Exchange rates for today, August 25, 2018: The Central Bank of the Russian Federation lowered the dollar and euro rates for today.

Official dollar and euro exchange rates for today, August 25, 2018, Central Bank of the Russian Federation

The official dollar exchange rate set by the Bank of Russia on August 25 fell by 73 kopecks compared to Friday and amounted to 67.79 rubles, the euro exchange rate as of today was lowered by 84 kopecks - to 78.4 rubles.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for the week 2018 in Russia: expert opinion

Foreign investors are dumping the Russian currency because they fear that in six months or a year the dollar may cost 80-90 rubles, Konstantin Korishchenko, former deputy chairman of the Central Bank, former head of the MICEX exchange, and now head of the department of stock markets at RANEPA, said in an interview with Reuters.

According to the expert, it is precisely expectations of a new large-scale devaluation that explain the sale of Russian government bonds by non-residents.

According to the Central Bank, since April, foreign funds have shed $6.7 billion in federal loan bonds, setting a record for the entire time of available statistics (since 2012). But the OFZ problem itself is not that big, explains Korishchenko: non-residents hold securities worth 2 trillion rubles, while Russian banks have 4 trillion rubles of free money placed on deposits with the Central Bank or its bonds. This is a “safety cushion” that guarantees that “nothing catastrophic will happen directly with the OFZ,” Korishchenko believes.

Meanwhile, the sanctions law being developed in the United States only prohibits the purchase of new bonds of the Russian government, but does not oblige them to get rid of those already purchased.

“But foreigners still come out, and the reason for this is not related to the OFZ, but to the dynamics of the ruble,” Korishchenko is sure.

The problem is that non-residents who bought rubles did not insure themselves in case of devaluation: neglecting hedging, they increased the profitability of carry-trade. Now investors “are afraid that when they exit in six months or a year, the ruble may be 70-80-90 per dollar,” explains Korishchenko.

The ruble, according to him, is doomed to weaken, since there are no influential economic agents in Russia capable and willing to strengthen it.

Experts' opinion on whether it is worth buying dollars in August 2018

Experts unanimously say that this is not the limit and in the near future 70 rubles will become the limit of American money. Pessimistic forecasts say that by the end of this year they will ask for 100 rubles for 1 dollar. So it is worth buying foreign currency the sooner. This will make it possible to avoid financial losses.

Not only the strengthening of US economic sanctions, but also other factors are putting pressure on the national currency. For example, the low level of trading in the current month and the outflow of foreign investment have a significant impact.

Unfortunately, financial instability is always a turn-off for those trying to make money by investing. Therefore, the Russian Federation is not very attractive to investors at this time. In the near future, the situation will worsen due to restrictions.

In this case, even the fact that on August 22 oil finally rose in price and now a barrel costs $73 does not save the national currency. The reporting period passed unnoticed, which was always felt before and led to at least temporary stabilization of the ruble.

How to invest money correctly and in which currencies besides the dollar

Financial analysts recommend keeping savings in more than one currency, even one as stable as the dollar. The entire amount must be divided into approximately three parts and each of them must be exchanged for rubles, euros and, of course, American money.

The ruble cannot fall indefinitely and there will come a time when it will be fixed at a certain level, and in a good situation it may even rise. On the other hand, there have been conversations for a long time that the Russian Federation will abandon the dollar. And if such a law is adopted, then the risk of losing hard-earned money is very high.

The euro has lost its former position and is no longer the most expensive currency: its exchange rate on the international market has already approached the dollar. It is the “greens” that are gaining points every day and becoming leaders among world currencies. The White House’s policy is so well thought out that undoubtedly their national currency is not yet in danger of collapsing.

So even if the exchange rate of one of the three currencies used to store money weakens, it will not be so catastrophic, because the other two will remain. But it’s even safer to keep money in a bank or invest in securities, which is still not very popular in our latitudes, but has long been successfully practiced in the West.

Experts predicted the dollar exchange rate for September 2018

As of today, the Central Bank has reduced the dollar exchange rate, but strengthened the euro currency. So, on August 20, 2018, the dollar costs 66.87 rubles, the euro - 76.18 rubles. The exchange rate of the domestic currency will be determined by the speculative component.

