If you look back at the past “ten”, it seems that all this did not happen to us. As if we weren’t standing in lines for TVs, refrigerators and sweeping buckwheat off the shelves, someone else, despite the risk of getting caught by the police, was buying unfortunate $100 at the black rate on the website prokopovi.ch. The ban on the word “crisis”, the historical phrases of Pyotr Prokopovich and the world’s largest devaluation - all this seemed to take place through the looking glass. But make no mistake: if Netflix suddenly wants to make a series about that time, each of us can be its main character. Onliner.by presented the “Decade” project, in which it recalls the most striking events of the past 10 years.

Preface. "Belarusian economic miracle"

A decade with crises and upheavals was preceded by “honey years.” Yes, yes, there was a short time when the country's economy grew by leaps and bounds.

Since 2004, Belarus' GDP has increased by 20%, or even 30%. Salaries increased by 11-20%. If in January 2004 the average accrued salary was 299,859 rubles ($139 at the then exchange rate), then in December 2008 the salaries of Belarusians tripled and exceeded a million rubles ($464 in equivalent).

Inflation slowed down, and in 2006 it reached a record low of 6.6%. Even then, the goal was to reach a salary of $500; in the middle of the “honey years,” figures of $700 and even $1000 by 2015 were announced.

The dollar exchange rate was then remarkably stable and was in the region of 2100-2180 non-denominated rubles (now it would be 21 kopecks). In those days, our growth rates were ahead of China. Our neighbors started talking about the “Belarusian economic miracle”.

One of the reasons for this miracle was oil prices. During peak years, a barrel broke through $140. We made money from the customs clearance of black gold, purchasing it from Russia at domestic prices and selling it at world prices. In addition, Russia itself grew rich from petrodollars, so it gave us loans and a growing sales market.

The “Belarusian economic miracle” began to falter at the end of 2008, when the mortgage bubble burst in the United States and the world was gripped by a financial crisis. Our country asked for a loan from the IMF, to which the fund demanded the devaluation of the national currency. The Belarusian authorities said that this was an optional condition, and did not call it very important. On December 31 it became known: the IMF provided a loan.

On the morning of January 1, 2009, having barely recovered from champagne and Olivier, we were all stunned by the news from the National Bank. The regulator announced an increase in the dollar exchange rate from 2189 rubles to 2650. It was planned that the currency basket would be stable and fluctuations would not exceed 5%.

This was a completely unpredictable step for ordinary Belarusians. A new reality has arrived. We all sharply lost 20% of our ruble nest eggs, and in terms of wages in dollar equivalent we rolled back a year.

“The Belarusian ruble should have fallen by 20% back in mid-2008”

Without waiting for a new jump, people rushed to 24-hour exchange offices in order to have time to buy dollars at the old rate. They looked for dollars and euros everywhere, even on forums.

And then Belarusians ran to the shops to save their ruble savings and buy goods before they were revalued. In the first week of 2009, 3.4 times more Vityaz TVs and DVD players were sold in the country than in the whole of 2007.

Following the growth of the dollar, imported goods became more expensive, Belarusian products began to accumulate in warehouses, problems began for those who took out foreign currency loans (then they had good, more favorable rates), housing rental prices increased, and so on.

Queues at exchange offices and panic led to President Alexander Lukashenko, while congratulating Orthodox Christians on Christmas, to say:

“We must not give up, as they do in other states, citing the crisis. There is no crisis in the country."

A couple of days later, the president explained the one-time devaluation by the crisis in Russia and the requirement of the IMF, which allocated a loan to the country.

“I’ll be honest: the devaluation of the national currency by 20% occurred for two reasons. Firstly, Russia is our major trading partner, and our exporters, with the strong Belarusian ruble, began to suffer large losses when trading on its markets. Therefore, we had to take this step. And it would have been better to carry out the devaluation at once,”- he said.

“Secondly, the International Monetary Fund offered Belarus a good loan, even better than what Russia gave. But there were two demands: not to raise wages, not to give away Belarusian rubles, because people would exchange them for dollars at exchange offices (although we didn’t quite agree, but found a compromise), and secondly, that we devalue the ruble by 20% one-time. This was the IMF requirement.

And for the almost $3 billion that they offered us, we had to do it. Moreover, we had to carry out the devaluation anyway due to our export-oriented economy.”

The President also stated that “it was necessary to collapse the Belarusian ruble by 20% back in mid-2008,” but “it was my ironclad position: to maintain the corresponding corridor in 2008. And we kept him."

Later there were rumors about the transition to the Russian ruble, the printing of new money and redenomination. Photos of supposedly new samples even began to appear online.

As we learned later, the rumors about the denomination were not exactly rumors. The current banknotes and coins were already ready at that time and were about to go into circulation. And if not for the crisis, they would have been introduced.

2011 “As long as I am the chairman of the board of the National Bank, there will never be any one-time devaluation”

Now it’s hard to imagine that in 2010 a dollar could be bought for 3,000 old rubles, or 30 kopecks in today’s money - almost 7 times cheaper! Now this seems incredible, but at that time the numbers looked frightening.

This is how many dollars we could buy now at the 2010 exchange rate.

