries has envisaged a budget policy plan for the Russian Federation for 2016-2018. The basics of this plan were developed in accordance with the patterns of budget allocation in previous years.

The policy is formed on the basis of priorities determined by the President of the Russian Federation, as well as presidential decrees and the draft budget for 2015. The budget distribution plan is different in that it expresses measures to ensure economic growth and the well-being of Russian citizens. The purpose of creating such a plan is to correctly formulate the budget, as well as draw up forecasts for the development of the country’s economy.

The formation of the wage fund for workers in future years and the growth of wages depends on the use by districts of funds from the budget in previous years.

In each region there is a norm for receiving budget revenues that could cover the costs of the economy and society.

For the period of budget formation from 2016 to 2018, the tax policy priorities are:

1. Creation of new production facilities.
2. Stimulating investments in the tax sphere.
3. Carrying out anti-crisis tax measures.
4. Support for small and medium-sized businesses.

Tax policy, which affects the income of this area, is aimed at increasing the flow of funds into the budget from individuals and legal entities. The new provisions of the budget plan include information on increasing wages for workers to the industry average level, as well as on the legalization of wage payments. Measures will be taken to reduce income tax debt.

Tax policy will also be aimed at the following actions:

• Registration of tax benefits for certain categories of the population.
• Improving the budget tax administration system.
• Taxation of property of individuals is possible only after identifying the cadastral value.
• Ensuring the growth of total wages in the regions.
• Legalization of any unregistered business activity.
• The fight against the population that deliberately evades paying taxes.

The main change in the tax sphere is the abolition of the temporary single income tax for certain types of activities. The repeal law will come into force on January 1, 2018.

Formation of budget policy in the sphere of citizens' incomes

The main directions in the field of budget policy for the period 2016-2018 were formed on the basis of forecasts for the economic and social development of each region and the state as a whole.

The following goals of budget policy can be distinguished:

1. All systems for forming regions will be balanced for effective operation.
2. Providing social support for certain categories of citizens.
3. Reducing costs for industrial sectors that do not generate significant income.
4. Full funding of hospitals, educational institutions and other government institutions.
5. Formation of new types of budget management of the country.
6. Ensuring open distribution of revenues and a transparent budget system of the country.
7. Creation of a unified information system for state financial management.

The state's task is to reduce spending on inefficient sectors of the economy and more efficiently use budget funds.

An important task is also to carry out changes in the social spheres of services; it is necessary to optimize the spheres of education and healthcare.

Budget policy for 2016-2018 involves assessing the performance of all local governments in the regions. The task of employees of such bodies is to ensure the balance of the budget allocated to them.

The current system of the country's budget policy requires clear control and coordination, and the creation of an effective strategy. Such strategies are already being drawn up by all municipal authorities of regions and cities. To effectively implement such a policy, it is necessary to improve the mechanisms for financial support for the work of all government organizations.

Future legislative plans also include:

1. Using a control system for planning the financial and economic activities of organizations.
2. Ensure control over the provision of paid services by municipal organizations.
3. Enter an assessment of the quality of each such service.
4. Introduce a unified electronic budget.

An electronic budget will allow you to control expenses and revenues of the treasury; all sources of income will be included in it.

Budget policy program in the field of education

The budget policy program for 2016-2018 should shape the relationship of municipal educational institutions with the state. This policy is aimed at solving the problem related to the financial provision of municipal and local budgets. The program also implies covering all expenses in the budget and eliminating the funding gap.

The program spells out the need to increase the efficiency of targeted and interbudgetary transfers, as well as reduce the debts of organizations. Paying off debts will be a long process, so it will be carried out gradually.

A very important task of budget policy for 2016-2018 will be to improve the performance of government agencies and reduce costs while maintaining the proper level of their maintenance. The policy is aimed at optimizing all expenses in various areas of activity, which will lead to an increase in funds in the state budget. At the same time, it is necessary to ensure a normal standard of living for citizens and gradually increase their monthly income.

The program is prescribed for 3 years; the basis for drawing up the plan was the experience of previous years, research by economists and sociologists, as well as legislative acts. It is also important to maintain an average debt burden and gradually reduce the internal debts of organizations and state-owned enterprises.