According to analysts, the ruble is under pressure from sanctions rhetoric and instability in emerging world markets - Turkish, Argentine, for example. Today it is supported by a decreased volume of foreign currency purchases. Some experts predict that the dollar will strengthen against world currencies.

Many factors influence the dollar

Russians are actively interested in the further dynamics of the dollar. The Russian and American economies are interconnected, although some trade agreements have been broken. The ruble exchange rate, to one degree or another, also depends on the dollar, the position of which, in turn, depends on political and economic factors. There are more of the latter and they are more significant:
oil price per barrel;
Fed financial policy;
American bonds - their quantity and yield;
economic indices and indicators;
various cataclysms and disasters.
The oil price affects the dynamics of many currency pairs. Energy resources are one of the most important goods on the world market. When the price of oil rises, the dollar exchange rate decreases, and when the price decreases, it increases. A barrel is priced in dollars, and when oil becomes more expensive, the demand for the dollar falls, therefore, it weakens. As for the interest rate of the American Federal Reserve, the higher it is, the more citizens save and try not to incur debt obligations.

In order to confidently say what will happen to the dollar in September 2018, you need to know what the economic and political situation in the world is at the moment. Now it is aimed at stabilization; no one wants an escalation of the conflict. Donald Trump’s mood gives reason to believe that in September the ruble and dollar will be the same as they are now. Perhaps the exchange rate will adjust by 5%.

What will happen to the dollar in September 2018

In September, the dollar will begin to regain its lost positions. Most likely, the rate will consolidate in the range of 62.00 - 63.00 rubles.

Forecast by V. Tikhomirov: financial specialists will not allow the ruble to lose ground through their actions. By the end of the year it will even grow a little. Tensions between Russia and the United States are decreasing, demand for “black gold” remains stable - $65.00, Therussiantimes.com has learned. The dollar exchange rate can be 57.00 rubles.

Forecast by A. Deev: this year the oil price may fall. The decision of OPEC countries to produce cheap raw materials will lead to this. By the end of 2018, the ruble may collapse and the dollar may reach 80.00 rubles.

Forecast by A. Razuvaev: the expert also predicts a fall in the ruble, but not because of the price of oil, but against the backdrop of new sanctions against the Russian Federation. Many foreign investors will lose their debt obligations to Russia. The rate can be up to 70.00 rubles/dollar.

Forecast by A. Kuptsikevich: the analyst is more optimistic in his forecasts and believes that the exchange rate can remain at the level of last year.

Possible decisions to outlaw the American dollar in Russia will be kept secret until the government decides to confront citizens with a fait accompli.

The plan, which should soon be submitted to Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev for approval, will remain classified as DSP (for official use), he said.

As First Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Anton Siluanov previously reported, the plan is aimed at stimulating the transfer of payments in foreign trade from dollars to national currencies.

All officials emphasize that squeezing the dollar out of foreign trade payments will be carried out exclusively by tax and economic methods, without any administrative pressure on banks and business participants.

From the field of tectonics

It is unlikely that the government is actually planning something out of the ordinary, insidious, says BCS Express analyst Ivan Kopeikin.

The move away from dollar payments has actually been happening in the Russian economy for some time. Some economic entities are switching to payments in euros, others in yuan. But I don’t really understand how Russia can completely abandon the dollar in international payments - after all, for this it is necessary that its counterparties also want to do this,” he told Reedus.

Thus, if the de-dollarization of Russia’s international payments with other countries and companies does occur, this process will be tectonically lengthy. To do this, Russia needs to increase its share of world trade so much that its trading partners find it profitable to trade on its terms.

Almost all Russian exports and imports are carried out in US dollars, and neither the euro, nor especially the yuan can be compared with the volumes of “dollar” trade. This could be done if import substitution in Russia reached 100%. But this is a perspective from the category of unscientific fiction.

The dollar may slightly reduce its presence in Russia’s foreign trade operations, but it will take more than a dozen years for it to take at least second place in calculations, predicts Kopeikin.