Pyotr Petrovich, who then headed the National Bank for 12 years, confidently stated: the devaluation of 2009 was a forced measure. There is no need to further devalue the Belarusian ruble. Oh, we shouldn’t have believed him.

Rumors about an impending sharp one-time increase in the dollar exchange rate began to circulate at the end of February 2011. They were not groundless: a critical national debt, the inclusion of the printing press and advice from the IMF to tighten monetary policy. From mouth to mouth, Belarusians passed on various dates of the collapse: March 9, 14 and 16. Problems began with the purchase of currency. Dollars, euros, and then Russian rubles disappeared from exchange offices. Threads have appeared on the Onliner forum with discussions about where to get hold of at least some kind of currency other than the “bunny”.

On March 17, the head of the National Bank, Pyotr Prokopovich, complained to the president about Belarusians buying currency and urged him not to believe in provocations. Just then Pyotr Petrovich said his famous phrase: “As long as I am the chairman of the board of the National Bank, there will never be any one-time devaluation.”

“We have enough experience that we have accumulated over 15 years, and this experience suggests that this is a bad decision for Belarusians. If it’s a bad decision, we won’t implement it,”- he said and confidently declared that there would not be a collapse of not only 20-30%, but even 5%.

Exactly five days later, the regulator suspended the sale of currency to banks so that they could sell it to the public through exchangers.

The excitement intensified: people stood in queues at exchangers, kept track of the queue, set rules like “do not take more than $200 in one hand” and almost fought for the coveted “one hundred” for 3155 old rubles.

Like a Phoenix from the ashes, currency traders have been reborn from the nineties. They began to stand near the exchange offices, where miserable Belarusians came to buy dollars and euros. People began to exchange dollars in black, despite the threat of a fine of up to 100 base.

It’s not for nothing that we have become an IT country. Just at this time, a symbol of the crisis in Belarus appeared - the website prokopovi.ch, named after the then head of the National Bank. It was possible to leave orders for purchase and sale on the website. The black rate, naturally, was higher than the official one of 3,155 rubles. At first the difference was not very big - 3500-3900.

Not a crisis, but “certain temporary difficulties”

On May 23, contrary to all Prokopovich’s promises, the National Bank announced a one-time devaluation. The dollar exchange rate increased from 3,155 rubles to 4,930 in one day. Belarusian investors lost more than $1.35 billion in one day.

True, even at the new rate it was impossible to buy currency at an exchange office. On the black market, the dollar crept up - the rate reached 6,000-7,000 rubles, and abroad - even up to 6,500-9,000. It became impossible to withdraw money abroad or pay by card, and problems arose with issuing foreign currency deposits. Enterprises went to reduced working hours, businesses suffered incredible losses. Panic began.

To save what they had accumulated, Belarusians began to buy equipment and other large goods in stores at old prices. Then they rushed to buy groceries: sugar, sunflower oil, buckwheat. It got to the point where products were bought up and exported abroad to be resold. Then the authorities introduced “export” duties on the export of goods.

Huge queues, crowds of people near shopping centers - the country saw this only in the nineties. And there was reason to worry: private traders rewrote prices several times every day. Almost everyone was pawning the dollar at sky-high rates for insurance. 9000, 10,000 - it seemed unstoppable.

The price of fuel has increased especially dramatically - by almost 40%. In June, Belarusian motorists staged a “Stop Gasoline” campaign, which ended with price growth slowing down.

The President expressed confidence that the situation with the currency will be resolved in the next couple of weeks. But problems continued until September. It was clear to everyone that the country was in crisis. True, officials avoided this word. It was recommended to use the phrase “certain difficulties of a temporary nature.” By the way, a huge number of jokes have appeared on this topic.

“The course is mathematically verified and economically justified”

Meanwhile, Nadezhda Ermakova replaced Pyotr Prokopovich, who was admitted to the hospital. She admitted: there are problems, high inflation is inevitable - it will be 120%. At the same time, Nadezhda Andreevna sincerely I was surprised Why do Belarusians need a dollar?

“Well, I don’t have it, and I don’t go to the exchanger, I just don’t need it,- she said. — I didn’t have it in the nineties, and I don’t have it today. Yes, the shoes are imported, yes, they will become a little more expensive. Well, it’s okay: instead of two shoes, we’ll take off one.”

Gradually, the official dollar exchange rate reached 5,000 rubles. It was 50-70% lower than the black market rate. Then Deputy Chairman of the Board of the National Bank Taras Nadolny said that the official rate was “mathematically verified and economically justified.”

The phrase went among the people and was transformed into “matzemacski verified.”

In mid-September, additional trading in the dollar was held for the first time at the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange to determine its real market rate (the official one at that time was 5,700 rubles). Exchange trading ended at 8600, which was one and a half times higher than the “mathematically verified” level.

From November 21, the exchange began to conduct unified trading. The dollar became worth 8,680 rubles for everyone. In November, the average salary in dollar equivalent was $280. At the end of the year, it reached the level of $380. Belarusians received less than this amount only in 2016.

The World Bank then called that Belarusian devaluation the largest in the world over the past 20 years. By the way, in the same year, from November, Belarusians were obliged to buy currency using their passport. This law was repealed not so long ago - on June 1, 2017.

2014 “Planes with currency are already approaching”

In October 2014, the head of the National Bank, Nadezhda Ermakova, said that the exchange rate included in the budget would be 10,800 - 10,900 rubles, but it could be different.

Ermakova noted that only a significant devaluation of the Russian ruble exchange rate against foreign currencies can have a significant impact on the price competitiveness of Belarusian goods. Like looking into the water.

On December 15, 2014, Russia experienced “Black Monday” - a sudden collapse of the Russian ruble. The next day was “Black Tuesday” - an even greater fall in the neighboring currency. During these days, the dollar rose from 58 Russian rubles to 80.

On December 18, the President of Belarus said that the country would not “run after Russia and devalue the national ruble.”

“The issue of devaluation is not for me. But if you believe me, then it won’t happen,”- he said.

And literally a couple of hours later, the National Bank announced the introduction of a 30 percent fee on the purchase of foreign currency from December 20. In essence, it was a devaluation.

At that time, the dollar exchange rate was at 10,900 rubles, and when purchased at exchange offices, it rose to 14,170. Belarusians, remembering the past crisis, rushed to exchange offices. Dollars and euros became scarce again. People went to stores again: TVs, refrigerators, microwaves - just like in 2011, people bought everything.

On the same day, First Deputy Head of the National Bank Taras Nadolny said that the regulator was resolving the issue of foreign currency shortage.

“Many people complain that there is not enough currency in exchange offices. Now we are resolving these issues, it has been ordered from foreign banks, there will be more of it,- said Nadolny. — Planes with currency are already approaching.”

This phrase from Nadolny has again become popular among the people. It seems that then the second main meme of the year was born.

In December 2014, the official rate was 11,900 rubles, and the actual rate reached 15,470. On the black market, the rate was lower, so the currency traders returned again, as did the website named after Pyotr Prokopovich.

2015-2016. “There is no crisis, the crisis is in our heads!”

The currency rush continued into 2015. The notorious planes from Nadolny arrived only after the New Year. The fee was canceled on January 9, but the exchange rate did not fall. Within two days of trading after the cancellation, the rate immediately jumped to 14,060 rubles. Then the dollar had an arrhythmia: a week later it cost 14,900 rubles, and then exceeded 15,000. Until August, the American currency fluctuated at this level. And then the ruble began to flare up again.

On August 24-25, the dollar exceeded the mark of 17,000 rubles and only grew until the end of the year. At the same time, prices crept up again, enterprises went on a four-day workday and en masse did not renew contracts with unnecessary workers.

In November of the same 2015, the news about the denomination (the third in the history of the country) and the introduction of new money from June 2016 appeared like a bolt from the blue. But the main thing is the appearance of coins in the country.

People confused denomination and devaluation and flocked to exchange offices just in case. We celebrated the New Year with American currency of 18,569 rubles. In six years, the dollar exchange rate has increased exactly six times.

But even in 2016, the dollar still did not stop. In February it exceeded 22,000 rubles. The queues at the exchange offices have appeared again. True, small: people have significantly less money.

This year, Lukashenko uttered another of his catchphrases, which quickly became popular among the people.

“At the same time, I want to emphasize: any talk, excuse me, that has turned into chatter, about some kind of crisis is unacceptable! There is no crisis, the crisis is in our heads! Conditions have changed, and in certain areas they have changed significantly. So what? Is this the first time in our history?!”- he said.

“And not only in ours. We know how to work in these conditions, how to react to them. And I don’t need your reforms at all, the ones you propose! We must create a normal life for people, the functioning of the state and our society - that's what we need. Otherwise, instead of bread, you want to give people some kind of reform!”

This is how the text was born, which talented Belarusians later set to music.

But nevertheless, the economic situation in the country worsened: domestic debt grew, enterprises lost profits, laid off people, and for the first time, even registered unemployment almost doubled. This crisis differed from the previous two in that poor Belarusians suffered more.

Afterword. Deja vu

For the last three years of this decade, we have been forced to deal with the consequences of all the crises we have suffered. The new team of the National Bank, led by Pavel Kallaur, managed to finally let the dollar float freely. During this time, the refinancing rate decreased from 17% to a historical low of 9%, loans became cheaper, inflation again became single digits and also fell to a historical low, and they decided not to turn on the printing press anymore.

The economy has revived, wages are slowly increasing. It seems like you can breathe out a little and relax. However, recently economists are again predicting a global financial crisis. They say that the economy cannot grow endlessly, as it has done for the last 10 years. Belarusians experience persistent deja vu from these forecasts.

— If we compare the situation in the Belarusian economy in 2009 with this year, then the absolute achievement was the final transition to a floating exchange rate after 2015, as well as the desire for macroeconomic stabilization,— says Alpari senior analyst Vadim Iosub. — In other words, such strong devaluations as we had in 2011 or even at the end of 2014 are impossible in principle. Not in the sense that devaluation is impossible at all, but in the sense that a strong devaluation in a short time is impossible.