Russia does not need this hypothesis

If Russia demands from buyers of the same oil not dollars, but another currency, they will most likely agree, but according to the principle “any whim for your money.” This means that all conversion costs and exchange rate risks will fall on Russia, if the American dollar is burning our hands so much that we are ready to suffer losses just not to touch it,” he previously told Reedus, commenting on plans to refuse from settlements in American currency.

Russia is heavily dependent on exports of raw materials and energy - and in these markets the dollar is overwhelmingly preferred. And the Kremlin is unlikely to convince its Western partners to trade in the unstable Russian currency.

It is unlikely that the ruble will enjoy much success among Russia’s eastern partners, primarily China and India. Recently, representatives of the Russian Ministry of Finance publicly complained about China’s reluctance to buy Russian bonds, since Beijing is not confident in the prospects of the Russian economy.

When talking about what the dollar exchange rate will be in the near future, the question very often arises when the exchange rate of the American currency will fall. If we discuss this problem, then first of all it should be noted that the national economy of the United States of America is very inflated. Therefore, leading experts predict a fall in American money due to the fact that the United States is experiencing a very large budget deficit.

There are international experts who make predictions that there will soon be a fall in dollars against the single European currency. Although it should be noted that the euro is by no means the most stable European currency. Despite all its shortcomings, the single European currency is the second reserve currency in the world, and an increasing number of major international investors are betting on it. As for the majority of the population, individuals and companies prefer to keep their savings in euros and American dollars.

It should be noted that the exchange rate of the American dollar was not always so free; few people know: until 1971, it was completely regulated by the state. And for more than 40 years, the exchange rate of the American currency has been determined at auction. The American government does not have any significant influence on the USD exchange rate. In this regard, it continues to grow, since the demand for it is very high, and there are currently many more buyers than those selling the US national currency. The dollar will begin to fall when the number of sellers exceeds the number of buyers.

When can we expect the dollar to crash?

Before talking about when the fall of American money is planned, it should be noted that the exchange rate of this currency largely depends on what investments in the foreign economy of Russia will be.

The exchange rate of the American currency is also influenced by factors such as the balance of exports and imports of the United States of America.

Speaking about this, one should keep in mind the national debt of the country, which is the absolute champion in the world. In addition to external debt, there is also internal debt, which is constantly growing. All this, coupled with a very large budget deficit, creates a situation where the authority of the usd is bound to fall, and this should negatively affect its exchange rate. However, a completely reasonable question arises: why have such negative forecasts not come true for so long, for what reasons does the value of the American currency remain stably high, and is it worth observing the collapse of the dollar, and if so, when and under what circumstances? And what to do after the dollar has fallen?

If we talk about when the dollar will fall, then we first need to think about what currency could replace the usd. Is there any currency in the world that today can perform the same functions as the American dollar? Leading experts in this regard cite the example of the euro, but we should not forget that the single European currency is very young; it has simply not yet been tested by time, unlike the American currency. Moreover, the euro has been going through far from the best times lately.

However, we should not forget that the economies of most European countries are in a much worse situation. Many European countries are experiencing financial instability, which is the reason why the period for the fall of the American currency is noticeably decreasing. Many European countries are experiencing a large-scale financial crisis, and some, like the United States of America, have a very large external debt, which has a negative impact on the state of the economy.

However, despite all these factors, the US dollar has been depreciating at a very rapid pace over the past few years. And the state of usd would be completely unenviable if not for the global economic crisis, when the state of most of the world's largest economies became simply catastrophic.

And even when, as a result of the global financial crisis, the price of real estate began to rapidly fall, the dollar remained the only currency to maintain its value.

When talking about the fall in the value of the US dollar, it is worth noting what contributes to its growth. In order to preserve capital, a currency basket is ideal. As a rule, this basket includes all the major world currencies, but the American dollar has the dominant rate among them. The leaders among purchases of American currency are Brazil, Russia and China.

Which currency is best for savings?