The main reason for such a strong devaluation was that the Belarusian authorities artificially lowered the exchange rate and artificially restrained it as much as they could, spending gold and foreign exchange reserves on this. And when there was no strength or reserves to hold on, the course was slightly released - and it shot out like a compressed spring.

Now no one is holding back the course. Therefore, when there are some reasons for the Belarusian ruble to strengthen, it strengthens, if there are reasons to become cheaper, it becomes cheaper. We have been seeing this for the last three weeks in the foreign exchange market.

Among the positive changes, the expert names a reduction in the emission of money and the shutdown of the printing press, as well as a reduction in assistance to state-owned enterprises, relaxations for business and other things.

— Our attitude towards reforms at the highest political level has not changed, the dominance of state property in the economy has not changed, different rights and different opportunities for private and public enterprises have not changed,- says the analyst. — Some aspects over these 10 years have even worsened: the state external debt has increased, the “bad” debts accumulated by state-owned enterprises have grown, and so on.

The most fundamental tasks remained unresolved. We need to seriously do something about the inefficient state economy, but so far no decisive measures have been taken. Inefficient state-owned enterprises, including industrial and agricultural ones, as well as government assistance that is provided to them in a variety of forms, all put a burden on our already weak economy.

The information and analytical agency "Business News" analyzed the main indicators and precursors of a currency crisis and assessed the likelihood of its occurrence before the end of 2017.

To assess the likelihood of a currency crisis, the signal method was used, which involves monitoring a given set of indicators, the dynamics of which differ significantly in pre-crisis periods.

At the first stage of the analysis, it is necessary to determine the periods during which the economy was in a state of crisis. To solve this problem, we used the exchange market pressure index (EMPI), which is the weighted average sum of the monthly growth rate of the national currency exchange rate, the growth rate of gold and foreign exchange reserves with the opposite sign and the level of the interest rate. In the calculations, the average rate for loans in national currency for a period of up to 1 year for legal entities was used as the interest rate.

Episodes of tension, when the Belarusian economy was in crisis, were considered to be periods when the EMPI index reached its average value and exceeded it by two and a half standard deviations. During 2003-2017 this happened several times: in January 2009, May and October 2011, and in January 2015. At the same time, in 2011, from mid-March to October, multiple exchange rates were recorded, which in itself is a sign of significant tension in the foreign exchange market. Therefore, January 2009, the entire period from April to October 2011, and January 2015 were considered as episodes of tension.

In the scientific community, to identify episodes of currency tension, a set of potential precursor indicators has been developed, the dynamics of which may indicate an upcoming increase in tension in the foreign exchange market. These indicators are conditionally divided into four groups: current account indicators, financial account indicators, indicators of the real and financial sectors of the economy.

In theory, it is assumed that precursor indicators begin to give signals about the approaching currency crisis in advance, i.e. during the signal window. As a rule, the length of the signal window is set at 2-3 quarters so that the government and the Central Bank have enough time to identify the crisis situation and take measures to mitigate the negative consequences. Therefore, when assessing the likelihood of a currency crisis for Belarus, the length of the signal window was set at 9 months.

For different countries, predictor indicators may work with varying degrees of effectiveness. Therefore, in accordance with the signaling approach methodology, 6 indicators were selected for Belarus that demonstrated the best results when tested. In particular, these indicators were the real effective exchange rate, imports of goods and services, international reserve assets, the ratio of M2 to international reserve assets, the ratio of the interest rate on loans to the rate on deposits in the national currency and the volume of deposits adjusted for inflation. The data frequency was one month.

Subsequently, based on the best indicators for Belarus, a composite index of currency stability was calculated, the dynamics of which increased in the signal windows before the crises of 2009, 2011 and 2015. However, due to the fact that this index has a certain inaccuracy, its value before the 2011 crisis began to increase only the day before.

In turn, for the crises of 2009 and 2015, a significant increase in the value of the composite index was observed nine months before the currency crisis.

Among the indicators-precursors of a currency crisis that were included in the calculation of the composite index, 3 out of 6 crossed their threshold value in recent months and were in the area of ​​critical values.

The first of them was the index of the real effective exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble. The calculated threshold value for this indicator was minus 2.9%. The real effective exchange rate has been below its calculated threshold since January 2016. Typically, an overvalued real exchange rate and a weak external sector create the preconditions for a currency crisis.

The second indicator-precursor of a currency crisis, which was in the critical range, was the ratio of the loan rate to the deposit rate in the national currency. The calculated threshold value for this indicator was 171.2%. The area of ​​critical values ​​for this indicator is above the threshold level. In many cases, before the onset of currency crises, there is an increase in the gap between lending rates and deposit rates. As a rule, this is explained by the expansion of domestic credit. In this situation, the share of bad loans increases, and banks raise loan rates in order to compensate for possible losses from non-repaid loans. Deposit rates are also rising, but to a lesser extent.

The third indicator that gave signals was the volume of deposits adjusted for inflation. For this indicator, the calculated threshold value was 105.5%. Accordingly, the area of ​​critical values ​​for this indicator is below the threshold level. Thus, the outflow of deposits from the banking system may also create preconditions for the emergence of a currency crisis.

Based on the aggregated index of currency stability, the probability of a currency crisis was calculated. The results obtained show that the probability of its occurrence before the end of 2017 is 53.3%. The first index outlier was observed in January 2016. At the same time, maintaining the probability of a currency crisis at the same level for a long time may cause caution. It is also worth noting that the dynamics of the real effective exchange rate index of the Belarusian ruble has been improving in recent months and tends to leave the area of ​​critical values, which will subsequently reduce the likelihood of a currency crisis. In addition, the transition of the National Bank from a fixed exchange rate regime to a floating one in 2015 allowed to reduce the level of tension in the economy and provided the regulator with more mechanisms to regulate the situation in the country’s foreign exchange market.

Lev Margolin, economist:

– There will be no significant differences in the country’s economy compared to this year. The decline will continue. Perhaps less than this year, but there will be no growth. How significant this decline will be depends on the outcome of negotiations with Russia on oil and gas.

As for the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble to the dollar, if the National Bank continues its tight monetary policy, the dollar movement next year will be within 10% - maximum 20%. If a shrinking economy forces massive cash injections in the form of loans, then the rate increase could be 50% or even 100%. Everything is in the hands of the authorities.

People's wages will continue to fall. To reverse this trend, the country needs investment, primarily foreign. But they are not expected. The second way to increase wages is through massive job cuts. But the authorities most likely will not dare to do this.

Unemployment will certainly rise. Enterprises will reduce production volumes, demand for their products will continue to fall, and they will try to get rid of unnecessary ballast in the form of labor.

Anton Boltochko, economist:

– Next year is a year in which important economic and political decisions will need to be made. Without them, it will not be possible to wait out or survive the current economic situation once again.

If we nevertheless accept the inertial scenario, in which economic policy remains at the same level, in the same form as now, then we will face another year of recession and a decline in GDP. The economic picture can be called Nebrezhnev's modern Belarusian economic stagnation.

The decline in household incomes will continue, unemployment, both registered and unregistered, will increase due to the difficult financial situation of enterprises. I don’t believe in the 9% inflation that the authorities are talking about. It will be higher, and its level will affect the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble to the dollar.

This year it was supported by the donation of currency by the population. Next year, unfortunately, Belarusians will have less money, and as a result we will see a weakening of the national currency. There will be no landslide devaluation, and, most likely, the Belarusian ruble will fall in price by the level of inflation with minor deviations.

Yaroslav Romanchuk, economist:

– Next year will be more difficult than this one. The economic recession will not end. How much it will fall in 2017 – by 1% or 4% – will depend on how many conditional black swans will fly to Belarus. We will, no doubt, receive a couple from Russia in the form of supplies of oil, gas, prices for potash fertilizers and terms of trade on the Russian market. Exports will fall, there is nowhere to expect investment.

The real estate market will continue to fall.

State-owned enterprises will actively lay off workers, and unemployment in the country will de facto rise to 500 thousand people. If the company performs well, the salary of its remaining employees will be 250-400 dollars in a very good scenario. If the company falls under restructuring, 150–200 dollars will seem like happiness.

The National Bank will most likely not be able to continue its tight monetary policy as this year, and inflation will be more than 10%. A dollar will cost three Belarusian rubles, and in a pessimistic scenario even more.

Over the past month, almost all reputable international organizations have worsened the economic forecast for Belarus. They expect that the Belarusian economy will experience low growth rates in 2020, close to stagnation. This scenario is shared by Belarusian economists.

Potential of the Belarusian economy: diagnosis of creditors

On the eve of the New Year, many organizations are revising forecasts for Belarus and say that without structural changes in the economy, economic growth rates in 2020 will be very low.

Thus, the World Bank believes that the Belarusian economy will slow down in 2020-2021. GDP growth will be 0.9% next year, and 0.5% in 2021.

Our longtime eastern lender, the Eurasian Development Bank, is a little more optimistic about Belarus, predicting growth of 1.5% in 2020-2021.

The International Monetary Fund issued the least optimistic forecast and expects growth of 0.3% in our country next year, that is, in fact, stagnation.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development looks at our country a little more positively. According to the bank's forecast, GDP growth in Belarus will be 1.2% in 2020. By the way, compared to the previous (May) forecast for the growth of the Belarusian economy by 0.6 percentage points.

According to the EBRD, Belarus' economic prospects depend on foreign direct investment. By the way, the EBRD has been preparing several privatization transactions in our country for several years, but so far none of them have led to an influx of foreign direct investment.

“Belarus is unlikely to be able to take the next step in development on its own; it will require foreign direct investment,”- commented upon request BelaPAN economic prospects for Belarus First Vice-President of the EBRD Jurgen Rigterink.

The influx of foreign investment into Belarus will depend on the outcome of privatization projects, according to the EBRD.

“We understand the government's concerns and caution about privatization. However, it is obvious that in certain industries (the banking sector, the food industry) the conditions have already been created [for privatization], and the government should take the next step,”- said Rigterink.

According to the EBRD, financial stability achieved in the country is an important condition for economic growth, but not sufficient.