Due to the fact that most people expect the dollar to fall in the near future, a very natural question arises: in which currency is it best to keep your savings? Whatever forecasts experts make, it is best to follow the old wise rule - do not put all your eggs in one basket. If you have significant savings and need to save them for as long as possible, it is recommended to keep them in several currencies. Of course, you shouldn’t ignore US dollars, but you can’t ignore both the euro and Russian rubles. If you correctly regulate the ratio of currencies in your savings basket, then capital can not only be preserved, but also significantly increased.

Sooner or later the value of usd will fall. And this is explained primarily by the fact that the American currency, unlike most others, is not backed by gold reserves. That is, usd represents a large soap bubble, which, according to numerous forecasts, should have collapsed more than one year ago. However, for some reason this has not happened yet.

What is the future of the US dollar? Will this most famous currency in the world lose interest every year or not? When will it be possible to observe and is it really a soap bubble? The answers to these questions can be looked for anywhere, however, few would argue that this currency will remain in the center until a new single world currency emerges. If such a currency appears, the entire situation on the market will change. In this case, the smallest breath of wind, fright or noise will be enough for the dollar to collapse. According to many experts, the world is now living on a keg of gunpowder, and if it explodes, no one will care.

However, speaking about the fall of the American currency, we should not forget that this will entail the fall of the largest economy in the world. And this could have the most negative consequences for many countries of the world, so few people are interested in the rapid fall of the usd. Suffice it to say that the leading countries of the world largely depend on the USD exchange rate and are not interested in its fall.

Was the dollar on the verge of falling?

If you look at some examples from history, it becomes clear that American money has been on the verge of collapse more than once. And in order for the US dollar exchange rate to remain stable, the government had to take extreme measures. And currently, the American authorities are making every effort to ensure that the usd is maintained in an ideal position. Due to the fact that the country's development remains generally stable, this is possible for a certain time. There are, of course, doubts that this state of affairs will continue in the future, although there is a considerable threat from the euro. But the problems of those countries united by the euro are so serious that there is no need to talk about replacing the dollar yet.

In this regard, a completely reasonable question arises. If the price of the dollar is exorbitantly inflated and you can expect it to fall at any moment, then maybe it’s worth keeping your savings in gold? However, this is also not a panacea, since due to the unstable situation in the foreign exchange market, many people seek to keep their savings in gold, and this has caused the price of gold to increase significantly. However, the value of the precious metal has risen much faster than the value of the world's most popular currency.

Currently, the dollar is the most stable world currency. Its long-term peg to gold at the end of the last century, as well as the strong US economy, made the dollar a substitute for gold and foreign exchange reserves for some countries. They are actively making payments not only in America, but also in other countries, including Russia.

During the Cold War, the USSR had real opportunities to bring down the dollar and the US economy, which was on the verge of collapse after the dollar default in 1971 and the oil crisis in 1973. The CPSU Central Committee officially considered this issue.

And therefore, if the American currency falls (especially if the collapse is significant), such a situation will inevitably lead to a severe blow to the economies of these countries. Even if all sectors of their national economy were steadily developing in an upward direction.

However, the situation described above can only happen in the event of global upheavals in America itself. For example, if suddenly creditor countries (at least 2-3 major ones) ask the United States to repay their debts; Moreover, not, but, let’s say, in gold. The American currency is practically not backed by gold or other unconditional values, therefore the collapse of the US economy in such a situation is more than likely.

When can we expect the dollar to fall?

It is hardly worth waiting for or even trying to predict the exact date of such a devastating situation like the one described above. However, the dollar rate (like the rate of any other currency) falls very often even on a daily basis. And such jumps are much easier to predict.

Many factors can predict the fall of the American currency. Below are the main ones.

1. The instability of the US economy. The worsening situation of the country's national economy means a decreased interest of domestic and foreign investors in investing in various objects (for example, companies or securities) owned by a given state. This means that investors do not need to buy money from this country in order to invest in its objects. Since money is largely subject to market laws, reduced demand for it will also contribute to a decrease in its price (purchasing power, the exchange rate of a given currency in relation to others).