“Without breakthrough steps to improve the business environment, without attracting investors through privatization and commercialization of state-owned enterprises, it will be very difficult to accelerate the pace of economic growth and bring the standard of living in Belarus closer to neighboring countries”, - says the head of the EBRD office in Belarus Alexander Pivovarsky.

In the short term, the rate of economic growth in Belarus depends on the outcome of negotiations with Russia, the EBRD believes.

“Economic growth is expected to slow to 1.3% in 2019 and 1.2% in 2020. Future growth depends on Belarus' prospects of receiving compensation for the Russian tax maneuver, the consequences of which [for the Belarusian economy] remain unclear,” the EBRD said in its macroeconomic review.

Best case scenario and greatest threat

Belarusian economists generally share the forecasts of international financial organizations and expect that the country will experience low economic growth rates - around 1% (maximum 2%).

Thus, the IPM Research Center assumes that in 2019-2021 the economic growth rate in Belarus will be 1.2%, 1% and 0.8%, respectively. The basic forecast is based on the fact that Russia will not compensate our country for the consequences of the tax maneuver, and in the face of falling revenues, the authorities will not have the opportunity to support economic growth.

In turn, the Belarusian Economic Research and Educational Center (BEROC) assumes that in 2020, GDP growth by 2% is possible, taking into account the fact that next year a significant increase in pre-election budget expenditures is expected (to increase salaries), which will allow increasing domestic demand.

However, the medium-term forecast for all independent experts is the same: without structural reforms in the economy, growth will be close to 1-2%, or even zero. This is what many observers expect.

“Low economic growth is the most likely outcome in the current scenario, since there are no qualitative changes in the economy,”- noted in a conversation with a correspondent BelaPAN BEROC Research Fellow Maria Akulova.

The most unfavorable medium-term scenario, according to experts, is that the current Belarusian-Russian oil and gas negotiations will lead to a gradual loss of economic sovereignty.

By the way, the Ambassador of Belarus to Russia Vladimir Semashko recently stated that Belarus will be able to receive full compensation for the tax maneuver in 2022 after the unification of tax legislation with Russia.

By the way, the draft documents on deepening economic integration with Russia initially included a clause on the adoption of a unified Tax Code of Belarus and Russia.

“If there is a unified Tax Code, this will mean that Belarus will lose the opportunity to independently pursue fiscal policy and determine it in accordance with its needs. If we agree to a single Tax Code with Russia, we will lose part of our economic sovereignty,”- noted in a comment for BelaPAN Senior Researcher at BEROC Dmitry Kruk.

According to experts, the scenario of deepening economic integration with Russia should not be the main and only vector of Belarus’ foreign policy.

“Negotiations on deepening economic integration with Russia are causing concern; I would not like to fall under even greater influence from Moscow. Belarus and Russia currently have low rates of economic growth, and rapprochement with our eastern neighbor will not bring additional benefits to our economy,”- Maria Akulova believes.

For economic development, it is necessary to build relations not only with Russia, but also to take into account the experience of economic policies of Western countries, experts say.

“The IMF is ready to provide long-term and cheap funds to carry out reforms in the Belarusian public sector and increase the country’s economic potential. We need to look for solutions to economic problems not only in the East, but also in the West.”, - notes Akulova.

Perhaps in 2020, if the threat to economic sovereignty becomes more obvious, the authorities will seriously think about it. In the meantime, official Minsk is in no hurry to build an economic policy taking into account the recommendations of Western creditors, economists say.

“The most favorable scenario for the Belarusian economy is policy reformatting, readiness to carry out structural reforms in various areas and the resumption of negotiations with the IMF on a loan program. However, so far there is no political will to accept this scenario,”- Dmitry Kruk summarized.

Under what scenarios can the Belarusian economy develop and by how much can the dollar exchange rate change? Which industries will be “depressed” next year, and which, on the contrary, have good prospects. This was discussed at the organized “About Business.” Capital Day conference on December 9. The conference partners were the first banking forex platform in Belarus MTBankFX and the Group Volkswagen in the Republic of Belarus .

We publish some key thoughts of the economic observer “About Business.” Dmitry Ivanovich, member of the board of directors and one of the founders of the investment company Uniter Vladimir Vasilevsky and senior analyst at Alpari Vadim Iosub.

Alternative economic development forecast from Dmitry Ivanovich

— When forecasting economic development, the Belarusian government and business, of course, focus on what will happen in Russia.

The Bank of Russia's forecast for 2017–2019 provides several options. At the most negative level - if the oil price is at $25 per barrel - there will be no growth in the Russian economy in the coming years.

Forecast of the Bank of Russia for 2017−2019

Data: Bank of Russia, own calculations

It can also be noted that the world economy is guided by an average GDP growth rate of 3−3.6%. The Russian economy will grow at a slower rate for at least three years. This is something to keep in mind for those thinking about exporting and investing in foreign markets.

In Belarus, a forecast on key parameters of economic development next year was compiled and posted on the Ministry of Finance website. This forecast assumed a GDP growth rate of 0.2%. And the country's budget was adopted at this growth rate.

However, some time later, after a meeting with the president, it was announced that the GDP growth rate in 2017 would be 1.7%. That is, we will strive for a GDP of 1.7%, but the budget includes 0.2%.