2. Management of deposit rates in banks. When the refinancing rate is high or low rates, it becomes more profitable to store money in other currencies. Therefore, the demand for the dollar and at the same time its exchange rate are falling.

3. Rising prices for raw materials (including oil). America is an importer (consumer) of oil and other raw materials. Therefore, an increase in the price of raw materials means a weakening of the American budget, and at the same time the American currency.

A jump in oil prices is a good indicator that the dollar will soon fall. At the same time, the price of oil is growing faster than the dollar is depreciating.

4. Natural disasters and major terrorist attacks confidently undermine the purchasing power of the currencies of any country, not just the dollar.

In addition to the above, there are many more factors that negatively affect the dollar. However, these situations are easiest to see in the markets and use for your own purposes (for example, in trading on the foreign exchange market).

Will the dollar continue to rise in 2018, or will there be a collapse? What will happen to the dollar exchange rate in the near future? Is it worth transferring accumulated funds into national currency or, conversely, urgently purchasing American currency units?

Expert opinions on these issues, as well as the quarterly forecast of the dollar/ruble exchange rate, are in the article below.

Dollar exchange rate trend in the near future

Factors shaping the value of the dollar:

• Economic situation of the issuer's country. US foreign debt continues to increase. In this connection, some experts predict the formation of a budget deficit, which cannot but affect the exchange rate of the national currency.
• Liquidity and convertibility. Today, the American dollar is the undisputed leader in demand among world currencies. Such high demand is a powerful strengthening and stabilizing factor.
• Economic crisis in some European Union countries. The unstable economic situation in Europe does not allow the euro, despite its higher value relative to the dollar, to become a worthy replacement.
• Actions aimed at strengthening the currency. The US government announces its intention to introduce a number of tax changes. According to analysts, this will not only strengthen the current dollar exchange rate, but also provoke an increase in its value to 1.10 against the euro.
• Geopolitical situation and oil prices. Economic sanctions and the fall in the value of “black gold” in general do not have a very favorable impact on the economy within the Russian Federation and on the ruble exchange rate, respectively. However, over the past year, the sharp fall in the national currency predicted by analysts did not occur. The same situation is expected in the coming year.

It is worth noting that expert opinions regarding the dollar exchange rate for 2018 differ significantly.

Much will depend on the effectiveness of the reforms planned in the United States, the cost of oil, and the general economic situation in Russia and the world.

For example, last year in 2017, the dollar was also predicted to grow, but the expected jump in the exchange rate did not occur, thanks to the relatively stable price of oil.

Forecast for spring 2018

According to analysts, the economic situation in the Russian Federation will not undergo any major changes in the first quarter of 2018. And the price for one dollar will range from 53 to 59 rubles.

The only risk factor remains the difficult situation with Ukraine. Because if the conflict escalates, it is possible that old sanctions will be tightened and/or new ones will be introduced, which could serve to destabilize the ruble.

Expert forecast for summer 2018

Forecasts for the second quarter of 2018 are more encouraging. Some experts promise a record drop in the dollar to the level of early 2015, when its value dropped to 51 rubles. The reason for such an increase in the national currency exchange rate should be the World Cup, which will be held in Russia this year. The expected influx of tourists carrying euros and dollars should lead to some depreciation of foreign currencies.

But by the end of August they predict an increase in the value of the dollar to 59-62 rubles.

What changes in the dollar exchange rate should we expect in the fall of 2018?

In the absence of such unfavorable factors as tougher sanctions, an escalation of the conflict with Ukraine or a decline in oil prices, analysts do not foresee major changes in the ruble exchange rate against the dollar.

The only exception can be considered the month of November, for which a record increase in the dollar exchange rate for the year is predicted. It is assumed that its cost can rise to 65 rubles. A possible reason is the entry into force of an international treaty from 2016 to reduce oil production.

Forecast for the end of 2018

Most experts are still inclined to believe that the ruble will be able to stabilize in December 2018. And they expect the dollar to fall to 62 rubles.

In general, analysts’ forecasts for the dollar exchange rate in 2018 are positive, and they do not foretell any truly serious changes.

You can find out about rising inflation.