At the same time, I would rate the Ministry of Finance’s forecast as realistic, because the price of oil is set at $35 per barrel.

Key parameters of the forecast for the development of the Belarusian economy for 2017

In turn, I can offer my own, alternative forecast for economic development. It is based on the fact that several factors will affect business next year:

• Belarus plans to conclude a loan agreement with the IMF. If this happens, we may begin to reform the economy
• Presence/absence of restrictions on foreign markets for Belarusian goods. With a decline in oil prices, restrictions on Belarusian products on the Russian market will increase
• The price of oil and the volume of its supplies are one of the key factors for the Belarusian economy. I assume that Russian oil supplies to Belarus will be carried out in full next year.

In a realistic forecast, we will sign an agreement with the IMF, and this will reduce the burden on the budget, which includes significant costs for servicing external debts - $ 3.1 billion. I also assume that if oil prices change upward, Russia will reduce restrictive measures regarding Belarusian goods.

Alternative forecast for 2017 for the Belarusian economy

Data: Dmitry Ivanovich’s own calculations

How will key industries fare in 2017?

1. In the “negative” there will be construction sector. It does not assume growth under any of the scenarios. A housing construction plan for 2016–2020 has been adopted in Belarus. There is a recorded figure of 3.5 million square meters, starting from 2017 to 2020. And there is another figure: the construction of individual housing. According to forecasts, it will grow from 1.2 million square meters in 2016 to 1.4 million. But how to build it is a big question. It is assumed that, for example, in Minsk this housing will be built outside the Moscow Ring Road. But there are no sites or infrastructure there today.

2. I think there will be a slight minus retail trade. I don't expect real wages to rise next year, as the official forecast suggests. Most likely, there will be negative dynamics in consumer demand.

3. On the plus side, I hope, there will be a sphere oil refining— when signing an agreement with Russia on oil supplies. If this year we receive about 18.5 million tons of oil, then next year, as I have already said, supplies to our oil refineries in the amount of 24.5 million tons are possible.

4. With optimistic scenarios for economic development, the budget will receive additional funds. Wages will rise, this will stimulate industry And agriculture. Restrictive measures regarding Belarusian products on the Russian market will either be absent or small.

After all, as soon as the price of oil rises in Russia, optimism grows there - both industrial and consumer.

Vladimir Vasilevsky: The growth driver is still unknown to anyone

— My forecasts will be pessimistic. Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan, says that you can hope for the best, but you need to prepare for the worst. In my experience, this tactic has been yielding results for the last 7-8 years.

In 2017, you need to be prepared for some economic disasters. There will be no growth. I don’t believe in “bottom” either. There will be another decline. Why do I think this? Because overall the old economic model has broken down. We had energy subsidies from Russia. We had access to the Russian market, which has a lot of money and was constantly growing. Privileged access to a large, constantly growing, rich market.

There was state support and modernization of enterprises. Steady wage growth. Generous financing of the social sphere.

Now there are no energy subsidies; the situation on the Russian market, which is key for us, is unfavorable. There is a decline in the “holy trinity”: such areas as the export of goods, housing construction, and food.

From my point of view, The main problem now is the problem of debt:

• Public debt is accumulating
• Debts of enterprises accumulate: in the banking system, non-banking system. There is no trend towards a reversal or slowdown of this process

For the economy to develop, some kind of growth driver needs to appear. But this driver is unknown to anyone today. Yes, after oil prices of $25 per barrel, we now see a price of $55. And this will gradually begin to pull our economy along with Russia. Maybe that's what we can hope for. But this is a rare “white swan” against the background of black ones.

Which industries will not develop?. Many sectors are linked to the old economic model. They will remain in crisis. This applies to both construction and the real estate market.

For example, I once rented out one of the premises that I own for €28 per square meter and thought that it would be nice to rent it out for €30-32. Now I rent it for € 8 and... I’m happy.

Real estate market today in the state of the famous "Schrodinger's Cat". There are different opinions whether he is alive or dead - he has already fallen, and it can’t get any worse, or he is alive, and he still has to die. I think that overall the real estate market is in the first third of a decline, a moderate one. And that we still have to go through the next stage, after which the market will approach the bottom. Now, in my opinion, prices on the market are supported by everyone’s interest in not allowing them to fall. People who own apartments think that a good apartment cannot be cheap. Enterprises that built workshops and warehouses think the same thing. Banks that gave loans secured by real estate at prices of 2012-2013 want to think the same thing...

Sectors tied to household income may also experience a decline. This services to the population, This import. Most companies that import do not expect anything good. For the population, the end consumers, not only are wages falling, but mandatory expenses are also rising. First of all, related to utilities. Accordingly, the income that the population can arbitrarily dispose of and choose what to spend on is reduced.

Possible growth points:

1. Export industries, which restored price competitiveness thanks to cheaper labor.

For example, at one Belarusian metalworking enterprise, over the past 2 years the average salary has fallen by 40%. And productivity increased by 20%. In general, the company's economy is doing well. Customers are in the area related to the Russian defense industry.

As far as I know, such things are observed in light industry, and in general in many private businesses, where there is a share of exports and where there is a significant share of local labor. It has not only become cheaper, but also more accessible, because a number of specialists have appeared on the market who were not there before.

2. The example above shows that growth points are possible in enterprises focused on countercyclical sectors in Russia: "defense industry"(it is financed from the budget), agriculture(large Russian businesses are investing in this area, filling the vacuum that has arisen due to sanctions).

3. Production of “inferior goods”(with negative income elasticity) in the consumer segment. These are the goods for which demand increases as income falls.

Examples include second-hand clothing stores. When there is money, people don't go to these stores. When there is no money, it turns out that there are queues for these goods. This is an abstract example. Those who work in the consumer sector can find concrete examples for themselves. I think we need to concentrate on these areas (products for which demand increases as incomes fall) - because there will not be a quick “rebound”.

Who will win in a crisis? In a crisis, the one who has free cash wins. It is important to realize that the crisis we are in is not a V-shaped one. Those. it is neither a quick fall nor a quick rebound. The current crisis is L-shaped. If you imagine it on a graph, this is a quick fall - and then some more or less long horizontal part of the graph. Which can be with a slight positive or negative bias. It will not be possible to “sit out” such a crisis.

Anti-crisis tactics, in my opinion, can consist of several stages:

• The fastest possible reduction in expenses, restoring the balance of income and expenses.
• Purchase of undervalued cash-generating assets. The key word here is not "undervalued", but "cache-generating". If an asset begins to immediately bring in money and does not stretch your pocket, this is something you can buy
• Timely restructuring of existing loans. What businesses underestimate. As an investment consultant, I observe in many cases how enterprises whose financial situation is deteriorating continue to properly service their bank loans.

They are trying to pay interest monthly and repay the loan. But at the same time they say that their situation is getting worse and soon they will not be able to pay. But the bank doesn’t understand this. Why doesn't he understand? Because he sees: loans are serviced, payments are received every month. And in the bank's opinion, everything is fine. And when it comes to the point where things have gotten really bad, a businessman comes to the bank with the keys to the factory. But then it is too late to engage in debt restructuring.

Therefore: write panic letters, tell banks about the problems. And then they will begin to “hear” you. Banks, at least private ones, are already coming to this understanding - and are responding adequately.

What will the dollar exchange rate be in 2017 - opinion of Alpari analyst Vadim Iosub

Of course, this depends not only on the Belarusian economy. The answer to the question of what the dollar, euro, and Russian ruble exchange rates will be cannot be sought in isolation from what will happen to the American, European and Russian economies.

Here's what we saw in 2016:

• At the beginning of the year, there was a collapse in the stock markets, the price of oil fell, there were problems with inflation in the United States - there was no way to raise its level to the desired levels
• The Fed did not raise rates throughout the year.
• Now at the last Fed meeting, which ends on December 14, the probability of a rate increase is close to 100%. Most likely, this is already taken into account by the market

The intrigue is how many times the Fed will raise rates in 2017 - and, accordingly, how fast the dollar will grow next year.

It is also interesting that today the EUR/USD pair is at the same level as at the last Capital Day conference in 2015. And I predict a further decline, quite possibly to 1 euro per dollar.

Actually, I will use this figure in my forecasts for the Belarusian ruble exchange rate. In the coming years, it cannot be ruled out that the euro will continue to decline against the dollar. This ratio is determined by the divergent monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.

What could be the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble against the dollar in 2017.

Forecast 1. Basic. It is that:

• Inflation next year will be kept within the planned 9%
• The value of the currency basket will increase by the same 9%
• And at the same time, the ratios in cross rates between the currencies EUR/USD and USD/RUB will remain at the same level

Here is the exchange rate for buying dollars, euros and 100 Russian rubles:

• USD (beginning of 2017 - end of 2017): 2 - 2.2
• EUR (beginning of 2017 - end of 2017): 2.15 - 2.35
• 100 RUB (beginning of 2017 - end of 2017): 3.1 - 3.35

Forecast 2. Modeling. It is unlikely that the ratio in cross rates between the dollar, euro and Russian ruble will remain at the same level throughout 2017. Even though the currency basket at the end of the year will change by the projected 9%.

Therefore, we will make the assumption that the cross rates of these currencies may be in a floating range of around 10%. Given that the cost of currencies from the currency basket will change by +9%:

• Change in EUR/USD: 0.97 - 1.18 (+/-10%)
• Change in USD/RUB: 58 – 71 (+/-10%)

Given the given assumptions and the same weakening of the Belarusian ruble against the currency basket, the range of rates at the end of 2017 could be:

• USD 2.03 – 2.33
• EUR 2.05 – 2.64
• 100 RUB: 3.15 – 3.64

Forecast 3. Subjective. We can assume that the EUR/USD ratio at the end of the year will be at parity (equal to one, as I mentioned above). In this case, with the same growth of the currency basket, in proportion to inflation, the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble against the dollar can be the following indicators:

• EUR/USD – 1
• USD/RUB — 67
• EUR/RUB — 67

Belarusian ruble exchange rate at the end of 2017 (forecast):

• USD - 2.25
• EUR – 2.25
• 100 RUB — 3.37